Missed this post for a bit. I thought it was fairly obvious in the simplified version I gave. Equal prior probability, no known evidence for Jonnyboy, at least one piece of evidence more strongly supporting the Christian God than Jonnyboy, epsilon weight assigned to that evidence, result: higher probability for the Christian God.
Unfortunately, there is a problem of not knowing whether this evidence all has equal probability. It would be simple if it did!
However, let's suppose that it might be so. Let's suppose that the fact that there is a Christian religion suggests that the Christian God has probability to exist equal to epsilon. Thus, we have some kind of probability. Here is the problem: consider a God that doesn't interfere in human life (and thus will
likely not have a religion worshiping it). What can we say about the probability of such a God existing?
Nothing! Since this God wouldn't provide any evidence to suggest its existence (other than a lack of evidence), we have nothing to go on.
First of all, we can't assume that this probability is 0. If we could, then certainly epsilon is greater than zero and we can claim the Christian God is more likely. But the probability of this "invisible" God is x, while the probability of the Christian God is e>0 (no, not 271%

). Since we don't know what x is, we can't say that x>e or e>x.
That's where we're stuck. We can say some things about Gods that manifest themselves through religion (while ignoring Gods that manifest themselves through other ways apparently), that perhaps it shows that there is some probability of their existence. However, we can't say anything about Gods that don't manifest themselves through religion. Without having available the probabilities of each God, we can't say that the probability of a certain God is higher than all others.
That would be cheating and intellectually dishonest, but if you did manage to commit such a mass mangling of evidence, then yes, your invented God should be considered the most likely candidate to exist for a person living under the described circumstances with the expected information.
I believe that the story of the Bible suffered some sort of intellectual dishonesty along the way. Whether it's Jesus not actually having powers and people being impressionable, or the story being blown out of proportion for random or power-hungry reasons, I believe that this millenia old evidence should be taken with a grain of salt.
Simply this possibility (and the sheer antiquity of the data) should shatter the validity of this evidence as evidence of God.
If we can discard the infinite negative utility, then why do you have to believe in a God at all? Especially when I can show you better evidence for a universe without a God (though it would be similarly irrelevant as your scripture evidence). Regardless, suppose a scientist has a theory in an unknown subject. His theory has a 2% chance of being correct. Should that theory be claimed and believed, or should we say "we still don't know enough about this subject to form a reasonable conclusion"? After all, there aren't infinite consequences haunting us to make a decision, so that isn't necessary.
Let me try to put it another way. Suppose you investigate what's the likely colour of a helium atom (yes, I know, doesn't make sense, but let's suppose so). Suppose that after a lot of research, you get a 2% probability of it being red, and all the other colours as each lower probabilities comprising the other 98%. Should we believe that the colour is red? Would it not be more logical to accept that there isn't enough information to make a reasonable conclusion, and accept that for now we don't know for sure? I, for one, would have difficulties believing with any sort of conviction that the colour is red in such circumstances.
Assuming that belief in God has infinite (or extreme) consequences, I can give you my logical reasoning how that leads to complete lack of belief in any God (as well as lack of God), and thus agnosticism (though you've probably already seen it).
Assuming that belief in God has little to no relevance, there is no reason to believe in any God when the evidence is severely lacking. We can accept and live with the fact that we don't know.
The two above conclusions along with my assumption that if God existed, it would prefer that I respect it (which leads again to agnosticism, a demonstration I can give) lead to my system of belief, although the last only solidifies my beliefs.