2010 World Cup Prediction Competition

Locutus

King of the Collective
Joined
Oct 30, 2001
Messages
365
Location
Hengelo/Enschede, the Netherlands
Hey guys,
I organised this for the last few incarnations on Apolyton (but before I got involved it's been running in some form almost since that site's inception). Now I've moved to WePlayCiv and sadly there's not much of a sports community there, so I figured I'd take it cross-site this time, running a contest across WePlayCiv, Apolyton and CFC -- that allows for some cross-site competition as well.

The concept is simple: we have a competition to predict the outcome of matches and the overall tournament winners and top scorer for the upcoming World Cup. I will maintain one ranking for the three sites (I can colour-code people by site though) but will run separate threads everywhere so people don't have to go beyond their comfort zone to participate.

Of course, I don't want to step on anyone's toes here, if you guys want to run your own internal competition that's fine by me. But as nothing seems to have been started yet with only 75 hours to go to the opening match kick-off (other than a fantasy league, which is very different), and considering you gotta give people enough time to make their initial predictions, I reckon I'm not getting in anyone's way.

The rules, based on previous runs on 'Poly, are the following (I'm happy to discuss changes but there's not much time to debate them):

Things to Predict
1) The new World Champions.
2) The top scorer in the tournament.
3) The 8 group winners in the first round.
4) The 8 second-placed countries in the first round.
5) The scores for each match.

Scoring System
1) 10pts for predicting the World Champions, 3pts if they are runner-up.
2) 10pts for predicting the top scorer, 3pts if they are runner-up.

3) 5pts for predicting the winners in each group. 2pts if they actually finish second.
4) 5pts for predicting the second-placed countries in each group. 2pts if they actually finish first.

5) For each match, the following number of points is awarded. Format: 2+2 means 2pts if the outcome (win/draw/loss) is correctly predicted + 2 points if the exact score is predicted.
In the group stage: 2+2
In the last 16: 3+3
In the quarter finals: 4+4
In the semi finals: 5+5
In the final and 3rd place play-off: 6+6

Other Rules
1) Predictions can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick-off.
2) Predictions for group winners can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick-off of the opening match of the group in question.
3) Predictions for champions and top scorer can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick-off of the opening match of the (player's) country that you are making a prediction for. In other words, you can predict as World Champions any country that hasn't played their first match yet, and for top scorer you can pick any player from a country that has yet to play.
4) If you wish to change your prediction, you must do so in a new post. Do not edit posts in which you make predictions for this competition.
6) The result used is the result after 90 minutes (+ injury time). That means extra time and penalty shoot-outs DO NOT count.
7) In the group stage, should lots need to be drawn for placing teams, the final placings are the placing as per the draw of lots.
8) The top scorer is the player who receives the FIFA Golden Shoe award, which includes goals scored during extra time but does not include goals scored during penalty shoot-outs.

Note: rules 2 and 3 were instituted to allow late entries to still participate in as many predictions as possible, and not be screwed out of predicting the World Champions or top scorer just because they missed say the opening day matches.
 
For those not familiar (we had a couple of confused yanks participating the last time around), the 2010 FIFA World Cup will be held from 11 June to 11 July in South Africa. The tournament consists of two stages, a group stage and a knock-out stage.

In the group stage every country plays one match against every other country from the group that they have been assigned to through a draw. For each match 3 points are awarded for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss. A ranking is kept based on these points and the two teams that finish first and second in each group progress to the knock-out stage (there's an elaborate tie-breaking system I won't bore you with -- ask if you care).

In the first round of the knock-out stage the first-placed countries from the previous stage will play a second-placed country from another group. From here on it's a single-elimination tournament until the World Champion emerges during the final on 11 July (the full bracket can be found in the Wikipedia article linked above). In this stage, if there is a draw after regulation time (90 minutes), 30 minutes of extra time is added, and if there's still a draw after that the winner will be decided by a penalty shoot-out. (Note that extra time and penalty shoot-outs are not taken into account in this prediction competition, so for us draws are still possible in this stage.)

More details can be found on Wikipedia or the official website.


Groups

Group A:
South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France

Group B:
Argentina
Nigeria
Korea Republic
Greece

Group C:
England
USA
Algeria
Slovenia

Group D:
Germany
Australia
Serbia
Ghana

Group E:
Netherlands
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon

Group F:
Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia

Group G:
Brazil
Korea DPR
Côte d'Ivoire
Portugal

Group H:
Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile


Matches (Group Stage)

11 June
South Africa vs Mexico
Uruguay vs France

12 June
Korea Republic vs Greece
Argentina vs Nigeria
England vs USA

13 June
Algeria vs Slovenia
Serbia vs Ghana
Germany vs Australia

14 June
Netherlands vs Denmark
Japan vs Cameroon
Italy vs Paraguay

15 June
New Zealand vs Slovakia
Côte d'Ivoire vs Portugal
Brazil vs Korea DPR

16 June
Honduras vs Chile
Spain vs Switzerland
South Africa vs Uruguay

17 June
Argentina vs Korea Republic
Greece vs Nigeria
France vs Mexico

18 June
Germany vs Serbia
Slovenia vs USA
England vs Algeria

19 June
Netherlands vs Japan
Ghana vs Australia
Cameroon vs Denmark

20 June
Slovakia vs Paraguay
Italy vs New Zealand
Brazil vs Côte d'Ivoire

21 June
Portugal vs Korea DPR
Chile vs Switzerland
Spain vs Honduras

22 June
France vs South Africa
Mexico vs Uruguay
Greece vs Argentina
Nigeria vs Korea Republic

23 June
Slovenia vs England
USA vs Algeria
Australia vs Serbia
Ghana vs Germany

24 June
Paraguay vs New Zealand
Slovakia vs Italy
Cameroon vs Netherlands
Denmark vs Japan

25 June
Korea DPR vs Côte d'Ivoire
Portugal vs Brazil
Chile vs Spain
Switzerland vs Honduras


Match Schedule (Knock-out Stage)


Last 16

26 June
Uruguay vs Korea Republic
USA vs Ghana

27 June
Germany vs England
Argentina vs Mexico

28 June
Netherlands vs Slovakia
Brazil vs Chile

29 June
Paraguay vs Japan
Spain vs Portugal

Quarter Finals

2 July
Netherlands vs Brazil
Uruguay vs Ghana

3 July
Argentina vs Germany
Paraguay/Japan vs Spain/Portugal

Semi Finals

July 6
Uruguay vs Netherlands

July 7
Germany vs Spain

3rd Place Play-off

July 10
Uruguay/Netherlands vs Germany/Spain

Final

July 11
Uruguay/Netherlands vs Germany/Spain


I'm running this from a Google doc so anyone can follow along if they want. But no worries, I'll be posting daily updates here of the rankings so you don't have to go anywhere else.

Apolyton thread: http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?t=191669
CivFanatics thread: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=367432
WePlayCiv thread: http://www.weplayciv.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3636
 
My initial predictions (I'll probably post most of my predictions on WPC as that's my home turf, but to get things going I'll duplicate the first set(s)):

World Champions: Brazil
Top Scorer: Lionel Messi

Group A:
1. France
2. Mexico

Group B:
1. Argentina
2. Greece

Group C:
1. England
2. USA

Group D:
1. Germany
2. Serbia

Group E:
1. Netherlands
2. Denmark

Group F:
1. Italy
2. Paraguay

Group G:
1. Brazil
2. Portugal

Group H:
1. Spain
2. Chile

South Africa vs Mexico 1-2
Uruguay vs France 1-2
 
Champions - Spain
Top scorer - Villa

Group A - Mexico, France
Group B - Argentina, Korea
Group C - England, USA
Group D - Germany, Australia
Group E - Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F - Italy, Slovakia
Group G - Brazil, Portugal
Group H - Spain, Chile


South Africa 1-2 Mexico
Uruguay 2-3 France

Korea 1-0 Greece
Argentina 3-1 Nigeria
England 1-1 USA

Algeria 2-1 Slovenia
Serbia 2-0 Ghana
Germany 4-0 Australia
 
So we just use the template and make our own predictions?
Here is our previous attempt done by Marla Singer. [thread]171288[/thread]

Basically we predicted everything right from the start and got points from there.
 
I hope this is the format you want:

Champions - Spain
Top scorer - Cacau

Group A:
France
Mexico

Group B:
Argentina
Greece


Group C:
England
Slovenia

Group D:
Germany
Serbia

Group E:
Netherlands
Cameroon

Group F:
Italy
Slovakia

Group G:
Brazil
Portugal

Group H:
Spain
Switzerland


Matches (Group Stage)

11 June
South Africa vs Mexico 1:2
Uruguay vs France 0:2

12 June
Korea Republic vs Greece 1:1
Argentina vs Nigeria 2:0
England vs USA 1:0

13 June
Algeria vs Slovenia 0:1
Serbia vs Ghana 2:1
Germany vs Australia 3:1

14 June
Netherlands vs Denmark 2:0
Japan vs Cameroon 0:0
Italy vs Paraguay 1:0

15 June
New Zealand vs Slovakia 1:1
Côte d'Ivoire vs Portugal 1:2
Brazil vs Korea DPR 4:0

16 June
Honduras vs Chile 1:1
Spain vs Switzerland 3:1
South Africa vs Uruguay 1:0

17 June
Argentina vs Korea Republic 2:0
Greece vs Nigeria 1:1
France vs Mexico 2:1

18 June
Germany vs Serbia 2:1
Slovenia vs USA 1:0
England vs Algeria 2:0

19 June
Netherlands vs Japan 3:1
Ghana vs Australia 2:1
Cameroon vs Denmark 1:0

20 June
Slovakia vs Paraguay 1:0
Italy vs New Zealand 1:0
Brazil vs Côte d'Ivoire 2:1

21 June
Portugal vs Korea DPR 3:0
Chile vs Switzerland 1:2
Spain vs Honduras 3:1

22 June
France vs South Africa 2:0
Mexico vs Uruguay 1:0
Greece vs Argentina 1:3
Nigeria vs Korea Republic 1:1

23 June
Slovenia vs England 1:1
USA vs Algeria 2:0
Australia vs Serbia 1:2
Ghana vs Germany 1:3

24 June
Paraguay vs New Zealand 1:0
Slovakia vs Italy 0:1
Cameroon vs Netherlands 1:2
Denmark vs Japan 1:1

25 June
Korea DPR vs Côte d'Ivoire 1:2
Portugal vs Brazil 1:2
Chile vs Spain 0:3
Switzerland vs Honduras 2:1
 
World Champions: The Netherlands
Top Scorer: Cesc Fàbregas

Group A:
1. France
2. Uruguay

Group B:
1. Argentina
2. South Korea

Group C:
1. England
2. Algeria

Group D:
1. Germany
2. Australia

Group E:
1. Netherlands
2. Cameroon

Group F:
1. Italy
2. Paraguay

Group G:
1. Brazil
2. Côte d'Ivoire

Group H:
1. Spain
2. Chile

South Africa vs Mexico 0-0
Uruguay vs France 1-2

Korea Republic vs Greece 2-1
Argentina vs Nigeria 0-0
England vs USA 2-0

Algeria vs Slovenia 1-0
Serbia vs Ghana 0-1
Germany vs Australia 1-0

Netherlands vs Denmark 2-0
Japan vs Cameroon 0-2
Italy vs Paraguay 0-0

New Zealand vs Slovakia 0-3
Côte d'Ivoire vs Portugal 0-0
Brazil vs Korea DPR 0-0

Honduras vs Chile 0-1
Spain vs Switzerland 4-0
 
So we just use the template and make our own predictions?
Here is our previous attempt done by Marla Singer. [thread]171288[/thread]

Basically we predicted everything right from the start and got points from there.

Basically, yeah. Looks like marla's system was a little different, but not *that* much so -- there are only so many ways to slice a cake, and it's still cake in the end.

I reckon the main difference is in the flexibility: with her system you had to get almost all of your predictions in before the first match was played, while on Apolyton we've found over the years that you get more people playing by being as flexible as possible. Frankly, I find predicting all match results in one sitting to be a bit of a chore, but I know people that like it that way. Personally I prefer looking only 1 or maybe 2 matchdays ahead at a time. The Poly system allows both approaches, or anything in between. Also, in this system you can be a few days late and still predict who will be the overall winner (though some teams will be disqualified for you), or you can even jump in half-way through and accept you probably won't win the competition, but you can have some fun seeing how well you do comparatively. What's more, it changes the dynamics quite a bit if after the first match you come to the conclusion that Mexico wasn't all you had it cranked up to be (or maybe they suffer some key injuries or suspensions) and you can still adjust your predictions for the rest of the tournament. The only predictions you're really stuck with are the group winners, world champion and top scorer, so there's still a bit of a long-term vision involved as well.

Also very notably, I will be posting daily ranking updates so you can see exactly how well everyone is doing from day to day and if you're falling or rising through the ranks. By comparison, it looks like Marla only posted the results once the entire competition was over so you had no clue about how well you were doing, and no opportunity to change strategy if it turns out you're not so hot compared to everyone else.

The scoring in marla's system is handled a little differently as well, with more points overall and a more complex way of distributing them. My system is very simplistic: 2 points for predicting the tendency 2 for getting an exact score (or however many points for a given round). There are no points for predicting an accurate lead, no losing of points for getting things wrong, no different scoring systems for draws vs wins/losses, no points for penalty shoot-out predictions and no points for predicting who makes it to the next round (other than who makes it out of the groups) -- beyond the group stage only the match results after 90 minutes count.

There's something to be said for either system here, and one could easily come up with any number of hybrids of the two if one were so inclined -- it's a matter of personal preference what you like best. I like the simplicity and flexibility of the 'Poly system, but then I am a bit biased ;)

It could actually be interesting to run both systems and see how much of a difference in the rankings it would give, but I for one am not volunteering to set that up -- running one game across 3 sites is more than enough work for one World Cup ;)
 
World Champions: Spain
Top Scorer: David Villa

Group A:
France, Mexico

Group B:
Argentina, Nigeria

Group C:
England, USA

Group D:
Germany, Ghana

Group E:
Netherlands, Denmark

Group F:
Italy, Paraguay

Group G:
Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire

Group H:
Spain, Chile

11 June
South Africa 2-2 Mexico
Uruguay 0-1 France

12 June
Korea Republic 2-1 Greece
Argentina 1-0 Nigeria
England 2-0 USA

13 June
Algeria 0-3 Slovenia
Serbia 1-1 Ghana
Germany 2-0 Australia

14 June
Netherlands 3-1 Denmark
Japan 0-1 Cameroon
Italy 1-0 Paraguay

15 June
New Zealand 0-1 Slovakia
Côte d'Ivoire 3-2 Portugal
Brazil 4-1 Korea DPR

16 June
Honduras 0-2 Chile
Spain 2-0 Switzerland
South Africa vs Uruguay

17 June
Argentina vs Korea Republic
Greece vs Nigeria
France vs Mexico

18 June
Germany vs Serbia
Slovenia vs USA
England vs Algeria

19 June
Netherlands vs Japan
Ghana vs Australia
Cameroon vs Denmark

20 June
Slovakia vs Paraguay
Italy vs New Zealand
Brazil vs Côte d'Ivoire

21 June
Portugal vs Korea DPR
Chile vs Switzerland
Spain vs Honduras

22 June
France vs South Africa
Mexico vs Uruguay
Greece vs Argentina
Nigeria vs Korea Republic

23 June
Slovenia vs England
USA vs Algeria
Australia vs Serbia
Ghana vs Germany

24 June
Paraguay vs New Zealand
Slovakia vs Italy
Cameroon vs Netherlands
Denmark vs Japan

25 June
Korea DPR vs Côte d'Ivoire
Portugal vs Brazil
Chile vs Spain
Switzerland vs Honduras


At the very least, I predict it'll be an entertaining cup. :)
 
World Champions: Argentina
Top Scorer: Fernando Torres (El Niño).

Group A:
France, Mexico

Group B:
Argentina, Nigeria

Group C:
England, USA

Group D:
Germany, Serbia

Group E:
Netherlands, Cameroon

Group F:
Italy, Paraguay

Group G:
Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire

Group H:
Spain, Chile

11 June
South Africa 1-2 Mexico
Uruguay 1-0 France

12 June
Korea Republic 2-0 Greece
Argentina 2-0 Nigeria
England 2-1 USA

13 June
Algeria 0-3 Slovenia
Serbia 2-1 Ghana
Germany 2-0 Australia

14 June
Netherlands 3-1 Denmark
Japan 0-1 Cameroon
Italy 1-1 Paraguay

15 June
New Zealand 0-3 Slovakia
Côte d'Ivoire 1-2 Portugal
Brazil 4-0 Korea DPR

16 June
Honduras 0-4 Chile
Spain 2-0 Switzerland
 
World Champions: England
Top Scorer: Rooney

Group A
France
Uruguay

Group B:
Argentina
Greece

Group C:
England
USA

Group D:
Germany
Australia

Group E:
Netherlands
Cameroon

Group F:
Italy
Paraguay

Group G:
Brazil
Côte d'Ivoire

Group H:
Spain
Chile


Matches (Group Stage)

11 June
South Africa vs Mexico 0-2
Uruguay vs France 1-1

12 June
Korea Republic vs Greece 0-1
Argentina vs Nigeria 3-0
England vs USA 2-1

13 June
Algeria vs Slovenia 1-1
Serbia vs Ghana 2-2
Germany vs Australia 1-1

14 June
Netherlands vs Denmark 4-0
Japan vs Cameroon 1-2
Italy vs Paraguay 1-0

15 June
New Zealand vs Slovakia 1-2
Côte d'Ivoire vs Portugal 2-1
Brazil vs Korea DPR 7-0

16 June
Honduras vs Chile 0-2
Spain vs Switzerland 3-1
 
In!

Champions - Brazil
Top scorer - Luis Fabiano

Group A - Mexico, Uraguay
Group B - Argentina, Nigeria
Group C - England, USA
Group D - Germany, Serbia
Group E - Netherlands, Denmark
Group F - Italy, Slovakia
Group G - Brazil, Ivory Coast
Group H - Spain, Chile

South Africa 1-3 Mexico
Uruguay 1-1 France

Korea 0-0 Greece
Argentina 2-1 Nigeria
England 2-0 USA
 
World Champions: Spain
Top Scorer: Villa

Group A:
1. Uruguay
2. Mexico

Group B:
1. South Korea
2. Argentina

Group C:
1. England
2. USA

Group D:
1. Germany
2. Australia

Group E:
1. Netherlands
2. Cameroon

Group F:
1. Italy
2. Paraguay

Group G:
1. Brazil
2. Côte d'Ivoire

Group H:
1. Spain
2. Chile

South Africa vs Mexico 1-1
Uruguay vs France 2-1

Korea Republic vs Greece 1-0
Argentina vs Nigeria 1-3

England vs USA 2-2
Algeria vs Slovenia 0-1

Serbia vs Ghana 0-2
Germany vs Australia 1-1

Netherlands vs Denmark 3-0
Japan vs Cameroon 0-1

Italy vs Paraguay 1-0
New Zealand vs Slovakia 0-3

Côte d'Ivoire vs Portugal 2-2
Brazil vs Korea DPR 1-0

Honduras vs Chile 1-3
Spain vs Switzerland 2-0
 
Netherlands 1-0 Denmark
Japan 2-3 Cameroon
Italy 1-0 Paraguay

New Zealand 0-2 Slovakia
Côte d'Ivoire 1-3 Portugal
Brazil 1-0 Korea DPR

Honduras 1-3 Chile
Spain 3-0 Switzerland
 
World Champions: England
Top Scorer: Wayne Rooney

Group A:
France, Mexico

Group B:
Argentina, Greece

Group C:
England, USA

Group D:
Serbia, Germany

Group E:
Netherlands, Cameroon

Group F:
Italy, Paraguay

Group G:
Brazil, Portugal

Group H:
Spain, Chile

11 June
South Africa 0-2 Mexico
Uruguay 0-0 France

12 June
Korea Republic 1-1 Greece
Argentina 2-1 Nigeria
England 2-1 USA

13 June
Algeria 0-1 Slovenia
Serbia 3-1 Ghana
Germany 2-0 Australia

14 June
Netherlands 3-0 Denmark
Japan 0-1 Cameroon
Italy 1-1 Paraguay

15 June
New Zealand 0-2 Slovakia
Côte d'Ivoire 0-1 Portugal
Brazil 4-0 Korea DPR

16 June
Honduras 1-3 Chile
Spain 3-2 Switzerland
 
Alright, last warning folks: 16 hours until kick-off, if you still want to join and not miss any points, now is the time to do so. Of course, you can always join later but you'll miss out on some points that can be earned from the opening matches/groups.

We got a nice field of competitors, for a while there I was afraid we weren't going to break 20 but we're at 22 players now, with 5 from WPC, 8 from Poly and 9 from CFC -- not too shabby considering how last-minute this all was. I'm kinda hoping we can at least approach 30 before this thing is over though, so sign up if you still haven't! ;)

attachment.php
 
World Champions: Brazil
Top Scorer: Luis Fabiano

Group A:
1. France
2. Mexico

Group B:
1. Argentina
2. Nigeria

Group C:
1. England
2. USA

Group D:
1. Germany
2. Ghana

Group E:
1. Netherlands
2. Denmark

Group F:
1. Italy
2. Paraguay

Group G:
1. Brazil
2. Portugal

Group H:
1. Spain
2. Chile

South Africa vs Mexico 1-3
Uruguay vs France 1-1
 
Back
Top Bottom