PoD-for-the-day (#15 - March 26th, 2007): Harold Godwinson supports Tostig during the Northumbrian revolt. The rebels are eventually defeated, but the realm is weakened and Northumbria is antagonised. Consequently, in 1066 most of the local nobles and city-dwellers rebel again, in the favour of Harald Hardrada as the nearest foreign sovereign; with Northumbrian help - and without much local resistance - Harald manages to defeat Harold. However, he is weakened in the struggle, while Harold succesfully flees south and eventually agrees to abdicate in the favour of William the Bastard, who has already captured London with nary a fight (obviously, Harold and his family get a lot of privileges and such from this deal). Eventually William expels Harald and his allies from Mercia and other such provinces, but is unable to conquer Northumbria (that includes Deira); and an eventual settlement formalises this state of affairs.
In a smaller Norman England, Norman and French cultural influences would be stronger than the Anglo-Saxon ones (i.e. the proportion is even more in the favour of the former than in OTL); after all, Northumbria was one of the most important cultural centres, as well as political and economic. Without its balancing influence - and its northern opportunities - the Normans would turn towards France earlier, probably seeking to subjugate William's old enemies the Bretons. Generally England's resources would be used to expand Normandy and possibly claim the French throne. A variant would be an eventual (early 12th century?) Norman Empire, consisting of England sans Northumbria, Wales, Flandres and northern France. Southern France would, naturally, be dominated by Aquitaine (possibly a kingdom in its own right, or claiming succession to the Kingdom of France after its destruction by the Normans). That kingdom is likely to enter a union with Aragon, and become a major player in Spanish and Mediterranean politics. An Aquitainian-unified Iberia hasn't been done before, I believe.
Meanwhile, the elimination of an unified France would likely lead to renewed independence of Burgundy (meaning the pre-1004 Imperial Burgundies); it would either become an Imperial subject or a major independent player in Italy. Either way it is likely to eventually develop a distinct national identity, based on a mix of strong French, Italian, German and Ancient Roman influences. Not sure if it could become a major power, at least for long. Much depends on the dynastic issues here.
Either way, the Holy Roman Empire is better off with much pressure taken off it in the west. It still will have to deal with internal divisions and feudal strife, so I doubt that it would be much stronger, although if the Emperor takes over Burgundy it might become a good power base, especially for the inevitable Italian campaigns.
Not sure if the Crusades will occur, or at least gain widespread support from the European monarchs if such see better opportunities at home. The Normans in general will be busy conquering France, and the Aquitainians will involve themselves in the Reconquista. The Emperor might actually be more interested, though. That alone may be a reason for Urban I to forget about the whole thing and let the schismatics find a way out of their troubles themselves. Although, the schismatics might still get
condititonal assistance from the Most Serene Republicans.
As for Norway-Northumbria... well, if it is to last (and that would be a logical prerequisite for independence of both Northumbria and Norway from their neighbours, who are likely to be less considerate for their subjects; its how long-term unions work) then its natural enemy would be Scotland. After that, Ireland, and then they would consolidate hold on Iceland, Greenland and whatever might be beyond that (and I know its a cliche; its just that there are way too many paths logically leading to an earlier Medieval discovery of the New World). I suspect that Northumbria - already having been influenced by the Norse - would be Norsified further, though some Anglo-Saxon influence would creep into Norwegian culture as well. Another thing; such ties, if they are retained, would probably prevent Norway from falling to either Denmark or Sweden, and that would leave the two fighting over the Baltic Sea instead of Scandinavia. That might lead to my previous Danish Baltic hegemony scenario.
. Even though it could have happened.
