CFC Pick'em 2016-2017

[Sommerswerd]

So: do you want to keep going through the playoffs? And if so, do you want me to reset the scores and just do a "playoffs pick-em"

This is actually what we always do in a family pick'em that I do with my siblings and cousins.

In any case, I obviously favor whatever option is the most self-serving from my own perspective , but continuing through the playoff would be fun.

 

[Light Cleric]

I'd be up for a playoff pick-em.

Doing a fresh start would probably be good because we could get some new players who show up during playoff time, and with only 11 games counting the Super Bowl it's not particularly likely to change the results without something gimmicky like weighting the games.

 

[KMRblue1027]

I'm up for whatever. I'll just try and get my picks on time, about to get really busy.

Sunday, 1/1
Carolina @ Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay by 5.5 TB doesn't cover
Houston @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3 Tenn covers
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 5.5 Pittsburgh covers
Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Cincinnati by 2.5 Baltimore outright
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis, Indianapolis by 4.5 Jacksonville outright
New England @ Miami, New England by 9.5 NE doesn't cover
Chicago @ Minnesota, Minnesota by 5 Chicago outright (hopeless optimism here)
Dallas @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 4 Philly covers
Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets, Buffalo by 3.5 Jets outright
Arizona @ Los Angeles, Arizona by 6 Arizona covers
Oakland @ Denver, Denver by 1.5 Denver covers
Kansas City @ San Diego, Kansas City by 5.5 KC covers
New Orleans @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 6.5 Atlanta covers
N.Y. Giants @ Washington, Washington by 8 Washington doesn't cover
Seattle @ San Francisco, Seattle by 9.5 Seattle doesn't cover
Green Bay @ Detroit, Green Bay by 3.5 GB covers

 

[vivalamexico]

Carolina outright
Houston outright
Pittsburgh covers
Cincinnati covers
Jacksonville outright
NE covers
Chicago outright
Philadelphia covers
Buffalo covers
Arizona covers
Denver covers
SD outright
Atlanta dnc
Washington dnc
Seattle covers
Detroit outright

 

[Berzerker]

TB dnc
TEN covers
PITT covers
BALT wins
INDY covers
NE dnc
MIN covers
PHIL dnc
BUFF covers
AZ covers
DEN covers
KC dnc
ATL covers
WASH dnc
SEA dnc
GB covers

 

[Light Cleric]

Carolina @ Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay by 5.5 Tampa Bay covers
Houston @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3 Tenn covers
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 5.5 Pittsburgh covers
Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Cincinnati by 2.5 Baltimore wins
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis, Indianapolis by 4.5 Indy covers
New England @ Miami, New England by 9.5 NE doesn't cover
Chicago @ Minnesota, Minnesota by 5 Minnesota covers
Dallas @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 4 Philly covers
Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets, Buffalo by 3.5 Buffalo covers
Arizona @ Los Angeles, Arizona by 6 Arizona covers
Oakland @ Denver, Denver by 1.5 Oakland wins
Kansas City @ San Diego, Kansas City by 5.5 KC covers
New Orleans @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 6.5 New Orleans wins
N.Y. Giants @ Washington, Washington by 8 Giants win
Seattle @ San Francisco, Seattle by 9.5 Seattle covers
Green Bay @ Detroit, Green Bay by 3.5 Green Bay covers

 

[schlaufuchs]

TB cov
TEN cov
PIT cov
BAL win
IND cov
NE cov
MIN cov
DAL win
BUF cov
ARI dnc
OAK win
KC cov
ATL cov
WAS dnc
SEA cov
GB cov

 

[schlaufuchs]

Carolina @ Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay by 5.5
Bucs cover
Houston @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3
Texans win
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 5.5
Steelers cover... big time.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Cincinnati by 2.5
Ravens win
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis, Indianapolis by 4.5
Colts cover
New England @ Miami, New England by 9.5
Patriots cover
Chicago @ Minnesota, Minnesota by 5
Vikings cover
Dallas @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 4
Cowboys win
Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets, Buffalo by 3.5
Bills cover
Arizona @ Los Angeles, Arizona by 6
Cardinals cover
Oakland @ Denver, Denver by 1.5
Raiders win
Kansas City @ San Diego, Kansas City by 5.5
Chiefs cover
New Orleans @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 6.5
Saints win. Even if I am only making that prediction based on my Seahawk emotions so Seattle can get a first round bye.
N.Y. Giants @ Washington, Washington by 8
Giants win
Seattle @ San Francisco, Seattle by 9.5
Seahawks cover
Green Bay @ Detroit, Green Bay by 3.5
Lions win

 

[Sommerswerd]

Week 17 Spreads

Sunday, 1/1
Carolina @ Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay by 5.5 - Favourite does not cover
Houston @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3 - Favourite Covers
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 5.5 - Favourite Covers
Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Cincinnati by 2.5- Dog wins outright
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis, Indianapolis by 4.5 - Favourite Covers
New England @ Miami, New England by 9.5 - Favourite Covers
Chicago @ Minnesota, Minnesota by 5 - Favourite Covers
Dallas @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 4 Dog wins Outright
Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets, Buffalo by 3.5 - Favourite Covers
Arizona @ Los Angeles, Arizona by 6 - Favourite Covers
Oakland @ Denver, Denver by 1.5 Dog wins Outright
Kansas City @ San Diego, Kansas City by 5.5 - Favourite Covers
New Orleans @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 6.5 - Favourite does not cover
N.Y. Giants @ Washington, Washington by 8 - Favourite does not cover
Seattle @ San Francisco, Seattle by 9.5- Dog wins outright
Green Bay @ Detroit, Green Bay by 3.5 - Dog wins Outright

 

[schlaufuchs]

Ok, sorry about the delay. We're going to go with the score reset, and I'll be along with the end-of-season update a bit later.

So:

Playoffs Week 1 Spread

Saturday, 1/7
Oakland @ Houston, Houston by 4
Detroit @ Seattle, Seattle by 8

Sunday, 1/8
Miami @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 10.5
N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 5

 

[KMRblue1027]

Saturday, 1/7
Oakland @ Houston, Houston by 4 Houston Covers
Detroit @ Seattle, Seattle by 8 Seattle covers

Sunday, 1/8
Miami @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 10.5 Pittsburgh doesn't cover
N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 5 GB covers

 

[schlaufuchs]

Oakland @ Houston, Houston by 4
Texans cover
Detroit @ Seattle, Seattle by 8
Seahawks don't cover
Sunday, 1/8
Miami @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 10.5
Steelers cover
N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 5
Giants win

 

[Sommerswerd]

Playoffs Week 1 Spread

Saturday, 1/7
Oakland @ Houston, Houston by 4 -Dog wins outright
Detroit @ Seattle, Seattle by 8 - Favourite does not Cover

Sunday, 1/8
Miami @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 10.5 - Favourite Covers
N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 5 - Dog wins Outright

 

[Light Cleric]

Houston covers
Seattle covers

Pittsburgh doesn't cover
Giants win

 

[schlaufuchs]

HOU cov
SEA dnc
PIT dnc
GB cov

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Ok, sorry about the delay. We're going to go with the score reset, and I'll be along with the end-of-season update a bit later.

So:

Playoffs Week 1 Spread

Saturday, 1/7
Oakland @ Houston, Houston by 4
Detroit @ Seattle, Seattle by 8

Sunday, 1/8
Miami @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 10.5
N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 5

Texans cover
Squawks don't cover

Steelers cover
Giants win

 

[schlaufuchs]

Year-End Update

Ok, so I finally got through tabulating the final scores and whatnot, but before we crack open the Week 17 results and declare a winner for the season, let's take a look at some other stats and hand out some awards!

So first, just as I did last year, let's take a look at some homer/sharps stats. It's a bit of a weird one, but basically what I've done is I've tabulated the pick-rate for each player for each team. So for example I picked Arizona 11 times, out of 249 total picks I made over the course of the season, which would result in a pick rate of 4.4%. I did this, rather than, say, out of 16 opportunities to make a pick because not everybody picked every week, so my numbers would be skewed, and doing it this way, while less pretty, effectively accomplishes the same job. Then I compared the difference of that pick rate to the average pick rate across all players - so Arizona was picked 82 times total out of 2199 total picks made, for a rate of 3.7% - and the team for which you have the highest positive difference is your "homer team". That is to say, the team you pick the most often against how often it is picked by the community. This is to help weed out someone who is just picking a good team consistently. For example Pittsburgh was the most-picked team this year, with an average of 12.57/16 picks among the guys who participated all 17 weeks, so for someone to pick Pittsburgh a lot would be unsurprising. But for someone to pick Pittsburgh all 16 weeks, that would be a bit more surprising. Obviously this methodology is going to mostly highlight people who consistently picked bad teams (or at least teams people perceived as bad) rather than someone who just picked the same good team week-in, and week-out, and as such, if your pet team was good, it might not necessarily get highlighted, but that's the price you have to pay. Sharps in the table below is the opposite of homer. It's the team you picked at the most negative difference from the average. Basically it's a record of a team the community was high on that you most consistently picked against. To the list!

*NOTE*: edit to NK's stats, which were thrown off because North King contains "no" in it, which was messing with how I was pulling the data: his Homer team was actually Houston.

The Golden Homer this year, of course goes to Sommerswerd, who picked his own San Francisco to win all 16 weeks, with a difference of .045 compared to the league pick rate. Special recognition also goes to Timsup2nothin and North King who picked New Orleans at very high rates. NK's only not coming away with this award because, although his pick rate difference is actually higher than Sommer's (at .056) this is primarily because he only participated in 3 weeks, which was skewing the results. Tim also doggedly stuck by the Saints, with a pick rate difference of .033. Which is the 2nd highest among players who participated in more than 8 weeks.

Another fun fact that's not made clear in the statistics: viva picked Philadelphia to win in 16/16 weeks, and New England to win in 15/16. I picked Oakland to win in all 16 weeks as well.

The Silver Tack award (working title for the opposite of the Golden Homer) goes to vivalamexico who picked Oakland at a -.036 difference throughout the year. Despite their remarkable and consistent success, viva seemed dead set on popping that hype train balloon. Honorable mention goes to Owen Glyndwr who picked New Orleans at a -.033 difference, and madviking who also picked Oakland at a -.024 difference.

Below are statistics for each participant: percentage of total picks for each type of pick: cover, dnc, and win.

Something worth noting here: viva was taking Outright wins at a 42% rate.

Ok then, so without further ado, here is your

Week 17 Update

Spoiler Excel sheet for picks :

Which brings us to the final standings:

It was a really tight final week, with Light Cleric missing 1st place outright by just one point. It was a ton of fun, and I hope you guys all enjoyed it! I'm going to continue posting spreads for the playoffs, so feel free to join in and play along if you want. Playoffs Week 1 Update and Week 2 spreads will shortly follow this update.

So the final thing I have to do is post the updated career statistics, which I have done below:

First the list of winners in all three years, with their records and PPWs:

Next we have Career Statistics for all participants to-date:

And finally here are the single-season records (spoiler alert: no change from last year)

 

[Light Cleric]

If I had remembered to pick that Jets/Dolphins Saturday game I would have won

#FIREGOODELL

(just kidding Owen missed 5 more games than I did anyway and maybe even that one)

Seriously though this was really a lot of fun, thanks a ton for running it, Owen. I know you were super busy with real life but we all appreciate you taking the time to run it.

Looking forward to next season!

 

[KMRblue1027]

Wow I finished really strong. I was so far behind at week like 10 or so. You guys had way too much confidence in Carolina BTW.

 

[schlaufuchs]

Playoffs Week 2 Spreads

Saturday, 1/14
Seattle @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 4.5
Houston @ New England, New England by 15

Sunday, 1/15
Green Bay @ Dallas, Dallas by 4.5
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City, Kansas City by 1.5