A war with Iran

[otago]

Hmm, reading this through and if 80% of it is accurate those who beat the drums for an attack on Iran might well wish they had not done so.
Besides in the end the Iranians will still have the uranium which means the only answer is Iraq mk2, ie an invasion
So how accurate could this be ? nukes used on Iran ? ,would Israel killing Russians lead to payback from Russia ?

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2012/01/11/what-war-with-iran-might-look-like/

 

[NiRv4n4]

Reading this and all the news recently, I have a feeling that Iran's government is incredibly incompetent, and highly volatile. A conflict in the near future is almost certain, mostly due to the stupidity of Iran's political and military leadership.

 

[Tahuti]

First of all, Russia and China would balk at the prospect of facing America. The fact that Israel - like Iran - is quite close to China doesn't help at all for the Iranians. Furthermore, neither China and Russia are legally obligated to Iran anyway, so there is nothing lost by not helping either. So Iran will have to face Israel and America (and perhaps Saudi Arabia as well) alone, period.

Because Iran is probably smart enough to realize this, they may try to go as far as possible but will eventually back down once things get to hard. Should war break out, I don't think it'll lead to WWIII.

 

[Dirk_Diggler]

I just don't get why we even have to mess with Iran. They're not hurting anyone. Israel is the biggest threat to Middle Eastern stability.

Ron Paul supporter btw.

 

[Joecoolyo]

First of all, Russia and China would balk at the prospect of facing America. The fact that Israel - like Iran - is quite close to China doesn't help at all for the Iranians. Furthermore, neither China and Russia are legally obligated to Iran anyway, so there is nothing lost by not helping either. So Iran will have to face Israel and America (and perhaps Saudi Arabia as well) alone, period.

Because Iran is probably smart enough to realize this, they may try to go as far as possible but will eventually back down once things get to hard. Should war break out, I don't think it'll lead to WWIII.

This, basically.

Iranian leadership may be incompetent, but they're not stupid enough to get themselves into a conflict that would be on par with national suicide.

 

[warpus]

What's annoying about this whole thing is that the west continues to beat the drums of war. If I was Iranian I'd be preparing for war too

 

[otago]

First of all, Russia and China would balk at the prospect of facing America. The fact that Israel - like Iran - is quite close to China doesn't help at all for the Iranians. Furthermore, neither China and Russia are legally obligated to Iran anyway, so there is nothing lost by not helping either. So Iran will have to face Israel and America (and perhaps Saudi Arabia as well) alone, period.

Because Iran is probably smart enough to realize this, they may try to go as far as possible but will eventually back down once things get to hard. Should war break out, I don't think it'll lead to WWIII.

Hmm, Russia and China together would be afraid of facing the USA, they are both nuclear powers which means the US will not attack them.
Oh WW3 could happen by accident or by paranoia, if the USA nuked Iran the chances of Russia saying we better get in first would be high.

 

[bombshoo]

Even if there were war, why assume the United States resort to using nuclear weapons? I don't think using nuclear weapons would be any more effective than a conventional bombing campaign in terms of accomplishing goals. Even if it's just a conventional war, what makes you think China and Russia would have enough stake in Iran to even care beyond protesting? Their moderately friendly relations with Iran seem to be more as a way to have some leverage over the U.S.A. than any real love for the Iranian regime. The Russians actually have some conflicting interests with Iran over the post-soviet states, while Israel and China actually have a very good working relationship that is probably as valuable if not more valuable than the Chinese-Iranian relationship.

In short, I think war is unlikely, especially nuclear war, and even if it did happen, I don't see it expanding outside of the Middle East. The Iranians would certainly get support from Shia militias all over (and possibly even some of the other Muslim groups who hate the United States and Israel) but I severely doubt it would turn into a global war.

 

[Ajidica]

If Iran were to invade anybody, and were even moderately sucessful, we would get a very strange situation with the Saudis and the Israelis fighting with each other against Iran. A dislike of Iran is one of the few things that they share (and a rather powerful group of religious nutjobs).

 

[Camikaze]

Moderator Action: Can't tell what the OP is on about without clicking a link. Closed.