Ask a Dutchman!

[metatron]

Hard to say. The last formation was one of the hardest there was. It will be difficult for several reasons.
First off the CDA probably will not be so inclined to ruling with the PVV again (although they're also quite unwilling with ruling with the PvdA), and apart from the CDA and VVD there aren't that many parties wanting to rule with the PVV. Another issue is that the VVD will probably not be that much inclined to wanting to rule with the SP.

The problem is that those to parties on the extreme flanks account for about a third of the seats with about 25 seats each.
Then there are the two biggest parties, the VVD and the PvdA which can both count on about 30 seats each.
The rest of the parties will probably have less than 15 seats (or there abouts).

There are 150 seats in parliament, so 76 seats is the slimmest majority.
(the current government, including the PVV-support had 76 seats, now 75 seats because one person left the PVV)

Which means that probably a three-party majority is out of the question or on a very slim majority and there'll probably need to be a fourth party.

The polls currently show:
VVD (liberal, right wing, focussed on economy) 33
SP (socialist, populist) 30
PvdA (social democratic) 24
PVV (Wilders, populist, conservative) 19
D66 (progressive, liberal, slightly leftwing) 15
CDA (christian democrats) 11
GroenLinks (green party) 5

So at least 3 parties are needed.
PvdA will never cooperate with PVV
D66 will probably not cooperate with PVV either
VVD and SP are very unlikely to cooperate
PVV has alienated the VVD and CDA in this move, so they're unlikely to cooperate

Ok, let me turn my naive-o-meter to the max! Let's suppose the above turns out to be the result of the actual election.
I somewhat get, why PvdA, VVD and CDA cannot work all three together all that well.
But i don't get why not two of them can govern with the help of two smaller parties.
Say... VVD + PvdA + D66 - that's 72 seats. Add either Greens or CU and it's a government.
In my naive view i can see how all 4 parties could make a case there that they are pushing forward some of their key values or objectives in such a government.

You are now going to tell me why that couldn't work as easy i think, right?

 

[anandus]

Ok, let me turn my naive-o-meter to the max! Let's suppose the above turns out to be the result of the actual election.
I somewhat get, why PvdA, VVD and CDA cannot work all three together all that well.
But i don't get why not two of them can govern with the help of two smaller parties.
Say... VVD + PvdA + D66 - that's 72 seats. Add either Greens or CU and it's a government.
In my naive view i can see how all 4 parties could make a case there that they are pushing forward some of their key values or objectives in such a government.

You are now going to tell me why that couldn't work as easy i think, right?

Well that is a definite possibility, it was one of the possibilites in the last coalition talks, but instead they went with the current, risky, minority government.

There have been two successful earlier coalitions with PvdA+VVD+D66, called 'Paars' (purple), a coalition of PvdA+VVD+D66+Greens is called 'Paars-Plus'.
The combination of 'Paars' and CU isn't a realistic one, as those three parties would probably be too liberal for a Christian party.
The last coalition that did not collapse before fullfilling it's term was in fact a purple coalition.

The combination of 'paars-plus' is definitely one of the expected possibilities (among other).

Although the VVD isn't really happy with that combination, because from their point of view it's relatively leftist, especially on the cost of car ownership and reforms in the house ownership market and the PvdA is also not very happy with that because it's relatively liberal from their point of view, especially concerning labour matters.

 

[Agent327]

The combination of 'Paars' and CU isn't a realistic one, as those three parties would probably be too liberal for a Christian party.

Hmmm, my memory may be off here, but I seem to recall the CU (Christian Union, one of the smaller Christian parties) was actually a member of a ´Purple´ government and its leader was the deputy PM.

 

[mayor]

I checked till the Government of Van Agt and the CU has only been part of the Government once, since then. Balkenende IV, which I wouldn't call 'Purple'

 

[classical_hero]

How do you feel about Australia? I am asking this since you guys nearly colonised this country had you decided to take any interest in it, but you didn't since at the time you were more interested in Spices, which Australia did not have at the time. I know that our side of the country was first discovered by yo guys and yet no permanent colony was formed. In fact Tasmania was once known as Van Diemen's land and the eventual name is after a Dutch explorer, Abel Tasman, so there is lots of history between early Australia and Holland.

 

[anandus]

I checked till the Government of Van Agt and the CU has only been part of the Government once, since then. Balkenende IV, which I wouldn't call 'Purple'

Indeed.

How do you feel about Australia?

Actually there are some close ties between the Netherlands and Australia.

Not so much because of the very old Tasman history, moreover after the second world war.
Before the second world war the ties consisted mostly because of trade between the Dutch Indies and Australia.

But when Japan invaded the Dutch Indies the government of the Dutch Indies and many Dutch nationals living in the Dutch Indies fled to Australia. The eastern Dutch troops, navy and airforce was stationed in Australia and Tuch and Australian troops fought side by side against the Japanese.
But after the second world war relations became worse for a while (between 1945 and 1949) as Australia (and about the rest of the world ) acknowledged the independence of the Indonesia (former Dutch Indies).

After the Netherlands in 1949 also acknowledged independence relations became better again.
In the fifties and sixties of last century Australia was a popular emigration destination. Up to two hundred thousand people emigrated from the Netherlands to Australia.

So since 1949 there have been good ties between the Netherlands and Australia.
Also quite some people have family in Australia (because of the emigration).

Economy-wise the Netherlands is, after the US, the UK and Japan the biggest foreign investor in Australia.

And next to all that Australia is a very popular holiday destination, especially among young people Australia is famous as a backpacking destination.

The Dutch have a very positive opinion about Australia and Australians.

TV-wise in the 80's and 90's Neighbours was very popular here, and in this century Steve Irwin was very, very popular (and still is).
Sport-wise Australians are quite unknown lately, apart from Ian Thrope, being the main rival of Dutch swimmer Pieter van den Hoogenband in several tournamaents in the last 10 years (or so?).

The Dutch do not know much about Australian politics. We know Gillard is the prime minister, but that's about it.
The most news we get about Australia is the floodings, maybe a shark- or croc-attack and that's about it.
Oh, and the fireworks on new year in Sydney

Any (other) specific question about our views of Australians?

 

[Agent327]

I guess that´s about right.

I checked till the Government of Van Agt and the CU has only been part of the Government once, since then. Balkenende IV, which I wouldn't call 'Purple'

No, I guess not. That must be why I remember the CU as being the only decent party in it.

How do you feel about Australia? I am asking this since you guys nearly colonised this country had you decided to take any interest in it, but you didn't since at the time you were more interested in Spices, which Australia did not have at the time. I know that our side of the country was first discovered by yo guys and yet no permanent colony was formed. In fact Tasmania was once known as Van Diemen's land and the eventual name is after a Dutch explorer, Abel Tasman, so there is lots of history between early Australia and Holland.

The Dutch historically being mainly interested in trade, I wouldn´t say we ´nearly´ colonized it, although a fair size of the coast was mapped out by ´the Dutch´.(There´s also Arnhem Land in the northeast, I seme to recall)

As a personal matter I had an uncle emigrate there (and remigrate later), which, as I understand it, isn´t that uncommon (it was stimulated in the 1950s by the government, resulting in a sizeable emigration to Australia, Canada and other countries).

TV-wise in the 80's and 90's Neighbours was very popular here, and in this century Steve Irwin was very, very popular (and still is).

I remember the series aired about him and his wife. Very enthusiastic guy he was.

The Dutch do not know much about Australian politics. We know Gillard is the prime minister, but that's about it.[/QUOTE]

And I didn´t even know that...

 

[mayor]

The Dutch have a very positive opinion about Australia and Australians.

Except about your field hockey team. They are very annoying... beating us on a regular basis and all

TV-wise in the 80's and 90's Neighbours was very popular here, and in this century Steve Irwin was very, very popular (and still is).

Isn't Skippy the Bushkangaroo also from Australia?

Sport-wise Australians are quite unknown lately, apart from Ian Thrope, being the main rival of Dutch swimmer Pieter van den Hoogenband in several tournamaents in the last 10 years (or so?).

And the field hockeyers for above stated reason

The Dutch do not know much about Australian politics. We know Gillard is the prime minister, but that's about it.

We do?

The most news we get about Australia is the floodings, maybe a shark- or croc-attack and that's about it.
Oh, and the fireworks on new year in Sydney

Definitely the fireworks.


Also: Most Dutch people will tell you that the capital of Australia is Sydney or maybe Melbourne. Most people don't know/forget it is Canberra

 

[anandus]

Hahaha, forgot about Skippy! You're right

And I don't know that much about hockey, so could be you're right there as well

 

[Tahuti]

How do you feel about Australia? I am asking this since you guys nearly colonised this country had you decided to take any interest in it, but you didn't since at the time you were more interested in Spices, which Australia did not have at the time.

I know this was partially at the advice of Abel Tasman himself who cited "complete inhospitability of its savage natives" as the reason not to have Australia colonised by the Dutch East-India trade company (as the Dutch republic itself technically never held colonies).

 

[anandus]

Oh, about Australia and tv:
What is also populair here in the Netherlands at the moment is Australian Masterchef.
Don't know why.

==============================

Anyone has any more questions about politics or anything else?

 

[classical_hero]

I was wondering when hockey would be brought up.

One thing we seem to have an thing for is having Dutch Coaches. Two of the past three football head coaches have been Dutch, with Guus Hiddink and Pim Verbeek. Our current head coach is German.

 

[mayor]

I was wondering when hockey would be brought up.

I just argue that we don't have a men's team (even thought they are ranked 3th of the world) but just a women's team (ranking 1st)

wait.. what was that? Where ranks the Australian women's team? ooohh, that's right, 7th!

And I'll take solace in the fact that we, still, have more world cup appearances and more world cup titles

One thing we seem to have an thing for is having Dutch Coaches. Two of the past three football head coaches have been Dutch, with Guus Hiddink and Pim Verbeek. Our current head coach is German.

I have been told, by my father, that our, football, coaching programs are the best of the world, which is why you'll find Dutchmen, coaching all over the world

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I always claim that in the World Championship Coaching we'd win fer sure.

 

[Jan H]

So in 7 weeks, it was impossible to reach an agreement with 3 parties (VVD, CDA, PVV) about the 12 billions of savings , and now they have reached a deal with six parties (VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL, SGP) in only TWO DAYS? Care to explain? ;-)

 

[mayor]

So in 7 weeks, it was impossible to reach an agreement with 3 parties (VVD, CDA, PVV) about the 12 billions of savings , and now they have reached a deal with six parties (VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL, SGP) in only TWO DAYS? Care to explain? ;-)

Easy answer: We're awesome, except for Wilders.

Bit smarter answer: In those 7 weeks a plan was made, however the PVV decided that they didn't want to be part of it when the plan was done. This agreement is just that plan, with some modification I think.


Also nice to know, it took the Youth Parties of the VVD, CDA, D66 en CU just 3 weeks to reach an agreement.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

So in 7 weeks, it was impossible to reach an agreement with 3 parties (VVD, CDA, PVV) about the 12 billions of savings , and now they have reached a deal with six parties (VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL, SGP) in only TWO DAYS? Care to explain? ;-)

Sure. It wasn't impossible in those 7 weeks. It's just that Wilders is a populist and 12 billion of savings aren't popular. Necessity weighs a lot less for a populist than popularity. Of course he could have concluded that in the first few weeks, but think of all the publicity he wouldn't have gotten.

It looks like the decision came back to bite him in the ass, but that's just for now. In 4 or 5 month when we'll have our favourite national past-time: another election who knows what the voter remembers of this.

I do love the show of strength from a multi-party system in this one when politicians finally do something they're supposed to be doing. for reaching such a swift agreement.

 

[mayor]

I do love the show of strength from a multi-party system in this one when politicians finally do something they're supposed to be doing. for reaching such a swift agreement.

indeed.


I do have one question myself concerning the cuts. This whole time they said that the cutbacks should be at least 18 billion to reach the 3% Government budget deficit. However, all of a sudden budget cuts of "merely" 11.2 billion are enough.. What has changed?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I dunno.

Maybe it's 11.2 additional cuts on top of the 8 which was already in effect?

 

[anandus]

indeed.


I do have one question myself concerning the cuts. This whole time they said that the cutbacks should be at least 18 billion to reach the 3% Government budget deficit. However, all of a sudden budget cuts of "merely" 11.2 billion are enough.. What has changed?

One thing is the effect cuts have on the economy.
If cuts hurt the economy, then there will be less income for the state.

A good example are higher taxes. Yes, higher taxes result in more income for the state, but at the same time people can buy less, shops can sell less, etc.
So in the end the added income isn't the few percent of extra taxes but a lot less than that.

For instance, of the failed deal between VVD+CDA+PVV there was a total of 14 billion in cuts, but because it'd hurt the economy there'd be 8 billion less income, therefore the net cuts are actually only 6 billion(!)