Alternate History Thread III

Hmm, no, strangely enough I don't remember that at all. I suppose that would change things, yes (though the Germans in Hungary were Saxons, not Bavarians, and the latter were the least German of those that remained Germans; perhaps this would eventually lead to Bavarian culture splitting away from the German one as well, like the Swiss one did?).
I wouldn't see Bavarian culture and German culture seperating any time in the immediate future, though over time the religious divide and Bohemian influence could very well do that.
All the Emperors held that title, actually - until Napoleon took it for himself.
Hmm, I suppose my knowledge of the titles fo the Holy Roman Emperor needs some refreshing. I suppose that some sort of conflict could arise, but given that the Republic of Italy is just that and claims no right to the title of King of Italy the clash should be further down the line. Although, it should be noted that soon enough religious problems are going to become far more of a problem than this little conflict over nomenclature.
Actually, he simply propped it up in its natural struggles with its neighbours, and perhaps set it on that course by granting the title of the grand prince to the Muscovite prince. There isn't much he could do unless Muscovy itself gets into trouble. Which it is bound to, ofcourse.
Will fix then. It actually gives me a few ideas that could make this TL a little more interesting.
It was hardly far away in OTL; the Khan perceived it to be far away, however, and reasonably so because the steppe formed a nice barrier.
Will be fixed by the changes I am making according to the above statement.
Actually it seems more like a northern focus, because for the last few years he was campaigned in the Baltic region and intriguing in Novgorod - so his threat is perceived to be lesser.
The Commonwealth of Lithuania-Novgorod was formed all the way back in 1414, and with that Vytautas had little reason to continue focusing his efforts there. In fact, militarily, Vytautas was already pushing to the south and east. By 1416, a few years after OTL IIRC, he had reached the Black Sea. The war with Moscow begins over a decade later in 1428. Lithania-Novgorod was very much an eastern focused empire at this point in TTL as Vytautas was very much an eastern focused emperor who cared little about the Baltic. This will likely change with the death of Vytautas and the end of the Muscovite war, but at this point it is entirely accurate to say that Lithuania-Novgorod had an eastern focus.
But these did take more time than that.
No, not really. Vytautas conquered a swath of land many times larger than the Muscovite holdings in the span of a couple decades. The conquest of Muscovy takes about five years following a rather quick capture of Moscow. You are very much underestimating Vytautas' abilities. I may lengthen the war slightly, as it appears to be shorter than I actually intended, but I will not lengthen it much and I see no reason to lengthen it much.
Part of the charm or of the annoyance of contemporary warfare was that it was very time-consuming. Sieges made it difficult and time-consuming for even the greatest empires to advance; just look at all the trouble Mehmed II went through to take what was just one city, albeit highly significant, expertly (but still obsoletely) fortified and strategically-positioned - and even then he had a somehow implausible amount of luck on his side.
Constantinople was the best defended city in the whole bloody world, I hardly think that it has any correlation to a war between a much, much, much larger force with tremendous leadership and a much, much, much smaller force with few defenses to fall back on.
Gah. What does Hungary's power have to do with anything, here? It is irrelevant unless it is used to subdue Poland's dissenting elements by force, and that is likely to cause a local civil war at the least. Unless such a radical course is taken, Hungary's fortunes in Poland depend entirely on intrigue and what they can offer to the szlachta - as opposed ot the intrigue and the promise of the other competitors for the Polish throne, which to some extent will include just about every major royal house in Europe, because Poland, for all of its troubles, is large, powerful and at the same time comparatively easy to seize - an unique opportunity to alter the balance of power epically.
Hungary's power has to do with it because potential rebels and outside inteferences tend to be a little more cautious when facing a power many times larger than them, and at this point the greatest power in Europe. There may be a civil war further down the line, I can tell you honestly that I have been seriously contemplating the likelyhood.
 
RE: nukeless scenario: it seems a bit contrived that the entire strategic nuclear arsenal is wasted, but I suppose that the leaders at the time decided that "better safe than sorry". Anyhow, that scenario does have a lot of interesting potential. I always said that these nuclear arsenals prevented WWIII and generally made late 20th century much more boring than it could've been.

If the PoD is in 1980, how will it affect the Afghan War (will it even happen?) and the Iran-Iraq War? Especially after WWIII begins. Whom do the Iranians hate less, and who helped Iraq more?

I wouldn't see Bavarian culture and German culture seperating any time in the immediate future, though over time the religious divide and Bohemian influence could very well do that.

Is pretty much what I meant.

I suppose that some sort of conflict could arise, but given that the Republic of Italy is just that and claims no right to the title of King of Italy the clash should be further down the line. Although, it should be noted that soon enough religious problems are going to become far more of a problem than this little conflict over nomenclature.

Any Holy Roman Emperor is bound to have some interest in Italian affairs, and said affairs are downright chaotic now.

The Commonwealth of Lithuania-Novgorod was formed all the way back in 1414, and with that Vytautas had little reason to continue focusing his efforts there. In fact, militarily, Vytautas was already pushing to the south and east. By 1416, a few years after OTL IIRC, he had reached the Black Sea. The war with Moscow begins over a decade later in 1428. Lithania-Novgorod was very much an eastern focused empire at this point in TTL as Vytautas was very much an eastern focused emperor who cared little about the Baltic. This will likely change with the death of Vytautas and the end of the Muscovite war, but at this point it is entirely accurate to say that Lithuania-Novgorod had an eastern focus.

Your mistake is that you are talking about reality here. I am talking about the Khan's perception. Vytautas' last major campaign was in the north. Yedisan was pretty much neglected by most Khans, as it trully is quite unimportant.

Vytautas conquered a swath of land many times larger than the Muscovite holdings in the span of a couple decades.

What exactly are you talking about, here?

Although, if a "quick capture of Moscow" occurs it would ofcourse go faster.

Constantinople was the best defended city in the whole bloody world, I hardly think that it has any correlation to a war between a much, much, much larger force with tremendous leadership and a much, much, much smaller force with few defenses to fall back on.

Nah. Constantinople's defenses were outdated, while the Kremlin was practically built to counter Lithuanian attacks, in full awareness of their tactics. Furthermore, the Lithuanian force is unlikely to be any stronger than Mehmed II's army, while the Byzantine defenders were very, very few - the Muscovites, meanwhile, always had a fairly large army for their size.

Hungary's power has to do with it because potential rebels and outside inteferences tend to be a little more cautious when facing a power many times larger than them, and at this point the greatest power in Europe.

Really. Outside interferences will be more subtle, that is all; most other European rulers will doubtless be interested in undermining the menacing Hungarian empire. As for the rebels, Polish history shows us that the szlachta is pretty reckless in general and will often revolt against superior force if it perceives itself to be offended.
 
RE: nukeless scenario: it seems a bit contrived that the entire strategic nuclear arsenal is wasted, but I suppose that the leaders at the time decided that "better safe than sorry". Anyhow, that scenario does have a lot of interesting potential. I always said that these nuclear arsenals prevented WWIII and generally made late 20th century much more boring than it could've been.

I agree that it prevented World War III, but I was always much happier about that studying history. The Cold War was rather more interesting for me, at least, than the world wars.
 
I agree that it prevented World War III, but I was always much happier about that studying history. The Cold War was rather more interesting for me, at least, than the world wars.
This one also thinks that if World War 3 had happened our births would have been altered and studying history and NESing may not have been on the top of our priority list.
 
The Fall of the French Empire: 1812-1813.

The date was 17th of September, 1812. The French Empire was at its peak. The "inner empire" alone stretched from Barcelona to Hamburg and Rome (also including the exclave of the Illyrian Provinces), rivaling Charlemagne's empire in size; l'Empereur's relatives, and marshals, and native princes, and local administrators reigned diverse vassal kingdoms and states in Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, Naples, Italy, Helvetia, Confederation of the Rhine and Poland. Prussia's vaunted military has been laid low; it too was forced to submit. The once-proud and arrogant Habsburgs had maried their daughter off to a Corsican commoner who became the French Emperor; and their Austrian Empire too was forced to serve him. The British still remained defiant; they ruled the waves, they won naval battles, they slowly expelled French forces from Spain - but they were incapable of trully harming the Empire, and the Continental Blockade was slowly but surely strangling that nation of shopkeepers. They knew it, too; they subverted Alexander I, the Emperor of Russia, and he ceased the Blockade and even started complaining about l'Empereur's decisions - but all it did was give l'Empereur a good opportunity for a demonstration. He raised la Grande Armee of six hundred thousand men, the largest army in European history, a force of all the European nations, and he led it into Moscow. The Russians did their best to try and stop l'Empereur, they threw their petty armies against him, but were forced to retreat and retreat again, and finally gave up on their ancient capital after that senseless waste of human life at Borodino. In a low trick of barbarian cunning, they lit Moscow aflame, but this failed to intimidate l'Empereur; and so on the 17th of September he returned to Kremlin, as fires died down and the villainous saboteurs were being rounded up. On the way to the ancient fortress, l'Empereurwas shot by a disgruntled and desperate Russian noble. It was a lucky shot, in the end; l'Empereur survived for several hours, physicians scrambled to try and save him, but in the end, just as the assassin was being shot by the firing squad, l'Empereur expired, making history for one last time.

History advances by a combination of orderly social evolution and of catastrophe (frequently man-made) that redraws all borders, rewrites all destinies and changes the course of the aforementioned evolution - sometimes subtly, sometimes dramatically, oftentimes both. It was a catastrophe that destroyed the ancien regime and started the Great French War, and allowed France under l'Empereur Napoleon Bonaparte to advance across Europe, utterly changing just about everything and achieving such hegemony as was unseen since the days of the Caesars. His was a mighty empire, to be sure. It had an extensive bureaucracy, a nigh omnipresent secret police and a mighty army. It had on its side brilliant marshals, adroit diplomats and excellent administrators. Yet in the end it was all held together by one man, who through his ability and charisma had brought it all about and united all those men in the service of the Empire. So one bullet was enough to cause a new catastrophe to destroy Napoleon's empire, to divide his retainers, to bring everything crashing down and everyone rushing to save themselves and, if possible, to benefit in the initial chaos. As the news spread across Europe, everybody scrambled to adjust his position and to make new plans for this completely unexpected development.

In Moscow itself, chaos reigned. Bewildered by the fire and agitated by the looting, la Grande Armee was already beginning to fall apart; l'Empereur's death was the last straw. While some soldiers took out their rage on what few Russian civilians remained, or on each other, or on foreign troops, others - especially but not solely said foreign troops - begun to desert, sometimes one by one, sometimes - as was the case with the Austrian and Prussian contingents - one by one. Napoleon's second in command Michel Ney and some other commanders managed to temporarily rally the army; even Ney, for all of his reckless bravery, had to admit that the situation was desperate, and that there was nothing left for them in Russia. Therefore, after some brief rallying and disciplinnary action, la Grande Armee prepared to retreat from Russia. Due to the disorders the preparations took until well into October, and by then Mikhail Illarionovich Kutuzov was fully aware of the miserable French situation. Having gained a decisive numerical and strategic advantage, he and other Russian commanders prepared to land the killing blow. As the French army set out towards Kaluga, it was intercepted by a large Russian force, tied down in a battle and then attacked by another Russian army on its flank. The Imperial Guard didn't surrender, but died anyway, defending the French retreat; however, due to poor coordination, Michel Ney and his III Corps did not retreat neither, instead launching a vigorous and futile counterattack, also hoping to defend the French retreat. The rest did actually retreat, and under de Beauharnais actually reached the Smolensk road. The Russians had suffered higher casualties than expected at Maloyaroslavets (although they were rewarded by the capture of Michel Ney and some other French commanders, not to mention a lot of banners), but nonetheless soon begun the pursuit of la Grande Armee's remnants; said remnants were also being attacked by partisans, and small Cossack detachments, and hunger, and frost, and disease. By November, la Grande Armee ceased to exist; a fair amount of men, though now lacking any order whatsoever, had in fact crossed the western Russian border back, but the last organised portions of la Grande Armee were wiped out at Borisov, on the Berezina River. All over Russia - and indeed Europe - people quoted 2 Kings 19:35 extensively.

To the west, the Napoleonic system collapsed spectacularily. Karl XIV Johan of Sweden (formerly Napoleon's marshal Jean-Baptiste Bernadotte) was the first to denounce France; as soon as news of Napoleon's death reached Stockholm he signed an alliance with Russia and Britain, sending forces to reoccupy Swedish Pommerania. French garrisons there surrendered without a fight, as by then it became clear that France needed them more. The same soon occured in Prussia. While Friedrich Wilhelm III was vacillating and indecisive as always, Kanzler Karl August von Hardenberg and General Hans Dawid Ludwig Yorck von Wartenburg took the initative; the former demanded the withdrawal of French garrisons from the country, and the latter signed an armistice with Russia, withdrawing from Lithuania. Soon Prussia too joined the forming Sixth Coalition and moved its forces to occupy Saxony. The Austrians proved more hesitant, at the urging of Klemens Wenzel von Metternich, who didn't fear French reprisals but rather was afraid of losing Austria's hard-earned diplomatic independence to Russia. Still, as the Prussians begun to advance into the Confederation of the Rhine, while the Russians overran the Duchy of Warsaw, the Austrians saw no choice but to send troops into the Illyrian Provinces, Bavaria (which occupied much of Tyrolia) and the Kingdom of Italy. Meanwhile, Joachim Murat - who had survived the Russian disaster and briefly remained in Austrian custody in Vienna - rode to reclaim the Kigndom of Naples, with temporary Austrian backing as he promised to ally with Austria but not with Prussia or Russia.

As in spite of Karl von Dalberg's fondest efforts the Confederation of the Rhine crumbled, its rulers declaring independence and expeling French garrisons before someone else does it for them, a British expeditionary force, accompanied by Prince Willem VI of Orange, landed in Holland to help an Orangist insurgency. And another British force, under the Duke of Wellington in Spain, captured Madrid; it and the allied Spanish guerrilas met little or no opposition as they advanced to the Ebro. The French were executing a fighting retreat, marshal Louis-Gabriel Suchet wanting to have a hand in his country's destiny, as France itself fell to civil war.

For as soon as the news of Napoleon's death reached Paris, a republic coup d'etat occured, under the leadership of General Claude Francois de Malet. The rebels seized Paris itself, but failed to make much progress outside of the city. The Dowager Empress Marie-Louise and the little Emperor Napoleon II fled to Toulouse, where the Bonapartist forces rallied; it was they that Suchet joined at first. And in the Vendee, a new royalist insurgency commenced, though Louis XVI was not yet ready to join it. As if that wasn't enough, intrigues and conspiracies abounded and French forces from the evacuated parts of Europe gathered in the east under commanders of yet-uncertain allegience.

In early 1813, while Prussian and Austrian forces removed the few remaining French garrisons in Italy and Germany, while the British cleaned out Catalonia and Holland and while the Tagsatzung declared Swiss Confederacy's renewed independence and revoked Napoleon's Act of Mediation, the civil war in France trully escalated. Marshal Pierre Augereau took command of the French forces assembled at Metz, though still mostly sitting on the sidelines. Republican militias were levied and the regions surrounding Paris were seized; soon enough Normandy and Orleans were secured as well. The rebels in Vendee took over Brittany, but their "march on Paris" was thwarted. The Bonapartists secured Lyon and defeated a royalist force at Tours.

In spring, European diplomats discussed intervention in the civil war. While an Anglo-Prusso-Russian force was being assembled in Holland and the Rhineland (by then also cleared of French garrisons in a popular insurgency), an Austrian one swiftly invaded Provence. This army was accompanied by Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Perigord, who then swiftly negotiated an armistice and impromptu alliance between Austria and Pierre Augereau's forces, in the best interests of France. The Bonapartists were pushed out of Lyon and also attacked by the Duke of Wellington from the south. Meanwhile, the Republic defeated the main royalist force in Vendee and briefly asserted control of northern France; but itself was beginning to fall into infighting, as Malet, for all of his charisma, couldn't gain any real support from the population. And on the 5th of June, he was overthrown, arrested and hanged by the National Guard. The short-lived Second Republic fell apart, and Paris ended up under the control of Conseil d'Etat, headed by one of France's foremost intriguers, Joseph Fouche, the former Minister of Police. While negotiations in Paris continued, Augereau and his Anglo-Austrian allies attacked Suchet, defeating him at Toulouse itself. At this point the Dowager Empress and Napoleon II were forced to renounce their titles and claims and were forced to return to Vienna, while Suchet capitulated to Augereau. So now most of France was in the hand of moderate forces or their foreign allies, with the Ultraroyalists, the Republicans and the Bonapartists all thoroughly defeated.

It still seemed to be a shaky situation, with the country weakened by the fighting in all regards, and dissent still high, and radical conspiracies still in Paris. But Fouche and Talleyrand, while usually each other's archnemeses, decided to join forces to save France. While Fouche retook command over the police and cracked down on all resistance (at the same time placating most of the long-suffering populace with promises of peace and stability), Talleyrand negotiated with foreign powers, using his extensive personal connections and past agreements well. So even as the last fighting occured in Europe - Sweden opportunistically occupying Norway and the Austrians removing Joachim Murat in the wake of changed circumstances - a "Congress of Nations" was assembled at Versailles.

The Congress of Versailles: 1813-1814.

The Congress of Versailles was very drawn-out - it occured over the course of approximately eight months - and could not even be called a single event, as it consisted of numerous balls, meetings, sessions and assemblies, and ofcourse assorted secret negotiations and informal contacts. Still, it wasn't nearly as chaotic as it seemed; for one thing, it as a whole remained loyal to the originally-intended purpose of rearranging the map of Europe to the maximum convenience of the Great Powers.

Arguments raged, and diplomatic clashes occured over Belgian, Saxon, Polish and other issues; but in the end, while the seeds of the future alliance systems were already sown, the monarchs and chief statesmen of Europe were able to issue a proclamation of their mutual friendship and shared good will, and wishes for peace and justice in new Europe. So anyway:

The old monarchies were restored in most kingdoms where they were previously removed, to some extent or another. The Portuguese royal family returned to Lisbon, and reannexed the border town of Olivenza, which the Spanish had conquered from Portugal in 1801 with French support. The rest of Spain, including Catalonia, was restored to the Bourbons, though Carlos IV remained in his ignoble exile; instead, the initially-popular Fernando VII took the throne (accepting a liberal constitution). Both Spain and Portugal soon negotiated a secret alliance with the British; the full consequences of this would become clear soon after, but suffice it to say that they were much more dramatic and influential for the New World rather than for the Old.

The Bourbons also recovered France; Louis XVIII, who had wisely waited out the civil war, now returned in agreement with the Conseil d'Etat, and also accepted a fairly liberal constitution, pledging to follow a policy of compromise and amiability to heal the nation's wounds. As far as most Europeans were concerned, however, the true ruler of France was Talleyrand; his position was actually neither as strong or as secure as perceived, but as far as foreign affairs were concerned the Prince de Benevent was indeed supreme. Whereas many of the allies - especially the British and the Prussians - initially wanted to push France back to the borders of 1789, Talleyrand maneuvered with his usual skill to preserve as much territory as possible. In Belgium - which the British initially intended to make an united and independent kingdom - he managed to receive the support of all the interested parties (including Austria, which was eager to get rid of regional entanglements; Britain and Prussia were much more grudging, but in the end accepted this too, in exchange for concessions elsewhere) for a three-way partition project, which left the northern half of Belgium in Dutch hands, the southern Francophone in French and the Duchy of Luxemburg in Prussian (the Hohenzollerns having the most legitimate and recent 15th century claim to it). The northern Belgian lands were joined with the liberated Holland to form the Kingdom of the Netherlands, under the House of Orange and with a moderate constitution. To get Prussian support the French not only had to recognise their claims to Luxemburg, but also needed to support a project of von Hardenberg's, which saw Prussia annex the entirety of Saxony and the Saxon ruling house being compensated with a "Kingdom of the Rhineland" (which did not include Saar or the parts of the Palatinate west of the Rhine, which France kept; or Cleves, which was kept by Prussia). Austria raised some ruckus, but as France, Prussia and Russia seemed to all support this project had no choice but to accept. In compensation it reached a good agreement with France over Italy: Austria annexed Venice and Lombardy, while France retained Nice and Savoy; other Habsburgs were restored or imposed in Modena, Parma and Tuscany, while the Bourbons returned to the Two Sicilies; aside from that, the pre-revolutionary borders were retained, and Piedmont was thwarted in its designs on the Republic of Genoa; and most importantly, both great powers swore to uphold the existing order in Italy, imposing a Franco-Austrian hegemony there.

Austria also reclaimed Illyria and Tyrolia. The map of Germany was generally redrawn again; numerous Napoleonic states were removed, but a lot of tiny pre-Mediation principalities and bishoprics were left on the ash-heap of history, though Central Germany remained quite balkanised. Bavaria was compensated for its territorial losses in Tyrolia and the Palatinate with recognition of the Wittelsbach claim on the Grand Duchy of Baden. Prussia annexed Saxony, as alreadym entioned, and made gains elsewhere (most survivign German states did, as already mentioned). A very loose German Confederation was established, in spite of Metternich's attempts to revive a Holy Roman Empire; Austro-Prussian rivalry was on the rise once more.

Swiss Confederacy's independent, neutrality and minor expansion were all recognised and guaranteed.

Sweden retained Swedish Pommerania and entered a personal union with Norway, now wrested from Denmark (which was slightly compensated with the Duchy of Lauenberg in northern Germany); it had to renounce its claims on Finland, though, which remained an autonomous Grand Duchy of the Russian Empire.

The Grand Duchy of Warsaw retained its borders (i.e. it kept Posen and Krakow, amongst other things), but was remade into the Kingdom of Poland, with Alexander I of Russia as king; although in a close personal union with Russia, it did remain fairly autonomous as well, both de jure and de facto, with a fairly liberal constitution and a Sejm. Adam Czartoryski, Alexander's most trusted Polish advisor, was appointed viceroy to Warsaw.

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, which restored its personal union with Hannover, also retained some of its gains in the West Indies, the islands of Malta and Heligoland around Europe (plus a protectorate over the Ioanian Islands), and the Dutch colonies in South Africa and Ceylon; the status of the East Indies remained a bit unclear for now, though it was apparently returned to the Dutch, while the British showed no intention of abandoning the Malay Peninsula. Apart from that all colonies seized by the British were more or less restored.

The issue of slave trade was long disptued, but no definite decision has been reached, in part because of disagreements in the British Parliament itself.

There were some other minor changes as well.

For better or for worse, a new era begun in global and European history.

To be continued...
 
First off, Luckymoose, that was a major part of das' last TL. Take a look at it.

Secondly, I enjoyed the TL, but am understandably miffed about Posen. ;) How is this going to affect the silly little conflict on the other side of the Atlantic...if it happens at all?
 
Secondly, I enjoyed the TL, but am understandably miffed about Posen. How is this going to affect the silly little conflict on the other side of the Atlantic...if it happens at all?

Oh my, I just remembered....Intresting....
 
First off, Luckymoose, that was a major part of das' last TL. Take a look at it.

What was?

How is this going to affect the silly little conflict on the other side of the Atlantic...if it happens at all?

Oh, it happens alright. Its won't be quite so little, though. Or so silly. Heh, heh, heh...
 
Das! Make a table of contents for the Ming timeline so I don't have to search for 30 minutes for it :p
 
But surely with the wars over the Brits will return the impressed american sailors?

The War of 1812 started about two months prior to the PoD (and technically the fighting in Europe only ended in mid-1813). Why would the British return perfectly good sailors to an enemy?

Plus that was only one of the many causes of the war.

Azale, I thought I did do that... Apparently not. Will do it in my next post, then.
 
Charles XII of Sweden :( I thought I had a idea but no I always lose in the end.
No, it's a perfectly fine idea...and you didn't lose anything. It's just really difficult to get up interest for a TL when a concurrent one is already being written. I wasn't trying to be combative or mean, you know...

I decided to actually start writing that next TL.

EDIT: Why is that stupid angry smiley on the top of my post? I didn't put it there...
 
Das are you done with the Ming Timeline or will more installments come?

Done. As you may have noticed, I already started the next one.
 
No, it's a perfectly fine idea...and you didn't lose anything. It's just really difficult to get up interest for a TL when a concurrent one is already being written. I wasn't trying to be combative or mean, you know...

I decided to actually start writing that next TL.

EDIT: Why is that stupid angry smiley on the top of my post? I didn't put it there...

Its ok I was just kinda mad that I had an idea and didn't realise it was in use.

What timeline?
 
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