Here's another part of my Hadj Pandemic scenario, this time dealing with the post-pandemic Middle East:
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Hadj Virus caused one of the worst cases of depopulation in human history in the Arabian peninsula, mainly because the whole area simply couldn't support those who recovered from the infection itself. Once the law and order had broken down, imports of food and fresh water (not to mention other supplies) ceased. The US had to evacuate its military bases which were flooded by thousands of desperate refugees. Once the Western forces left, the region was left to fend for itself. Soon, all communications with the affected countries ceased and it was not until few years later that the West learned what happened. Until then, only the satellite pictures of burning cities, oil wells and exquisite tourist resorts provided the rest of the world with hints of the fate of this formerly rich region.
Other parts of the Middle East suffered too. In Israel, the disease spread rapidly among the Palestinians in overpopulated Gaza and on the West Bank. Israeli authorities imposed total quarantine, but the disease couldn't be stopped and it soon began to spread in Israel proper. Only strict measures (such as airtight quarantines imposed on infected communities, curfews, bans on travel etc.) imposed by Israeli military prevented a total collapse of the State of Israel, but this came at the cost of Israeli democracy which gave way to a period of military rule. Palestinians were less fortunate - the collapse of the remnants of Palestinian Authority, termination of foreign aid programs and Israeli restrictions caused a massive loss of life: whereas in Israel proper the death rate reached about 30%, in Palestinian territories it was over 70% (in Gaza 99% of people died).
When the pandemic finally ended, all countries were massively damaged and only few could maintain some sort of control over their territory. In the end, only Israel, Turkey and Iran survived with their governments still functioning. When the immediate problems concerning food supplies, law enforcement and medical assistance were solves, these countries began to assert control outside their pre-pandemic borders.
Turkey: seized parts of Syria, but largely lost control over the Kurd areas in the south East. Surprisingly, the Kurds managed to weather the pandemic with lesser death rate than their neighbors, mainly due to possession of prime farmland. Once the epidemic abated, they realized they've been given a unique opportunity to throw off the shackles of foreign oppression and they took it. Currently, a loose confederation of Kurdish communities maintains control over large parts of Turkey, Iran and former Iraq. It is rumored that the Kurds are receiving military aid from Israel, which wants to use them as a "firewall" against Turkish and Iranian expansion.
Iran: although the country nearly collapse due to massive loss of life, the Islamist regime proved more resilient than expected. After it restored over in most of the country (except the Kurdish areas), Islamic Revolutionary Guards began entering Iraq and seizing its deserted territory. Iranian expansion was stopped in the south by arriving American forces.
Israel: The military government, once it took full control of the country, didn't waste time trying to seek legitimacy for its actions. In fundamentalist circles, the pandemic was seen as a God's gift to Israel, a purifying flame which enabled Israel to fulfill its destiny. Since there was no functioning government in Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, Israeli forces entered these countries and annexed them whole or in parts, including Sinai, Lebanon, parts of Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, relocation zones were set up and the surviving Arab population in what was now Greater Israel was transfered to these areas. Swathes of free land attracted many Jews from America and Europe to move to Israel and Jewish settlements soon began to pop up in ex-Arab areas. Despite these successes, there is a growing unrest among native Israeli who want to restore democratic civilian rule in the greatly enlarged country.
Armenia: Armenians took the opportunity and captured large parts of Azerbaijan, which was unable to properly defend itself during the pandemic. Turkey was unable to intervene either due to the pandemic chaos and war against Kurdish insurgents.
Besides them, three foreign powers entered the region:
USA: In order to secure oil supplies, American forces moved to occupy large portion of the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia (including the city of Mecca, which caused outrage in the remnants of the Muslim world).
China: Chinese arrival was a shock to the US because US secret services completely failed to spot the preparations and departure of the invasion fleet. Fortunately for Americans, most important parts of Arabia were already taken, so China had to settle for Oman and parts of Yemen. Still, some important oil fields are now controlled by China and the tensions between it and the US are growing.
EU: European presence in almost totally depopulated Egypt is limited to coastal cities and the Suez Canal, which was included to one of the EUSAF zones of control after a secret deal with the Israeli government. Number of illegal settlements in Nile Delta is growing, but not so fast as in other parts of North Africa, mainly due to unsanitary conditions and great damage to infrastructure caused by massive flooding which followed the collapse of the Aswan Dam.