Round 12: to 1600 AD, Part 2
The State of the World
To start off with, just before ending the round, since I was all flush with cash, I made a quick, informative trade with Churchill:
I'm starting to treat Economics like my world map--a handy bargaining chip rather than something to hoard. I
want other civs to adopt Free Market! Not that any of them have yet; but Winnie just switched to Mercantilism a couple of turns back (which is partly what motivated this trade), so there's hope he'll switch before long.
At any rate, as a result of this, I have a complete and up-to-date map of the other continent for us:
I have not sent any missionaries over there yet. I only just built my first Galleon, and I was too busy with infrastructure to bother with missionaries. I wasn't exactly hurting for cash either, but I'll have to get around to it. I'm starting to lean towards a diplomatic victory, in which case spreading the good news of Buddhism might help.
Now here's a look at my continent:
It's a good thing Ragnar is friendly, because I'm still relying on him for passage to my possessions in former Japanese territory. When hostilities with Japan renew (after the Golden Age), I think I should focus on fighting south from Edrine towards Kyoto, opening up passage through the eastern portion of the continent.
Here are the civics I'm currently running:
I'm torn between Bureaucracy and Free Speech. FS would help a lot with the border battles I've got going on (Ragnar keeps farming over mature cottages next to my Japanese cities!

) But Delhi is going to be building Oxford and Wall Street soon. On the other hand, there are several forests around Delhi that I could chop, including one extra one in the fat cross (there are two others). Whaddya think?
Here's the tech situation, vis-a-vis my nearest competitor, Ragnar:
Now, I checked with him, and here's a tech trade that he will agree to:
I haven't taken it. Should I? I'm obviously hoping to be able to get Rifling from Churchill at some point. One really great thing about getting Military Tradition would not just be the ability to build Cavalry, but the ability to build Level 3 Cavalry in any city with barracks and stables. That, I must say, is a change that has made Horseback Riding and mounted units more attractive in Warlords. I also have a couple of veteran War Elephants I could upgrade.
Here are the trade agreements I currently have:
I seem to be avoiding any demerits thus far for trading with all 3 civs on the other continent, but I'll have to see if that remains the case.
Relations:
Hmmm, Alexander has dropped to cautious. Maybe it's time to sell him another old tech for peanuts again. At least Churchill has risen to Pleased. How do you think things bode for a Diplomatic victory? Churchill, at this point, would be my rival. I think I could count on Ragnar's votes, but I'm not sure about anybody else.
The military situation, including how many XPs before the next Great General:
So I'm about halfway to the next one. If I finish off Japan, I'll probably earn him. Especially since Tokugawa has Rifles and will now put up a much tougher fight. Which is why I'm researching Steel for Cannon. I'm glad I waited--if I'd researched Steel at the beginning of this round, it would have taken 12 turns, not the 5 currently required.
Oh, I should mention that I
did earn my next Great General early in this round. I teamed him with a Level 3 Horse Archer (I didn't have any Chariots with at least 6 XPs) to get a Med III unit. He's now in Satsuma.
Related to this, the power graph:
Ragnar is out in front, but considering he gained 2 military techs on me this round, that's not too surprising. I've leveled off a little due to losing units and my focus on infrastructure. As I mentioned above, if I get MT from Ragnar I can start pumping out lots of Level 3 Cavalry to get this graph moving in the right direction.
Demographics:
Of course, since I've just started a Golden Age, this graph is even less informative than it usually is. Ragnar is the GNP leader, and well ahead of me in that regard, even though I'm #2 now. Still, for 8 turns at least, I'm #1 in GNP at last!
Top 5 cities and wonders:
If I do go to war with Ragnar, Nidaros would be a definite objective. However, if we decide to pursue a diplomatic victory, I think war with my best friend is a non-starter. I'm coping with the cultural pressure from his borders, and I think I'm starting to catch up and/or overtake him in terms of technology and economy.
Now for some decision-making. First off, I won the race to Physics, so I have a free Great Scientist waiting in Delhi:
As you can see, I could use him to help with Biology--another handy bargaining chip. He'd shave about 1.5 turns off of it if I research it during the Golden Age. Or I could settle him in Delhi; that's 9 research points plus a hammer to help build Oxford and Wall Street. I have another Great Person due in Delhi in two turns, but that could be a Great Scientist, a Great Prophet (Taoist shrine, methinks), or even a Great Engineer. I don't really have a 2nd science city worth an Academy, and I'm reluctant to use him for one just to get additional culture in a border city--seems like a bit of a waste to me.
Other things we should discuss:
Military:
As many of you predicted and recommended, I'm taking a pause in my war with Japan. I very much believe it will have to resume, at least to establish a path to my newly-acquired cities in the south. With Versailles in Kagashima, I think that city is ripe for the plucking as well. Nara has crabs, so it's worth capturing and keeping. Frankly, I could see myself doing one of two things: either reducing Tokugawa to 3 cities in the southern tundra (Yokohama, Izuma, and Matoyama) and accepting him as a vassal, or taking him out completely. Whaddya think?
Beyond that, I'm very reluctant to fight with Ragnar unless he suddenly becomes belligerent. He's been very good for tech trading, and he's the #1 military power. A war with him would be ugly--he'd have units racing all over my many border cities with him.
Research:
Does Steel seem like the best choice at this point? I really think it is. Cannons will give me the edge I need to take down Tokugawa efficiently. I can also build drydocks for more experienced Frigates. The Ironworks will have to wait until Kyoto is in my possession, however, as I think it's the best city for it. I don't see a big need for Rifles--Grenadiers are just fine; I find Rifles to be more of a defensive unit. As I mentioned, I'm hoping Churchill will research that tech and eventually trade it. So after Steel, I think Steam Power and Railroads make sense, to make my units more mobile in the vast empire that spans much of my continent. Or maybe Biology before them, especially if I use the free GS to help with it. Maybe I should even get Biology before Steel? Especially if I'm thinking of a diplomatic victory.
Civics:
As I said, I'm in a conundrum over Bureaucracy versus Free Speech. I'm leaning towards running the former until both Oxford and Wall Street are finished. I'm also hesitant about Free Religion. It would certainly improve relations with Alexander and Isabella for a diplomatic victory, but if Ragnar drops to "Pleased"--yikes. And does anyone think it's too late for the Caste System/Pacifism tactic? Lahore would be quite a good GP farm with that combination, and GPs are still cheap for me--this next one in Delhi will only be my 3rd in the game.
Victory:
Let's start talking about it since the next few rounds will definitely lay the groundwork for it. Domination strikes me as very difficult since my next target after Tokyo is also the most powerful nation around. War with Ragnar would be very ugly. He's been friendly for most of the game and I'm inclined to do whatever I have to to keep him that way. I'd better get a couple of Buddhist missionaries down to his two southern Muslim cities pronto.
Besides, if Churchill can stay ahead of Rangar in population--which, if I trade Biology to him and
not to Ragnar, could happen--then Ragnar will vote for me, and he's got to be #3 in population.
The other possibility is Space Race. I think I'd have the territory, research level, and economy for it once Japan is toast. However, it would take longer, giving Ragnar more time to get antsy, especially since I'd have to run Free Religion and lose the religious bonus with him. That's worth +6, and it's what's keeping him friendly.
The other option for Space Race is to finish Toku, then gear up for a conflict with Ragnar. I'd need railroads connecting my border cities by then; I'd want to hit him fast, with at least 2 stacks, taking a couple of cities, absorb his counter-attack, and then take a couple more cities until he's too weak to be a problem anymore. That's much more risky than just running religious civics all game.
But I think, even if I go after diplomatic, that once Toku is done, I should prepare for Ragnar to turn on me. All it would take is for him to convert to Islam.
The saved game file is below.