I'd love to see a clever gambit for Japan - something with more color than "do the standard agressive rush badly until Samurai are available", but I can't tease it out of the opening. Awful synergies in the ancient era: everything pulls in conflicting directions.
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Heres a rope-a-dope strategy that might make the most of your protective trait in a warmongering effort:
Step1a Build Solo City
Identify an aggressive opponent on a nearby island you want to expand to
Build one city (Solo City) on a mountain on this islands coast
Chop any adjacent forest/jungle
Throw in x amount of long-bowmen with city garrison promotions
Build walls and other building that provide city defence (i.e., chichen itza)
Step1b Prepare Naval Counterattack
While doing the above in this city, do the following on your mainland:
Build an army of Samurai and catapults and whatever else may be needed (dependent on other civs weaknesses and strengths)
Have a navy ready to transport them
Step2a Rope-in Opponent
Once steps 1a and 1b are complete:
Declare war on opponent
Wait for your opponent to dwindle his/her army by attacking Solo City
Once your opponent is weakened or before your city is captured, unload your samurai and catapults onto your opponents island. If it is the case that you opponent is weakened, it would be preferable to unload units next to a city that is more than two enemy-movement turns from Solo City
Step 2b Carry out Counterattack
With your opponents main army fighting an uphill battle (literally) you should be able to capture a few cities with minimal military losses, which will allow a swift attack due to minimal delay in waiting for health to recoup (preferably you have a medic three horse archer with your main stack)
Your opponent will likely pull back his main army and allow you to unload new units from your mainland into your initial city
Step 3
Post to this message board just how amazingly great this strategy was. Or, conversely, what an amazingly great waste of time it was.
Yeah, I know there are a lot of ifs that would need to happen (i.e., an aggressive opponent on a nearby island) or what ifs that could happen (i.e., opponent kicks your solo citys a$$, earns plenty of promotions and a GG, and comes to your mainland to kick more a$$), but, on the flipside, there are a lot of qualified people to figure out how to get around those ifs or come up with plan Bs. And if anyone could pull it off