Alternate History Thread III

[Symphony D.]

After doing some research, so it seems it may be the case. Well, in any event Stalin still wouldn't ever sign peace because he wanted to knock them out, and because they still betrayed him first. Lasting peace with a paranoid megalomaniac tends to basically be impossible. At most the USSR would maybe sign a temporary peace to regroup and then attack Germany while it was distracted elsewhere. Particularly if you buy Viktor Suvorov's theories.

 

[Stormbringer]

So Symphony, what would have to happen to produce a USSR/German peace treaty in 1942?

 

[Symphony D.]

One country or the other (or both) would have to spontaneously burst into flames. I don't see Hitler or Stalin backing down; Hitler out of his adamant delusions of grandeur and his messiah complex or Stalin out of his intense paranoia and megalomania.

Both of them would have to die and be replaced by rather sensible and pragmatic people, and neither of them had those sorts of people in positions for lines of succession (Hitler would've had, at this time, Goering or Himmler, Heydrich having just died; and Stalin had just purged off most of his commanders and had no clear line of successors yet).

I don't see the scenario as being feasible without a hefty suspension of disbelief, personally.

 

[Stormbringer]

1942

June
Reinhard Heydrich, a possible successor to Hitler, is assassinated on June 4th. He anchored the “military” flank within the German government, and with him gone Hans Lammers and Martin Bormann gain absolute influence over Hitler. By controlling access to Hitler and all the information that went to him they lock the other top members of the Nazi party out of power.
Hermann Goring, who is convinced that the war against the Soviet Union will lead to disaster, tries once again to talk Hitler out of further attacks, but Hitler does not even hear his point of view because his letters and memorandums never make it to the Fuhrer. On June 28th Hitler orders Army Group South to begin Operation Blue, and the German armies begin their final offensive against the Soviet Union.

July
Allied forces in North Africa retreat towards Alexandria and set up defensive positions, trying to hold the city. Rommel chooses to press on, even though the German forces are desperately short on supplies. As a result the defenders are able to hold the city and Rommel is forced to withdraw from his positions.
By the end of the month it is clear that for now Alexandria and the Suez Canal are safe from the Germans.

August-September
By late August the German forces have reach Stalingrad and bombardment of the city begins. German forces enter the city and street by street combat begins. While the Germans are able to push forward into the city they suffer severe casualties from the desperate Soviet troops and from the cold that is beginning to set in.
Desperately under supplied, the German commanders, Hermann Goring amongst them, request permission to withdraw. Lammers and Bormann stop Goring’s letter from reaching Hitler, and the request is denied.

October
General Montgomery takes over command of the Allied forces in North Africa. Rommel once again engages the Allied forces, and he is slowly but surely repelled. Over a month of fighting the Allied forces push Rommel and his troops out of Egypt completely. Rommel withdraws to Tunisia after he realizes that the campaign in Egypt has failed, ending the Axis threat to Egypt and the Suez Canal.

During the campaign Rommel has chosen to disregard an order from Hitler that states that all commandos that were captured in Europe and Africa were to be executed even if they attempted to surrender. In Berlin Bormann is furious at Rommel’s loss and disobedience of the order that Bormann had initially proposed, and suggests to Hitler that Rommel should be dismissed, but for now Rommel retains his command.

November
Allied forces launch an all-out assault of North Africa, and Rommel is forced to fight against overwhelming odds. He scores a number of victories, but Vichy France forces in other parts of North Africa are quickly overwhelmed by Allied assaults, leaving Rommel surrounded.

Following Hitler’s refusal to allow a retreat from Stalingrad, the German Sixth Army launches a desperate assault into the city. While the Germans managed to secure most of the city, the Soviets pulled reinforcements towards their troops stationed outside the city, and on November 19th a two-pronged Soviet attack trapped the Sixth Army in Stalingrad.

Hermann Goring rushes to Berlin in hopes of convincing Hitler to allow a breakout, but he is not allowed to see the Fuhrer, and Hitler, under the influence of Lammers and Bormann, orders the Sixth Army to remain in Stalingrad. Lammers and Bormann proposed a plan under which the Luftwaffe would supply the Sixth Army, knowing full well that the Luftwaffe was unable to complete that task, and hoping to blame Goring, the commander of the Luftwaffe, for the disaster that would follow.

The Soviets in the meantime launch an assault near Moscow, preventing Army Group Center from reinforcing the Sixth Army in Stalingrad.

December
With few other means available Army Group South attempts to put together a relief force for the Sixth Army, but they fail to advance more than 50 km into the Soviet area. The situation in Stalingrad is getting desperate, as German soldiers suffer from continuous attacks, artillery shelling, and the cold.

In Berlin Lammers and Bormann attempt to blame Goring for the disaster at Stalingrad, arguing that his Luftwaffe was supposed to supply the troops. Goring seeks the support of Heinrich Himmler, who has also been shut out from Hitler by Lammers and Bormann and who’s political initiatives have suffered because of Bormann. Together Himmler and Goring decide that if the Reich is to survive they have to act fast.

On December 28th Adolf Hitler dies of an apparent heart attack, although Lammers and Bormann claim that he has been poisoned by the SS on Himmler’s orders. Hermann Goring, being the second in command of the Reich, quickly assumes power and both Lammers and Bormann are arrested.

Aftermath

Hermann Goring opposed the war from the beginning, believing that Germany was not yet ready for another conflict after WWI. He was also certain that the invasion of the USSR was a mistake and that it would lead to a disaster for the Reich. Now, with the loses in Stalingrad and North Africa his predictions seemed to be coming true.

It took almost a month for Goring to establish himself as a complete ruler of the Third Reich, but with Himmler’s help he was able to squash any opposition from other members of the Nazi party. By the time he felt secure the Sixth army in Stalingrad had surrendered, and German casualties in that battle alone numbered over 800,000.

Goring entered into negotiations with the Soviet Union hoping to take Germany out of the war while it was still on top. With German troops still within reach of Moscow, and Zhukov having just suffered a humiliating defeat at Rzhev, Stalin was under pressure to negotiate. Molotov, Malenkov, and Beria, all of whom were afraid of losing the war, led the efforts to sign a peace agreement.

In March Beria and Molotov came to an agreement with Goring, who was also under pressure to sign peace because of Allied progress in North Africa. The USSR ceded Karelia, the Baltic States, most of Belarus, and most of Ukraine, and agreed to limits on its military. The Third Reich could now focus on a single enemy.

The United Kingdom realized the threat that it was facing – Germany was no longer distracted by the Soviets on the Eastern Front. Capitalizing on its successes in North Africa United Kingdom entered into negotiations with Goring, who was keen to end the war. Facing the threat of an invasion, and with the United States unable to offer much in the way of help this early, the United Kingdom was forced to sign peace with Germany in late April.

France was the main victim of the peace treaty – the German-imposed government remained, and France was stripped of all of its colonies. Germany demanded the surrender of India and Egypt, but after negotiations Britain and Germany reached a compromise under which both countries became independent, although both maintained strong links to the UK. Britain was allowed to keep most other colonies, although its empire was now a shadow of its former self.

By summer US, Germany, and Japan had signed peace agreements. Facing the combined forces of Japan and Germany, and with its allies gone, the US government chose to settle the war and allow China to fall to Japan. By mid 1943 the war was over.

Goring’s government in Germany installed National Socialist governments in all of the occupied nations, and created the European Union, an alliance of Fascist and National Socialist countries that was de-facto controlled by Germany. In response the UK and US formed the Atlantic Treaty Organization as a counter-balance to the European Union.

By 1945, US, Germany, and the USSR had tested nuclear weapons and most everyone recognizes that the uneasy peace will not last.

 

[Symphony D.]

Critique:

Stalin was under pressure to negotiate. Molotov, Malenkov, and Beria, all of whom were afraid of losing the war, led the efforts to sign a peace agreement.

Stalin was never under pressure from anybody. Stalin put pressure on others. He was going to have them all killed in the 1954 purge had he not died, and there is nothing preventing him from killing them in 1942 if they displease him either. Stalin does what Stalin wants.

Stalin was apparently planning a later strike anyway. He would use the time to immediately regroup and counterattack at the nearest available opportunity.

The United Kingdom realized the threat that it was facing – Germany was no longer distracted by the Soviets on the Eastern Front. Capitalizing on its successes in North Africa United Kingdom entered into negotiations with Goring, who was keen to end the war. Facing the threat of an invasion, and with the United States unable to offer much in the way of help this early, the United Kingdom was forced to sign peace with Germany in late April.

Why? The United Kingdom is a secure island base. the German Navy and Luftwaffe have already failed at Sealion and cannot pose a direct threat to the UK. On the other hand, a land invasion becomes much more difficult, but there's no reason at all to sign peace, particular with American airpower added in. Why would they concede to letting the Nazis take any of their colonies in return for peace when they can prolong the war indefinitely? Churchill wouldn't accept it. If anything, he'd be glad to eject Stalin and the Soviets and press forward with the US to continue the perpetuation of the British Empire, which Roosevelt's appeasement of Stalin had been dismantling. With Stalin gone, there would be nothing to prevent Churchill from working far closer with Roosevelt.

By summer US, Germany, and Japan had signed peace agreements. Facing the combined forces of Japan and Germany, and with its allies gone, the US government chose to settle the war and allow China to fall to Japan. By mid 1943 the war was over.

Don't buy it. The United States wouldn't settle for peace with Japan that early. It flat-out would not be accepted by the public or FDR. Furthermore whether Germany is occupied with the USSR is totally immaterial to American interests; Germany has no method whatsoever of striking at the United States proper except U-Boats and Saboteurs, and the US can respond much more harshly with airpower in Britain (whose surrender, again, is nonsense).

By 1945, US, Germany, and the USSR had tested nuclear weapons and most everyone recognizes that the uneasy peace will not last.

This fact, above all the others, is totally and utterly preposterous. In every single way imaginable, it is impossible to explain with any POD, no matter how wide-ranging, short of Hitler not starting pogroms against Jews or attacking them in any way, and probably not even then. Nobody was in a position to beat or even remotely tie the United States in atomic bomb development, peace or not.

Basically all three Allied Leaders are behaving wildly out of their character and ambitions. Stalin wanted Soviet Europe, Churchill wanted the British Empire maintained, and Roosevelt wanted Pax Americana. None of them would have settled for anything less, just as Hitler wasn't going to stop until it was all over. None of them would make those compromises. WWII was very much a war of personalities on the top levels. This scenario might make sense if Stalin died and was replaced by Beria, Churchill died and was replaced by someone, and Roosevelt died and was replaced by Henry Wallace, maybe even with two out of these three, but otherwise it doesn't.

 

[Stormbringer]

Ok Symph, then let's fix the parts that seem to not fit. I considered the possibility that Stalin would die or be killed, allowing for the peace process to take place with the USSR.

The peace process with the allies is a stretch, because I did not really know how to make it possible. Well, let's pretend for a second that it did not happen and that Germany, Italy, and Japan pushed ahead with the war, but not free from the meanace of the Soviet army on the Eastern Front. Is it possible that without the USSR as part of the equation Germany and Italy would be able to retake North Africa and take the Middle East?

If it also possible that without the USSR the American and British invasion of Europe would fail because of the millions more German soldiers available to fight off the invasion?

Would it make sense to extend the war against the allies and to have Germany emerge as victorious, but as you already said yourself, not able to strike directly at the UK and the US, thus forcing a peace like the one describe above to take place?

 

[Symphony D.]

Is it possible that without the USSR as part of the equation Germany and Italy would be able to retake North Africa and take the Middle East?

No. Operation Torch started in November, 1942. The Italian Army was a joke and it was pretty much a German operation. They'd have to redeploy heavy forces there and quite frankly that'd be near impossible with British seapower and Allied airpower. North Africa is lost by mid-1943. They have no way of regaining it or assaulting Saudi Arabia or Suez.

If it also possible that without the USSR the American and British invasion of Europe would fail because of the millions more German soldiers available to fight off the invasion?

Maybe. It depends on where the Allies land. They might still go ahead with the invasion of Italy. Hitler has to defend from the Nordcap in Norway to the Atlantic Pyrennes on the French-Spanish border and from the Mediterranean Pyrennes to Crete. Even if he has several million more men all that's needed is a strike in the right place. It'd be more difficult and if they did it wrong it'd be bad news. But it's still quite possible for the allies to get somewhere: say, strike in Italy and the Balkans instead of France as a distraction, go for Romania to cut its oil fields out, and so on. Europe would at any rate be under siege and suffering from dwindling resources due to wartime demands: the continent is not self-sufficient and given enough time it would crack.

Given enough time, the Allies might also take to using nukes as "beach busters" (however hazardous that might be to the long-term health of their troops). I read an interesting idea of using an atomic bomb to create a "nuclear tsunami" to destroy costal positions, once...

Would it make sense to extend the war against the allies and to have Germany emerge as victorious, but as you already said yourself, not able to strike directly at the UK and the US, thus forcing a peace like the one describe above to take place?

Presuming Sea Lion fails, and Barbarossa somehow forces the USSR out without destroying it, Germany's best hope for survival is to drag the war out as long as possible and play a war of attrition. Unfortunately, that is a game in which the United States will always have the edge. Germany's main advantage would be capitalizing on its advanced technology (such as jet fighters and assault rifles) to try and grind away at the Allies in various ways. The problem with this is the Allies aren't far behind and the one superweapon that really matters, the atomic bomb, is vastly beyond Germany's reach.

Mind you, Little Boy was slated to have been dropped on Berlin if Germany hadn't surrendered by then--the Allies had long ago agreed Germany was the more important threat. So no matter how long Germany drags it out, atomic bombs will start falling on it. Their only hope of winning a war of attrition in this instance is by inflicting such horrific casualties on the Allies that they lose all will to fight before August 1945. I do not see that happening, even should they repulse one or two sea invasions, simply because of the excellent media control of the Allies. Any attempts to even up the odds (chemical or radiological weapons, which Germany could build) would just incense the Allied public even more.

Effectively, even if Germany beats the USSR, it has lost all momentum and is trapped within its own "fortress Europe" and the Allies are free to attack it at their will. I think eventually the Allies would decided to just pound the whole thing into the dust. Thus preoccupied, with their coasts, the Nazi regime presents the perfect opportunity for the Soviet Union to counterattack after 2 or 3 years of rebuilding. I don't see the scenario ending well for Germany.

Japan, in any case, is screwed regardless, because if American GIs aren't fighting in France, they're fighting in the Pacific instead. With the European theater a bomb-and-blockade affair the Allies have a freer hand to pummel Japan while slowly strangling Germany. Europe will pretty much be utterly devastated in such a scenario, leading to perhaps a more intense Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union, and perhaps a still functioning British Empire (allied to the United States). The battleground will probably be the Nazi regime, beset as it is on all sides by enemies and slowly crumbling under economic collapse and hardship, and Asia, where they'll compete for influence.

The only way Germany comes out of it in good shape in my estimation is if it wins Sealion and Barbarossa (either totally or sufficiently to knock it out of the war), in which case the United States might call Europe something of a lost cause. But then again it focuses more on Japan and dooms it. Then you probably have a cold war between the United States and Nazi Germany, with the United States focusing more heavily on Asia (don't imagine Mao Zedong would win this go around) and a vengeful USSR eyeing Germany wearily (if it's still around).

 

[Azale]

It will last longer than 4 updates largely because I am back to homeschooling, screw public school. I learn more homeschooling anyway, and it gives me more time to mod stuff

 

[das]

I'm vetoing the discussion for now. I generally hate post-1939 althists, the Germans were virtually doomed from the start, plus the world of military theory was generally commited to "total war" by then.

Azale, here's the link:
http://www.angelfire.com/gundam/japanese_empire/

 

[silver 2039]

GUNDAM!!!!!!! Man I loved that show back in the day. Oh yeah great plot, proablay one of the better animes around. Does this alth history have Gundam giant death robots?

 

[Symphony D.]

Oh yeah great plot, proablay one of the better animes around.

Since when is "WWII in space with angsty teens" a good plot?

 

[Azale]

Nope, no giant robots yet

 

[Stormbringer]

Ok Symph, so lets continue the discussion. I have two proposals for you then.

First, asume that everything goes as in the alt-history above, up to the Soviet peace treaty. Let's asume that Goring, who has been anti-war from the begining of the Nazi regime, realizes that with the loss of North Africa it was impossible for Germany to win the war, and asks for a peace agreement with the UK and US. What would be the conditions of the peace agreement in mid-1943? What would happen to the German-held territories? What sort of a peace would the allies agree to?

Second, let's move the POD to earlier. Let's take the power-struggle within Hitler's government and make it more explicit and more deep. Heydrich dies, thus triggering a power struggle, in which Goring and Himmler, who have been frustrated by Bormann's monopoly over access to Hitler, decide to take action fearing that Bormann would gain absolute control over the Reich (as some historians argue he did). Let's asume that Goring and Himmler take power in mid-1942, before the failure in Egypt and before Operation Blue got well underway. Would that change the prospects of a peace agreement with the USSR? Goring was already convinced that the war with the Soviets was a disaster, so he would push for it, and Stalin (or whoever replaced Stalin, if needed be) not yet emboldened by the victory at Stalingrad and Moscow, would most likley accept some sort of a peace agreement. That leaves Germany with enough time to reenforce Rommel and to shift forces to North Africa, possibly enough to hold it against Operation Torch. Overall, do you believe that the extra 6 months would give Germany an advantage needed to push the allies to a peace treaty by mid-1943?

 

[das]

silver, you do realise that the "gundam" in the adress doesn't actually have anything to do with the althist (which I suggested that you should mod) itself?

So, what do you think, Azale?

 

[Stormbringer]

Since das is around I will toss this out for him to read. If he thinks it has any merit what so ever I will translate it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/in_depth/newsid_4777000/4777334.stm

 

[Symphony D.]

It will last longer than 4 updates largely because I am back to homeschooling, screw public school.

If somebody is standing over you with a pistol and shaking his head in a few months, you'll know why. I'll accept this... for now.

First, asume that everything goes as in the alt-history above, up to the Soviet peace treaty. Let's asume that Goring, who has been anti-war from the begining of the Nazi regime, realizes that with the loss of North Africa it was impossible for Germany to win the war, and asks for a peace agreement with the UK and US. What would be the conditions of the peace agreement in mid-1943? What would happen to the German-held territories? What sort of a peace would the allies agree to?

Maybe they'd give up Poland, Austria, and Czechoslovakia, and Alsace-Lorraine (again) but damn if they'd let Germany take over the entire Balkans or install a puppet regime in France. I don't think Germany would just shrug and hand them off in return.

That leaves Germany with enough time to reenforce Rommel and to shift forces to North Africa, possibly enough to hold it against Operation Torch. Overall, do you believe that the extra 6 months would give Germany an advantage needed to push the allies to a peace treaty by mid-1943?

No, I don't. The Mediterranean Sea is a British lake. More men in a giant desert whose supply routes are on the very verge of breaking just means more men dying of lack of water, hygene, and all the other deprivations they suffer as resources are spread thinner. Whatever troops Rommel receives will not be acclimated to the fighting conditions of the desert or maintaining their equipment in it, and will stretch his supplies further still. He barely held on as it was with the army he had; how will he do that when it's even bigger? For whatever victory the forces might grant him he'll be on a timer--if he doesn't push into Saudi Arabia by the time it's over, he loses. Even if he does, America lands in Morocco and Tunisia and blindsides him. He doesn't have the forces to guard both ways with his supplies running out.

North Africa is untennable.

Quite frankly I don't think diplomatic PODs work in WWII. They need to either be technological or military, perhaps with some diplomatic changes as a result, but not as the cause.

So, what do you think, Azale?

I'd just like to say, as a reminder, that that history becomes trash after about 2010. Just in case he does want to mod it.

 

[Stormbringer]

Ok Symphony, now we have a problem of Germany's inability to win in the Mediterranean...maybe a better POD would be Spain's entry into the war on the German side...what do you think?

 

[Symphony D.]

That'd be extremely stupid of Spain. The Allies made it explicitly clear what would happen should Franco intervene. That's exactly why he didn't. Plus he has nothing to gain from doing so, except Gibraltar, and what does that get him? He takes Gibraltar, so what (and that'd be exceedingly difficult anyway)? Spain has no Navy, and the British can still force their way through, or get in via Suez. Furthermore, all that does is expand the area in which the Allies can invade later, and in the meantime open Spain up to Allied bombing (which Spain can't defend against). What on earth could he possibly get out of declaring war? Part of Vichy France? It's already a puppet. Colonies? Please.

Why are we dealing in these extreme implausibilities of things that in all likelihood would not happen instead of altering an event that did happen and having it go in an alternate way, instead of supposing assorted people randomly went crazy (hereby defined as: vastly out of their routines of behavior) in order for us to get an end-state we desire?

Since you seem to be aiming for the specific goal of keeping Nazi Germany around, why not just go back in time untl 1939, have Hitler die in a car accident, and postpone the invasion of Poland, sticking to the plan and starting the war in 1942 - 1945 with a massive technolocial advantage instead? Or have an actual operation like Sealion work? There's no need to invoke this other nonsense when practical opportunities present themselves.

 

[Stormbringer]

The goal is to have WWII end with all three blocks semi-intact. A Soviet Union that remains alive, not as strong as OTL, but still a force, a Germany that does not lose the war and retains its power, and the Allies that are able to be the thrid force. If you have a plausalbe way of making that happen without a peace agreement at some point please let me know how. And would the same argument of "it was impossible" not apply to the POD where Sealion was succesful same as it applies to the POD where Rommel is succesful?

 

[Azale]

silver, you do realise that the "gundam" in the adress doesn't actually have anything to do with the althist (which I suggested that you should mod) itself?

So, what do you think, Azale?

I've read up to 1970 on the briefer timeline, after searching around the site for about 20 minutes looking for the History link

I like it, the only problem is I have not found a map for it. Basically, whoever gets me a map and a cool timeline, I will mod it. Which part do you think will be best to cut off at? 2002? 1956 (when Japan tested its first nuclear weapon)?