Alternate History Thread V

[das]

I suppose you could call it an early form of nationalism. A supreme emphasis is placed on the idea of Res Publica, obviously enough; as such, it is neither inherently anti-monarchistic or anti-aristocratic (indeed, there have been many monarchs that have tried to take up the banners of the Res Publica to some extent or another, whereas a common variation of Republicanism places a high emphasis on the patriotic solidarity of the nobility, or in a more general sense the nobles and the free cities), but is aimed against excessive feudal regionalism (obviously this varies from place to place) and foreign influences as represented by foreign rulers and the foreign Roman Church alike. In its original, Polish and Czech form, it was very similar indeed to the more moderate forms of Hussite ideology, with elements of what evolved in OTL into Polish szlachta republicanism. The situation in France is rather more monarchistic, and, in general, oriented more towards a Gallican religious compromise; Gascony is a hotbed of aristocratic Reformist Republicanism, though.

The Thuringian and Helvetian Republics, as well as some of the other more radical movements, are, well, more radical and populist. The Thuringian movement has involved the poorer knights as well as peasants and the urban poor, and has not as a rule been too friendly to the urban elites, despite occasional compromises; it survived for as long as it did (unlike other similar movements during the German Religion Wars) through sheer fanaticism and military and political brilliancy exhibited by some of its leaders, though it helped that their enemies were so often distracted by each other and the French; the Helvetians have been a more general urban movement, and increasingly middle-class in recent times, which doesn't make their political and especially religious ideas (think Calvin-era Calvinism taken further and spread farther) any more acceptable.

 

[North King]

that Central Americans had to offer were not of the kind that would've appealed to the Chinese as much as they appealed to the Europeans. Silver might be a bit different, but even then, the Chinese never were in such a desperate need of any valuable metals as the early modern Europeans.

They really weren't in need of it at all, though they certainly liked it well enough.


As for the metallurgy, Inca metal-working (as I understand it) generally focused on welding together carefully beaten sheets; the result was quite beautiful.

Though completely useless against a sword.

 

[Verily]

I mostly agree, and I think I even did something like that in the past though it was flawed, but one small point here: once again, the

that Central Americans had to offer were not of the kind that would've appealed to the Chinese as much as they appealed to the Europeans. Silver might be a bit different, but even then, the Chinese never were in such a desperate need of any valuable metals as the early modern Europeans.

Well, to some extent, yes, but it would give the Song the ability to spend like drunken sailors. Which, particularly since they would be under serious pressure from the Jin even if the Mongols were butterflied away, would be quite the helpful aid. The Chinese are obviously not going to be obsessing over anything other than precious metals the way the Europeans were, but more silver would have been a huge relief to the Song. Until it would wreck their economy, anyway.

 

[Dachs]

Until it would wreck their economy, anyway.

Ah, in what way?

 

[Verily]

Ah, in what way?

Overdependence on American silver makes them easy prey to Japanese pirates, and when pirates cut the connection across the Pacific, the Song economy collapses due to hyperinflation. This collapse could also be caused by an internal struggle that prevents anyone from putting together the resources to go shake down the Americas for silver when it becomes economically necessary, but I think Japanese (and also Korean, Taiwanese, etc., but primarily Japanese) piracy is the most likely cause.

 

[Dachs]

Overdependence on American silver makes them easy prey to Japanese pirates, and when pirates cut the connection across the Pacific, the Song economy collapses due to hyperinflation. This collapse could also be caused by an internal struggle that prevents anyone from putting together the resources to go shake down the Americas for silver when it becomes economically necessary, but I think Japanese (and also Korean, Taiwanese, etc., but primarily Japanese) piracy is the most likely cause.

There was no catastrophic decline in Ming silver imports in the early seventeenth century - the loss of trade from the Portuguese after their expulsion from Nagasaki and predations by Japanese pirates was more than compensated for by the increase in trade borne by native Chinese traders and the Dutch. See Maloughney and Xia, "Silver and the Fall of the Ming", the 1989 article in Papers in Far Eastern History, and von Glahn, "Myth and Reality of China's 17th Century Monetary Crisis", a 1996 paper in the Journal of Economic History.

...and I didn't realize what we were talking about again. Dammit, this is one of the only parts of Chinese history I know about.

 

[Masada]

They really weren't in need of it at all, though they certainly liked it well enough.

See, I'm not sure that's the truth. European silver has always had an 'alarming' propensity to bleed east, if not necessarily directly then indirectly via the Islamic world and India. The differential between the European price for silver and the Indian and Chinese price for silver has long been known and exploited going all the back to the ma' boy Dach's Periplus. Indian silver bleed into China via the northern silk route and Southeast Asian silver bleed into China to finance what is assumed to have been a large positive account balance on China's part. I can't provide any figures for this early in history, but if the Ming situation is anything to judge from, then the Song demand for silver was probably quite considerable. I rather wish I still had the paper which covered exactly this question

The Chinese are obviously not going to be obsessing over anything other than precious metals the way the Europeans were, but more silver would have been a huge relief to the Song.

What did the Europeans Hapsburg's do with all that silver, or more precisely where did it go and to what use was it put? Conversely where did the Song source their silver and what effect did its rescission have on them? Therein lies the issues I have with your assumption.

Overdependence on American silver

I don't believe that the Song could become overdependent on American silver for two reasons. The first, is that they didn't have the technological capabilities to mine many of the larger New World deposits. Potosí to my understanding simply wasn't feasible unless one knew how to use the patio process of silver extraction. Even assuming they had the knowledge, they didn't have the requisite mercury deposits internally or access to external deposits, those used by the Spanish were on the eastern side of Mexico. The second is that the economy of the Song was large and monetized, with significant external trade such that it was possible that any silver inflows could have been absorbed in the internal economy or spent on external trade.

makes them easy prey to Japanese pirates, and when pirates cut the connection across the Pacific, the Song economy collapses due to hyperinflation.

Where did the hyperinflation come from? It was probably more likely that it would have suffered deflation considering that it is widely acclaimed for its 'good' monetary policy. I'm also going to ask, how in the hell you end up with hyperinflation in the pre-modern era? I can't think of a single instance of true hyper-inflation happening, the real economy demonetizes so quickly it stops being all that useful measure. Its the old story of good money

This collapse could also be caused by an internal struggle that prevents anyone from putting together the resources to go shake down the Americas for silver when it becomes economically necessary, but I think Japanese (and also Korean, Taiwanese, etc., but primarily Japanese) piracy is the most likely cause.

The Song were pretty capable at sea, besides I'm inclined to believe that the best route passes south of Okinawa which definitely rules out the Koreans and probably the Japanese at least at this stage. In any case, we're talking about an empire which is considerably more functional than Hapsburg Spain.

There was no catastrophic decline in Ming silver imports in the early seventeenth century

Also this!

 

[das]

The Song were pretty special as far as Chinese dynasties were concerned anyway. The central state authorities were weaker overall without the state actually falling apart, so there was more of a "private sector" (Soviet textbook term) in the economy, and the state relied more on internal and external commerce for revenues being unable to control the state lands as per the traditional Chinese model. It was a more money-oriented economy than is usual for China, so it's logical that they would have a greater demand for silver I suppose. It's rather more interesting to me how the silver demand situation compared with previous and subsequent dynasties.

 

[Verily]

What did the Europeans Hapsburg's do with all that silver, or more precisely where did it go and to what use was it put? Conversely where did the Song source their silver and what effect did its rescission have on them? Therein lies the issues I have with your assumption.

I suppose this will be addressed later on without actually answering the rhetoric questions

I don't believe that the Song could become overdependent on American silver for two reasons. The first, is that they didn't have the technological capabilities to mine many of the larger New World deposits. Potosí to my understanding simply wasn't feasible unless one knew how to use the patio process of silver extraction. Even assuming they had the knowledge, they didn't have the requisite mercury deposits internally or access to external deposits, those used by the Spanish were on the eastern side of Mexico.

True, but the Spanish were far, far more dependent on American silver than I suggest the Song would have become. The Song are not going to be setting up massive mines. Rather, they'll be threatening the locals into giving up all of their (already-mined) silver. That's a much smaller quantity, but it's still enough to cause serious dependency issues.

The second is that the economy of the Song was large and monetized, with significant external trade such that it was possible that any silver inflows could have been absorbed in the internal economy or spent on external trade.

Certainly true; the problem isn't the infusion of silver (the way it was with Spain), but rather its removal.

Where did the hyperinflation come from? It was probably more likely that it would have suffered deflation considering that it is widely acclaimed for its 'good' monetary policy. I'm also going to ask, how in the hell you end up with hyperinflation in the pre-modern era? I can't think of a single instance of true hyper-inflation happening, the real economy demonetizes so quickly it stops being all that useful measure. Its the old story of good money

Hyperinflation happened in China in the pre-modern era, actually, in the mid-Ming. (Not on the scale of Hungary or Germany or Argentina, of course, but certainly stunningly rapid inflation for the time, something like a thousandfold in one ruler's rule.) Actually, it happened because the silver supply declined after the Ming emperor at the time banned the mining of silver and continued to issue paper currency. Which is basically exactly what would probably happen to the Song, except the silver supply would be stopped by piracy rather than a ban on mining.

The Song were pretty capable at sea, besides I'm inclined to believe that the best route passes south of Okinawa which definitely rules out the Koreans and probably the Japanese at least at this stage. In any case, we're talking about an empire which is considerably more functional than Hapsburg Spain.

The Song were very good at sailing along coastlines. How good they were at dealing with the Pacific is a whole different story--we don't know, because they never tried

I admit that I am not familiar with what the best route across the Pacific would have been. However, any route would be vulnerable to piracy. We're not talking about the Song at their peak by the time the trans-Pacific route comes crashing down. Now, the Ming economy was pretty much shut down for a while by piracy, but of course the Ming were a lot less capable seafarers than the Song. Yet a trans-oceanic route is far more vulnerable than a coastal one, and Ming trade was all coastal. So I think it perfectly reasonable that a Song empire that is stagnating could see its trans-Pacific routes cut by piracy, resulting in rapid decline.

Also this!

Dachs appeared to be confused at to what were discussing, and his point, while completely true, is also totally irrelevant.

 

[Masada]

True, but the Spanish were far, far more dependent on American silver than I suggest the Song would have become.

Sure, that's what you were saying:

hyperinflation

Nuff' said.

The Song are not going to be setting up massive mines. Rather, they'll be threatening the locals into giving up all of their (already-mined) silver. That's a much smaller quantity, but it's still enough to cause serious dependency issues.

The quantities would not have been sufficient to achieve what you think it would have. The Spanish rapidly exhausted all the readily accessible sources of silver via a plunder mechanism and the working out of alluvial deposits. It wasn't a transformative episode for them. They simply spent the silver. It didn't lead to hyperinflation or even measurable inflation. The earliest supplies when they lapsed were not replaced immediately with new supplies - there was gap. Tellingly it didn't lead to collapse or hyperinflation and relatively speaking they were far more reliant on it than the Song are ever going to be.

In any case, the Song didn't have native sources of precious metals, they always had to import either via the northern route in the early part of the dynasty before changing over to the sea route in the latter part. Even when the seaborne route was interrupted, they didn't hyper-inflate or die. It may have added to the chaos but it wasn't the causative agent itself. The general principle is this, if A is given a large cash gift by B, you can be sure that B will spend it. Exactly the same applies to states a large windfall in precious metals will be spent and in the Song case that will more than likely all wind up bleeding out of the country via its considerable trade routes. Sure it might wend its way through the real economy a few times but it'll end up funding the Song addiction to imported aromatics, spices, pepper, tropical wood and the like.

Certainly true; the problem isn't the infusion of silver (the way it was with Spain), but rather its removal.

I don't see how temporary pillage is going to induce a long term dependence on American silver. I don't then see how that is going to translate into some sort of institutional dependence sufficient to cause the crimping of coins, the issuing of scrip or something else that could be construed into "Da' Sung are gonna' act stoopid lulz" despite a wealth of evidence that they were adept at mitigating monetary instability and were not given to 'bad' monetary policy on the whole.

Hyperinflation happened in China in the pre-modern era, actually, in the mid-Ming. (Not on the scale of Hungary or Germany or Argentina, of course, but certainly stunningly rapid inflation for the time, something like a thousandfold in one ruler's rule.) Actually, it happened because the silver supply declined after the Ming emperor at the time banned the mining of silver and continued to issue paper currency.

Check technical definition of hyperinflation not concerned with the arbitrary addition of an additional zero to an already demonetized economy. Actually, just ignore that I even took the notion seriously.

Which is basically exactly what would probably happen to the Song, except the silver supply would be stopped by piracy rather than a ban on mining.

Except that they already imported their silver and lo' and behold it wasn't obstructed by pirates.

However, any route would be vulnerable to piracy. We

The bustling ports in Southeast China weren't all that threatened by piracy in Song China. The trip from northern Java or south-eastern Sumatra to the Chinese coast was classed as the safest part of the spice route with regards to pirates.

We're not talking about the Song at their peak by the time the trans-Pacific route comes crashing down.

Which just makes it that much more silly doesn't it?

Yet a trans-oceanic route is far more vulnerable than a coastal one, and Ming trade was all coastal.

I think that has more to do with the absolutely ******** policies of certain Emperors of the Ming dynasty rather than anything else. They were pretty darn capable of protecting the sea routes when they weren't you know banning trade and forcing their own merchants into a life of piracy. The other pertinent question is who is going to intercept them midway in the Pacific? You might as well assume you have a coastal route for all intents and purposes.

Dachs appeared to be confused at to what were discussing, and his point, while completely true, is also totally irrelevant.

Its eminently applicable. Your making much the same assumptions as people who propagated that theory in the first place

 

[Verily]

Frankly, you're making the incredibly stupid argument that the Song were perfect economists and would never make a mistake. Which is ridiculous, and you should know. They were good, but nothing special--yet you're assuming the absolute best decisions made by every Song ruler for at least a couple of centuries in order to justify... what? That the Song dynasty wouldn't collapse? Of course, dynasties in China that were once effective have never declined and made bad decisions before.

Justify yourself.

 

[Masada]

Frankly, you're making the incredibly stupid argument that the Song were perfect economists and would never make a mistake.

Your arguments makes no sense - they assume economic results which are not in the least bit intuitive and require whole other steps which you seem to conveniently want to ignore. You don't jump from disruption to the silver supply to hyperinflation, you need at the very least structural dependence and some seriously bad monetary policy. Both of which are unlikely, even assuming that the sums of silver your talking about were all that large, which they weren't.

They were good, but nothing special--yet you're assuming the absolute best decisions made by every Song ruler for at least a couple of centuries in order to justify... what?

Where are you getting a couple of centuries? We know how long it took the Spanish to exhaust the supplies of readily accessible silver and it was measured in decades. Heck, North King can bloody well tell us how much they bled and from what sources, you'll find that the absolute majority came not from plunder and alluvial sources which the Song could actually use but from the big mines like Potosí.

That the Song dynasty wouldn't collapse?

Not by a short injection of silver which is mysteriously going to cause a complete economic collapse.

Of course, dynasties in China that were once effective have never declined and made bad decisions before.

I don't' believe that the one dynasty which is known for its cash economy, large regular imports of silver or its institutionally responsible economic management is going to make all bad decisions for decades in a row, no. That's assuming that your assumptions are in way feasible, which they're not.

Justify yourself.

I don't know. Elementary economics mistakes on your part?

 

[Disenfrancised]

After completing "When China Ruled The Sea" I have developed a rough ATL for early Chinese colonization. The time-line is as follows.

In addition to the other stuff pointed out your stoppages at Hawai'i are stupid.
a) It's off the major wind routes, a transpacific voyage with a Hawai'ian stop would be considerably harder and longer than going straight there. Simply put finding Hawai'i would be the result of an epic screw up and probably result in the death of the mission
b) Since the islands are arrayed east-west rather than the north-south of Guam and the Mariana's they are actually very hard to reliably find before accurate longitude positions can be determined.
c) Sending a massive fleet is actually a very bad idea for exploration, as sourcing fresh water and safe harbour for dozens of unmanuivable ships is very difficult, hence why the OTL Treasure Fleets only went where they knew there would be states they could trade with.

Secondly the Amerindian states would still face a considerable disease disadvanatage from the Europeans, as the lack of immunity was genetic as well as environmental (due to hundreds of generations without threat, and the genetic bottleneck of small tribes arriving in the Americas, Major Histamine Complex diversity is far lower than Eurasian populations. That isn't something thats going to solve itself without massive mixing/a thousand years of selection; rather than 80-90% die offs where the Europeans go, the Chinese 'strengthened' Amerindians will 'only' suffer >60% mortality, they're still going to get rolled over unfortunately).

 

[Cobalt Command]

Anyone given any thought to results of German unification in 1848?

 

[Dachs]

Anyone given any thought to results of German unification in 1848?

A great deal of thought on the subject has been recorded in these here threads, mostly German unification as a result of other events, such as the Sonderbund crisis going pear-shaped or Cavaignac seizing power in France and kicking off a new round of French Revolutionary Wars. What specifically were you thinking about?

 

[Cobalt Command]

A great deal of thought on the subject has been recorded in these here threads, mostly German unification as a result of other events, such as the Sonderbund crisis going pear-shaped or Cavaignac seizing power in France and kicking off a new round of French Revolutionary Wars. What specifically were you thinking about?

Well I just started reading up on the subject of German Unification prior to 1871 in an effort to try and cobble together an ATL. The first thing I came across was The March Revolution and the eventual offering to Frederick William IV the position of Kaiser of a unified Germany.

I've found some issues with the possibility of unification at this point in history, and still don't have an exact list for which German states were seriously considering giving the throne to the king of Prussia, but I thought to come here for ideas and help in fleshing out the idea.

 

[bombshoo]

Is there any alternate time lines with a viable and long lasting Muslim Sicily/Southern Italy in general around?

 

[Dachs]

There's Uberbulgaria, but Sicily isn't independent. It seems like it would be a little tricky to effect, though.

 

[Cobalt Command]

So, this is basically a response to my question from before (see post two previous). It's all centered around the idea that Prussia accepted the crown for The German Empire in 1848. I didn't know where to post this because the map isn't very different form the 1914 map in The Ultimate Map Thread, I don't have the skills to mod a NES yet, and this thread was buried down deep in the forum when I started. So here it goes.



1848- Prussia accepts offer of crown for the German Empire. Austria leaves the German Confederation and declines to take part in the newly formed German Empire.

1853-1856?: Seeing an oportunity gain more territory, The German Empire invades Russia durring the Crimean War. Austria is pushed into the war by German influence. At the end of the war parts of Russia comprised mainly of Poles are annexed by TGE. Austria is offered integration into TGE in a sort of Dual Monarchy, and they accept.

1857- The Alliance that fought against Russia in The Crimean War panicks at the size and possible power of the now unified central Europe. War is threatened, but a treaty is worked out before it can escalate into something world changing. Some points are shown here:
1.The German Empire will be reduced in size to that of The German Confederation.
2.The Independent States of Hungary and Poland will be created out of what is left of the remaining territory.
3.The Italian Peninsula will be unified comprising former Austrian lands (this is mainly Frances doing, for another strong nation on TGE's borders.)
Poland and Hungary are in theory independent nations, but a German King sits on the throne of Poland, and Hungary remains dependant due to ethnic unrest in the nation.

Since then- France and TGE got into their own little alliance which leads to a war between them and Italy. This concludes with territory from Italian Colonies being annexed by TGE, and parts of the former Piedmont being ceded to France.
Serbia expanded into Bosnia and had a quick war with Hungary(which TGE didn't see as important enough to get involved with), and Bulgaria got what is today Macedonia.
Namibia has become a prison colony (because Czechs and Slavs aren't welcomed in Germany Proper).
And while tension hasn't quite escalated to the point of war with Britain, war is inevitable between two alliances.
1: The German Empire, Hungary, Poland (For now)
2: The United Kingdom, Russia, Italy, Serbian Empire, Portugul (for now)

Here's the map:

Spoiler TL1848 :

Comments, Questions? I have a longer and more detailed timeline, but really need to run at this point.
And Dachs, I didn't didn't quite understand your comment in the other thread...

 

[Supermath]

It's a bit nitpicky, but could you please upload a full-sized map? It makes it much easier to examine.