ALC Game 11: Carthage/Hannibal

[RobertTheBruce]

Anyway, from my experience, Shaka is much better at keeping dup than Kublai Khan and, often, Tokugawa. But I agree he is less dangerous in mid-game compared to Tokugawa, who is in fact the one who tends to reach a zenith and then fae away. If you wait till he reaches the high point, you'd have a problem. If you wait till he fades away, it might be too late.

I should have said Shaka is going to fade away because he is boxed into a corner. I agree that he can be a very dangerous leader if he had decent land. He researches reasonably well and will build some nasty stacks. Normally, he's a "kill him before he gets established" type. Without room to expand, I would just let him stew. If he had Toku's location, he would need to be attacked soon.

You are right about allying, he's easy to bribe and he's going to build units whether or not he's at war. I'd bet that Shaka will declare war on either Sisiutil or Toku during the next turn set anyway. If he declares on Sisiutil, it will be hard to keep him as a useful ally. Without the iron city, he is useless; unless a city is taken or razed, he won't sue for peace. The iron is his Achilles heel for any eventual war.

 

[aelf]

I should have said Shaka is going to fade away because he is boxed into a corner. I agree that he can be a very dangerous leader if he had decent land. He researches reasonably well and will build some nasty stacks. Normally, he's a "kill him before he gets established" type. Without room to expand, I would just let him stew. If he had Toku's location, he would need to be attacked soon.

You are right about allying, he's easy to bribe and he's going to build units whether or not he's at war. I'd bet that Shaka will declare war on either Sisiutil or Toku during the next turn set anyway. If he declares on Sisiutil, it will be hard to keep him as a useful ally. Without the iron city, he is useless; unless a city is taken or razed, he won't sue for peace. The iron is his Achilles heel for any eventual war.

Maybe we are actually agreeing with each other. A weak Shaka is just as well. Why do you want to have a strong, aggressive neighbour? He won't be too useless if you give him cities on the western coast to give him a corridor to Mongolia, though.

Even if he declares war on Sisiutil, he can still be made an ally later on. A decalaration of war by the other party does not give you any diplomatic penalty. This situation happened in EMC1 (although we eventually backstabbed our ally Kublai Khan). But, anyway, if Sisiutil keeps Shaka happy and maintains his power ratings reasonably close, I don't think the AI would declare war so early. It seems to happen mostly with Monty only.

 

[Sisiutil]

Round 4: 775 BC to 620 AD - Part 1

A longer round this time--I wanted to get some things done.

Now, I sincerely hope this round doesn't result in another bout of wailing, hair-pulling, "The game is lost!" posts like last time. I'm behind. Deal. From what I can tell in my off-line games, that's normal on Monarch (and, from what I hear, above it) at this point.

With that declaration out of the way, let's see what happened.

First off, based on some advice received here, I made a couple of changes. For starters, I changed research, leaving Horseback Riding behind (again):

I also kept adjusting tiles worked in my cities, trying to emphasize growth. The Scout popped that last remaining goody hut up north, for...

Huh. A Warrior. Well, I guess that doesn't totally suck. Oh, no, wait, yes it does! Sheesh.

Speaking of cities, I expanded and founded three new ones. To ensure I could do this, I temporarily suspended my open borders agreements with Shaka and Tokugawa.

I was worried about Shaka in particular, since he had few choices for expansion. I didn't want to see a Zulu galley sneaking up my coastline, or an Archer/Settler combo shuffling up to claim MY gold, marble, and iron. The OB cancellation made it harder for them to get to those sites--and, indeed, they did not.

So I founded Marble Arch first, henceforth known as "Hippo", the city that will forever seek the answer to the eternal question, "Does this name make me look fat?"

Next came Iron hoof, or Kerkouane, which I decided to place inland in the absence of any seafood.

Yes, yes, I realized sometime afterwards that maybe it should have gone 1 tile south. Well, none of you gave me many ideas for where to put the damn thing, so it's your fault. Nyah.

The third city was Golden Clam, henceforth known as Leptis.

Surprisingly, this did not crash my economy as I feared. Though I was researching at a fairly low rate all round--40 to 50%, generally.

Fortuately, a couple of turns later, I had a crucial tech in my hands:

So I immediately checked the tech trading board, and surprise, surprise, everyone was ahead of me. Curse the AI and its Monarch level research bonus! Curse it, I say!

Well, I decided to take advantage of the shared religion bonus. I went begging to my Buddhist buddies Shaka and Toku:

That was helpful--thanks, guys! (Maybe I should be more worried than grateful--you think they're feeling sorry for me?) Too bad Buddhism failed to spread to Kublai; he never really warmed up to me. And oh yes, those gifts from the glimmer twins allowed me to shift priorities to getting Literature and the Great Library built, especially thanks to the marble I now had.

At any rate, these gifts allowed me to save Alphabet--practically the only tech I had on these two (Kublai already had it!)--for better trades.

One of those came along a few turns later:

Too bad he wouldn't trade Horseback Riding. I had to research that on my own.

This allowed me to switch civics:

That also helped with building the Great Library, along with some chopping.

While I chased the big scroll repository, my neighbours were no slouches in the wonder department:

So, wonders popping up all around me, my Aggressive neighbours teching ahead of me--would I even get the GL built? Stay tuned...

 

[Sisiutil]

Round 4: 775 BC to 620 AD - Part 2

So there I was, falling behind in techs. Time to make some trades:

That last one was pretty important. It opened the way for me to pursue Construction for Catapults, and also game me a pile of gold so I could research at a deficit for several turns.

To complicate things further, Kublai founded a religion!

Hmmm... interesting. I left Hippo without a faith for now, just to see if Christianity would spread to it. It didn't, and Hippo may have a very different religious fate, as we'll soon see.

Some good news arrived in 500 AD, thanks to Organized Religion, marble, some chops, and some scientists I put to work in the mines. Hey, at least I didn't whip them!

A few turns later, that and the previously built-up Great Person Points in Carthage gave me my first Great Person, a Great Scientist. I didn't use him right away, though, because I had finished researching Construction and was part way through researching Code of Laws. Once CoL was completed, you see, the GS can pop for...

And no, Taoism has not been founded yet:

Yes, Philosophy, to found Taoism! So... should I? Hippo is my only city without religion, and so it is guaranteed to become the holy city. Since it's surrounded by grassland (under all that jungle), I was going to cottage it like crazy anyway, and it would make a darn good holy city. It just might take awhile to get a Great Prophet somewhere. Another religion could be useful for diplomatic purposes. I also think that Shaka somehow founded Confucianism, but I'm not 100% sure. I'll have to get a unit down to his territory to see if one of them is the Confucian holy city.

I like the idea of snagging Philosophy for help with Liberalism later on. My next Great Person will also come out of Carthage, and relatively quickly thanks to the 4 scientists and the GL--less than 20 turns, IIRC, so I can get an Academy there before too long. Philosophy would also be handy for trading and help me catch up some more:

Toku, in fact, is primed and ready for this trade:

So I could probably get Currency and Calendar from Shaka for Philosophy. As Borat would say, n-i-i-i-ce.

Now for some bad news...the power grid:

Ewwww. And guess what I've seen in some of my rivals' cities? Longbowmen. Ugh.

And the demographics are ugly too:

Dead last in almost everything! But I do have a good base to build on--I'm 3rd in land, after all.

Now here's a look at the map:

Another thought: I should send some units up and take that barb city, Thracian. I have my first few Numidian Cavalry, it would be good experience for them, and a catapult or two would ensure that they're successful. It's a well-placed city--one I would have founded myself eventually, so I think that's my next goal. I could leave it sans religion in the hope Christianity spreads there--just in case I need to court Kublai. I should also take out the other barb city on the west coast, though I think it should be razed since it's 1 TILE FROM THE COAST!! ARRGH!! Stoopid AI...

As for everything else--well, what to do, what to do? Obviously I need to stop with the civilian builds and focus on military for a few turns (I already have some NCs and Cats on the way). Then what? If I can make those trades, I was thinking of going after Engineering very soon for Trebuchets, though maybe Civil Service should come first. Yes, I'm thinking of fighting my way out of this hole. Screw peace! I'm gettin' bored anyway, and I want to see the Numidian Cavalry in action before they're obsolete. (I'm really beginning to think I should switch the speed of the ALCs to Epic.)

If I go that route, Christian heretic Kublai seems like an obvious target. He's also the current leader, and that barb city is on the way to his territory...convenient, no? There are a lot of desireable resources to be gained in the north: furs, deer, silk, whales, sheep, stone, fish, crabs, not to mention extra marble, wheat, iron, horses, and copper. And Turfan, IIRC, already has the Christian shrine!

My buddies Toku and Shaka would probably leave me well alone if I went after him. I would anticipate gaining a large, substantial northern empire. I would probably shoot ahead of Toku and Shaka at that point--I could either coexist with them in Buddhist bliss, or take one or both down once I gain sufficient advantage (tech, units, or both) to do so. I could even try to convert one to Taoism and set them upon each other.

Or are the peaceniks among you gonna convince me to stand down completely?

The saved game is below...

 

[aelf]

I think you're doing fine at this point. Use that GS to grab Philosophy. If there's a valuable trade that can be made with it, do so. Otherwise, sit on it and try to be the first to grab Liberalism.

Now I'm of the opinion that you should let the game decide whether it's mainly peace or war you're going to pursue. It's no longer a tabula rasa on which you can mould a destiny, thanks to its lateness and Kublai's founding and adoption of Christianity. In fact, you should be moulding yourself to fit the situation. Otherwise, things may go awry. I don't think you would be on a fast track towards continental domination, though. Go for Kublai first and then prepare to face Toku and/or Shaka as Free Religion draws near. You may end up owning your whole continent as a result, but I think it would be late in the game by the time you do. After that, go for a space victory or something.

 

[cabert]

where are those peaceniks?

Good round!
Go for Philo and go for trades.
Go for NC on those barb cities, but remember barbs don't give GG points.
If you don't want any diplomatic demerit, just wait until shaka switches to confucianism (something to check).
I didn't say you want to conquer the pyramids...
No I didn't say it .
But arranging religions to make shaka a heathen would make a war painless in the diplomatic section...


And if you want a prophet in the game without being in a hurry, you can build a temple in your Glibrary city and hire a priest instead of a scientist for a while. You'll have low odds towards a priest, but after a while you'll get him. And if you switch to pacifism (which I think you should), the "while" maybe really short.

 

[VoiceOfUnreason]

Initial comments....

1) The position looks fine to me. The power graph is disturbing, but so it goes.

2) Did you recognize in that wonder cascade that Toku would have put Mathematics on the available list? No matter now, just a hint that it might have been available a couple of turns before you got it.

3) Wow, Pyramids in Ulandi. I never see targets so brightly painted unless I go up into the strategy layer. Did he invest the scientist in an Academy as well? Hard to tell from the screen shot. Without more territory, I don't think Shakinthebox is going to be much of a threat, though he does have the option of runnning an entire fishmarket of specialists with good Reps.

4) Two words: Domestic Advisor Screen Shot.

5) Why is Hippo building a library? -- Possible answer: you are worried about the culture battle. Taking the city on it's own, I suspect that a courthouse would be more valuble at this point. (You've got the GL, so the Marble isn't so critical right now). Taoism founded there might be a good piece to have for the culture battle down the road. Presumably the missionary goes to Carthage to open up another monastery.

6) Have you figured out when you want to build the National Epic? (see above).

7) If you are going to be going into Unit mode, you'll likely want to swap out of OrgRel. Will the Khan put Christianity on the table in a Philo swap, opening up Theology for the extra experience out of the gate?

 

[cabert]

Initial comments....

1) The position looks fine to me. The power graph is disturbing, but so it goes.

2) Did you recognize in that wonder cascade that Toku would have put Mathematics on the available list? No matter now, just a hint that it might have been available a couple of turns before you got it.

3) Wow, Pyramids in Ulandi. I never see targets so brightly painted unless I go up into the strategy layer. Did he invest the scientist in an Academy as well? Hard to tell from the screen shot. Without more territory, I don't think Shakinthebox is going to be much of a threat, though he does have the option of runnning an entire fishmarket of specialists with good Reps.

4) Two words: Domestic Advisor Screen Shot.

5) Why is Hippo building a library? -- Possible answer: you are worried about the culture battle. Taking the city on it's own, I suspect that a courthouse would be more valuble at this point. (You've got the GL, so the Marble isn't so critical right now). Taoism founded there might be a good piece to have for the culture battle down the road. Presumably the missionary goes to Carthage to open up another monastery.

6) Have you figured out when you want to build the National Epic? (see above).

7) If you are going to be going into Unit mode, you'll likely want to swap out of OrgRel. Will the Khan put Christianity on the table in a Philo swap, opening up Theology for the extra experience out of the gate?

I see we think in very similar patterns.
One exception : religious civic.
I think abusing the early Great person rush with pacifism is much more valuable than 2XP (giving numidian cavalries nothing! 5 xp = level 3, 7 xp = level 3 too. To achieve level 4, you'd need vassalage too, which isn't possible right now)

 

[Elandal]

Love, peace and happiness - except for the Khan of the North?
As religions have now been founded, the shifts in alliances should slow down and blocks should stabilize a bit. If Kublai was left without a chair when the music stopped, then he does in a way make an obvious target. But are Toku and Shaka going to live in peaceful coexistence with the Carthagian Empire even with the shared religion?

I'm not trying to convince you to try to live peacefully with the neighbours you have. That sounds a bit hard, given the situation.. So I guess it's time to yet again evaluate the opponents to pick the target and reasons for the war, and to have a plan for post-war development.

With some religious issues in the way, Kublai might not make for a good trading buddy. Sad, as out of the three he's the best choice for that. Toku is what he is, only trading techs everyone but you already knows. Shaka is better but only for as long as you are four on the continent. Same holds for Kublai, though.. If you're three, and your trading buddy will trade tech only if at least one other civ knows it, then it's the same as trading only what everyone except you knows. A problem with small number of civs, but eventually contact with the other continent will solve the tech trading problems. Of course unless they're all religiously fervent hindus, but that's still to be found out.

So, if you want to continue trading techs pre-optics, you can't wipe out any single civ off the map. I have no idea how vassals count when it comes to tech trading / civs that know a tech counting.

With that considered (remove one civ and tech trading will have to wait for optics, or just reduce one civ to keep some trading potential up), we might want to think about post-war situations depending on your choice of target, the choice of going for cap'ing or not (if they have longbows, vassallage is out there), and the choice of going for genocide or reduction.

I have not loaded the save, so I'm just going by your report: Khan is strongest, Toku next, Shaka weakest. And Khan has a shrine, while Toku doesn't? Stupid AI - well spread religion and no shrine

If you decide to go against the Khan, you have to make sure that your southern border is safe. Essentially this means that Toku and Shaka must be fighting someone - preferably eachother. It's a bit dangerous, as Toku might overwhelm Shaka, in which case you might be left with weakened Khan (or removed Khan) and Zulus vassalled by Toku in the south (or at minimum stronger Toku and non-issue Shaka). However, if they aren't fighting anyone, then they're thinking about fighting someone and it's always better if you can point them towards some target than if they get to choose the target freely.

OTOH, if both Toku and Shaka are ready to dogpile on the poor Khan, you gain MMS diplo there, making future co-existence easier - maybe even possible

Assuming you want some techtrading to continue, dogpiling on Khan might be the way to go, reducing the Khan to small while taking the good parts of his territory, and then calling everyone off so that he's left somewhere in the cold north, just for the point of enabling tech trading with Shaka.

I don't think Shaka makes a good target in any case. If you take his cities, you're left with long borders with Toku (and also with Khan in the north), which is very inconvenient should Toku some day decide that he wants to expand to your land. Pyramids would of course be nice.

Toku I believe is still a potential target. The hard part is figuring out how to keep Khan in check while you work on Toku. Christianity sure would help in that. Although Christianity would make dealing with Shaka harder.. If Christianity does spread your way, it might not be impossible to first get Shaka into war against Toku, quickly switch to Christianity, and get Khan to dogpile.
However, a strong Khan is not fun either. You'd have to do something about that in one way or another in any case.


I can't find a good solution here. The situation is a mess and may well require multiple wars - against both Khan and Toku. Just make sure that there won't be any buddies left, and whoever are on your continent hate eachother more than they hate you. I hope the experienced diplomats here find an elegant solution that allows you to go for one war only, followed by consolidation of large territory that will get you to lead and keep you there.

 

[LostCrumb]

Since this is my first post in this forum, I would like to say hello to everyone first. Without this forum, I would never have got such a deep understanding of the game as I have right now. Thanks to everyone, who contributes to this forum.

From my point of view, Sisiutil, your empire is in a very good shape. You claimed many valuable strategic ressources and a decent territory. Here are my two thoughts about it:

First, I think the northern three cities could have more tile improvements. If they grow to fast, they will have to work unimproved tiles. Some additional cottages could help to speed up your research.

My second thought is about your cities' specialization. What do you think about tagging your cities? In my games for example, I add signs from the strategy layer to the city tiles, where I describe its role (like "science city" or "military production"). This makes it possible to identify each cities specialization at a glance.

Lost Crumb

 

[a0161613]

I add signs from the strategy layer to the city tiles, where I describe its role (like "science city" or "military production").

How'd you do that? Cos i like that idea and i normally just end up changing the city name!!!

 

[Elandal]

As I find pointing specific tiles hard on the strategy layer (available in the zoomed out mode only), I rather use <Alt-S> to set signs without going to strategy layer.

I use signs usually for dotmapping, but at times to eg. mark irrigation chains (adding "farm" sign on each tile needed for the irrigation chain) when they become a bit longer.

 

[JackRules]

Just to say thanks to Sisiutil and all of you for these ALC games. I've only read the last one (Aosaka) and enjoyed it immensly. I'm not much of a player (I hold my own on Warlord-barely), but I'm learning a great deal here. Thanks again.

 

[RobertTheBruce]

I think you need to ask what kind of victory are you headed toward. If you want domination, I don't think trading partners will be much of a concern soon. It may not matter since you will pull ahead of your neighbors as your cottages grow. I would use the scientist for Philosophy for Taoism and trade bait. Use the free missionary to access another temple in the city you plan to use for a future Great Prophet for the Buddhist shrine.

I would lean toward attacking Kublai first. It looks like he has a few more cities on the map from controlled resources so he probably has less units per city than Shaka or Toku. I assume Toku has longbows from the jump in power, does Kublai? It may be best to take Thracian and research Machinery before attacking.

Shaka may actually be a useful trading partner for a few more techs if he does switch to Representation. Police State is his favourite civic so I'm suspicious he will start building lots of units and falling behind in techs. If Shaka switches to Confucianism, you can use Philosophy as a bribe to get Toku to declare war while you concentrate on Kublai. If you attack Shaka and bribe Toku to attack Kublai, you risk Toku taking Kublai's best cities. I also think grabbing the Pyramids and running a lot of specialists will negate a lot of the advantages of a financial leader.

This proposal will significantly slow your progress to Optics but you can focus to the south once Kublai is neutralized. I assume you will eventually declare war on Toku for the holy city and Shaka if he switches religion. It will give control of the continent and get you close to domination or enough territory to quickly research for a space race.

Unfortunately, Numidian Cavalry aren't going to get much use this game. They are great against Samurai but their rush window is over. I played a few games as Hannibal and only got a lot of use from N.C. in a game where I popped HBR from a hut.

 

[dragomaster]

Thracian look kind of good in my eyes. you will get two food recourses plus seven grasland squares. it could be a good GP farm and your financ trait make those scares good for cottages.

 

[KMadCandy]

note to self: thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's capitol, even if it has 4 seafood and the pyramids, lest it lead you to the wrong war at the wrong time. /tsk kmad stop looking at it.

With some religious issues in the way, Kublai might not make for a good trading buddy. Sad, as out of the three he's the best choice for that. Toku is what he is, only trading techs everyone but you already knows. Shaka is better but only for as long as you are four on the continent. Same holds for Kublai, though.. If you're three, and your trading buddy will trade tech only if at least one other civ knows it, then it's the same as trading only what everyone except you knows. A problem with small number of civs, but eventually contact with the other continent will solve the tech trading problems. Of course unless they're all religiously fervent hindus, but that's still to be found out.

So, if you want to continue trading techs pre-optics, you can't wipe out any single civ off the map. I have no idea how vassals count when it comes to tech trading / civs that know a tech counting.

elandal, i understand the mechanics of what you're saying, in part due to your help earlier explaining the whole thing but i'm wondering about how much difference it makes, if we do the peacenik thing. if shaka stays boxed in his corner, how much teching will he be able to do, as far as keeping up in techs enough to hit the magical 'known to X civs' number for anyone to trade them to us? for toku it doesn't matter, for KK it technically does. but my thinking is that even re:trading with KK, shaka's existence only helps us if he manages to research techs KK does but toku doesn't. if he's so boxed in that he can't do that, KK will only trade what toku already knows regardless of whether shaka lives or dies, correct? (kmad, whose mother is a retired english teacher, pauses here to let the english teacher in S notice she didn't say "irregardless" and therefore deserves extra credit )

on second thought, after downloading the save (to try to go to globe view to compare KK's land area vs toku's + shaka's together via culture layer, i guess you can't do that until you center the globe oopsies!), i found out you do have a bit more map info than is shown in your last screenshot. this can't be a spoiler since it's directly from your save without any WBg or moving of units, so i'll go ahead and mention that i see shaka's culture borders south of barbarian Chehalis and west of Japanese "Cow with no name"...errr...dye/banana/cowville. so with that coastal city and ondini, he's not as boxed in as i'd first thought. then again, if circumstances were such that he lost OB with you and with toku, those 2 cities are completely cut off from his core, and he's kinda boxed in anyway.

kmad pauses here again to re-read the note to herself at the top 48 times. and to wonder whether she should edit her sig to add the always-applicable disclaimer "i'm not giving hardcore advice, i'm asking questions to educate myself, which sometimes has the bonus effect of clarifying your thinking so i doubt i'll stop doing it any time soon."

 

[uncarved block]

One nice thing about these ALCs, Sisiutil, is discovering my own manias. Information is high up on my priorities, and I would have replaced that Scout fogbusting to the north with a NC, or even a Warrior, and gone on a tour of the Khan's territory. Is production so tight on Monarch that you couldn't take 2-3 turns at Carthage and get a Scout to find out for certain what Shaka and Toku have up their sleeves? IME, after the patch the AI is woefully lacking in offensive units (typically a quarter or less of total units), which makes worrying about an extended border (per Elandel) less of a concern, at least for a while. I think I'll go through and play a couple turns after this post just to satisfy my curiosity, but as I said, the difference in playing style is interesting.

Looking pretty good. Early qualms about the other continent have subsided a bit-- apparently the human player is really the driving factor, even with the research bonus. None of the later culture wonders- Sistine, Hagia Sophia- have been built, not even the ToA, IIRC. If the HC gets built in the next ten turns, then it might be time to worry. I doubt it's going to happen, just an observation.

Doesn't look as if your UB is going to be much of a factor. It's a tough one to leverage, pretty much requiring a total change in strategy. With those neighbors, and the lack of sea resources, it was probably a sucker play anyway. It will make Thracian less of an economic burden in the long run, though, which is always nice.

 

[KMadCandy]

quoting S: "Screw peace! I'm gettin' bored anyway, and I want to see the Numidian Cavalry in action before they're obsolete. (I'm really beginning to think I should switch the speed of the ALCs to Epic.)"

definitely something to consider. the very last thing i want to see is you getting bored with the ALC series. i love following them (is it obvious?) but i want them to be fun for you, not a chore. and part of the goal is to see the UU in action, how else can you compare civs. have you played offline games on epic enough to know the feel of it, how you like it and such?

 

[Sisiutil]

I think Kublai built the Temple of Artemis a while back. Can't recall for sure.

The tough thing with Philosophy will be balancing the temptation to trade it around right away for techs, versus saving it for diplomatic bribes. I'm worried that if I go after Kublai, one or both of the others will take it as an opportunity to come after me. I might prefer to have them as allies in a mutual struggle rather than twiddling their thumbs and going, "Oh look! He moved all his best units north for the war. How interesting..."

The early part of the next round will definitely focus on military. I not only need to build a stack; I want to ensure my border cities (with all my neighbours) have sufficient units to fend off attacks. I also wouldn't mind placing a couple of defenders on key resources. Military techs will be a priority--Civil Service, Metal Casting, Machinery, Engineering. I may not be 1st to Liberalism--I think that will depend on the other continent.

I will build a few NC, if only so they can get that free Flanking I and later be upgraded to Knights and Cavalry with their promotions intact. But yeah, I'm definitely thinking Epic speed from now on. I play all my off-line games at that speed and I find I really prefer it. And I'm used to it--coming back to Normal speed for the ALCs is throwing me off a bit.

 

[Elandal]

@kmad
For as long as all three (Toku, Kublai, Shaka) are alive, if any two of them have a tech (which means either Kublai or Shaka has it), the one that is not Toku will be willing to trade.
If only two are alive, then both have to have the tech before either will trade (and at this point Toku is the same as either Kublai or Shaka).

Also, I think you're underestimating the AI research.. Even if Shaka is boxed in and won't expand from there, he's certainly capable of some research. Not the leading edge, but at least backfills. It's always nice to have some backwards civ around who you can trade obsolete techs for reasonable backfills