China invasion of Taiwan POLL!

[luiz]

Have you ever stop to ask yourself how were the rebels able to take over a land such as China? They didn't come in with a hugh force and overran the territory. They reason they won was because they had the support of the people, which the KMT didn't. A rebel group wouldn't be able to win if the KMT was a legitimate "Democracy" as some claim.

Mao won because he had the support of more people, not the people.

Furthermore there are numerous exemples in history where a relatively small number of rebels manage to take power, like in Cuba. The KMT, like the Batista government, was unpopular, what does NOT mean that the majority of the people supported the rebels.

And if you care so much about the will of the people, you might as well ask the people of Taiwan how they feel about it. Don't be a hypocrite.

 

[Pointlessness]

"Great Leap Forward"
"Cultural Revolution"
"Political Prisioners"
"No Freedom of Press"
"Tianamen Square"
"No free elctions"

Yea, doesn't sound like a tyranny to me

The China of today is different from the China of the Cultural Revolution and even Tianamen Square such, due to economic growth. China used to be communist, too. Go figure.

 

[romelus]

Mao won because he had the support of more people, not the people.

majority is the people. or are you doubting even democracy?

Furthermore there are numerous exemples in history where a relatively small number of rebels manage to take power, like in Cuba. The KMT, like the Batista government, was unpopular, what does NOT mean that the majority of the people supported the rebels.

actually, the majority of the people did support the communists.

And if you care so much about the will of the people, you might as well ask the people of Taiwan how they feel about it. Don't be a hypocrite.

most people in taiwan support the status quo, not formal independece

 

[Evertonian]

Mao won because he had the support of more people, not the people.

Furthermore there are numerous exemples in history where a relatively small number of rebels manage to take power, like in Cuba. The KMT, like the Batista government, was unpopular, what does NOT mean that the majority of the people supported the rebels.

And if you care so much about the will of the people, you might as well ask the people of Taiwan how they feel about it. Don't be a hypocrite.

Survey evidence suggests the people of Taiwan are against a declaration of independence from the mainland.

Great Leap Forward"
"Cultural Revolution"
"Political Prisioners"
"No Freedom of Press"
"Tianamen Square"
"No free elctions

The present Chinese government has been quite open in saying that in Mao's era they got things wrong. Tiananmen square was barbaric, I wish it had never happened, but China is not the only country in the world who's government has shot protesters. Do you think all government's that shoot protesters are by definition tyrannys? Leaves a very small number who aren't.

On Freedom of the Press, the press is freer than in a lot of places, and is getting better. Things are written now which would've been unthinkable a decade ago.

It's true there aren't free elections in the multi-party western sense. However the government is pretty representative of the population, and tends to stay in touch with public opinion and what's concerning people. And people are broadly supportive of the Government.

 

[IglooDame]

Survey evidence suggests the people of Taiwan are against a declaration of independence from the mainland.

Does the survey question take into account the PRC's apparent intention to invade Taiwan if they declare independence? The difference between "Are you for or against a declaration of independence from the PRC and it's resulting military consequences" and "Are you for or against a declaration of independence from the PRC if you were certain that the PRC would not react militarily" is probably quite great.

 

[Enkidu Warrior]

Does the survey question take into account the PRC's apparent intention to invade Taiwan if they declare independence? The difference between "Are you for or against a declaration of independence from the PRC and it's resulting military consequences" and "Are you for or against a declaration of independence from the PRC if you were certain that the PRC would not react militarily" is probably quite great.

For a long time the surveys I've come across that a majority favour an "ambiguous" relationship with China. They do feel Chinese, they just don't want direct rule from Beijing. China is also happy with this arrangement since's Taiwan's economy is a huge boost to China, but they are absolutely adamant that Taiwan will never declare formal independance (probably fueled by pride), hence the aggressive rhetoric.

It's important to point out that the incoming Chinese leadership favours a more conciliatory approach, while the still powerful old guard favours a more hardline approach. I imiagine that in coming years China will ramp down the aggressive posturing, though it will never tolerate formal independance. As long as there is no formal arrangement made all sides will be privately happy, though unfortunately this leaves China with the constant worry that Taiwan will one day move towards formal independance.

 

[test_specimen]

Sending troops from Europe to defend Taiwan against China would be a complete waste of lives. We should work politically against any scenario like this, not militarily.

 

[MarineCorps]

GerrardCapashen made a critical observation. It would take years for China to build up the necessary transport ships to ferry their more numerous built also more ill-equipped troops to Taiwan. It would be impossible to conceal such a buildup -- reconnaissance has improved somewhat since 1944

Not really. they have 117 ships. Of the ships I was able to get data on(35) I found out those ships would be able to hold 7900 troops total. Now basing the following on the ship that could hold the leaset amount of troops I found (200 troops.) so 200*117=23,400. Now thats not 100% on target I know but still.

Some other data:

China:
15,000 amphibious troops
three airborne divisions
3,300 combat aircraft
60 warships [DD, FF]
~300 landing craft

Taiwan:
490 fighter aircraft
220,000-troops
40 warships [DD, FF]

I would say China would be stupid to invade.

 

[luiz]

majority is the people. or are you doubting even democracy?

Learn to read dude
He had the support of more people then the KMT, but not of the majority of the people. Jesus, even a chimp can understand what I was trying to say.

actually, the majority of the people did support the communists.

Says who?
If they are confident of their popularity then maybe they should allow free elections, shouldn't they?

most people in taiwan support the status quo, not formal independece

Because they are afraid of war.
It's a fact that most people of Taiwai do NOT want to be one with China. Get over it and admitt you couldn't care less.

 

[luiz]

Survey evidence suggests the people of Taiwan are against a declaration of independence from the mainland.

Only because they are afraid of a war.
Surveys also show that they're against union.

The present Chinese government has been quite open in saying that in Mao's era they got things wrong. Tiananmen square was barbaric, I wish it had never happened, but China is not the only country in the world who's government has shot protesters. Do you think all government's that shoot protesters are by definition tyrannys? Leaves a very small number who aren't.

On Freedom of the Press, the press is freer than in a lot of places, and is getting better. Things are written now which would've been unthinkable a decade ago.

It's true there aren't free elections in the multi-party western sense. However the government is pretty representative of the population, and tends to stay in touch with public opinion and what's concerning people. And people are broadly supportive of the Government.

If the present govt. admitts that Mao was an inhuman monster, then why are those giant and ridiculous Mao posters still in every square of China?

And did you ignore the link I provided about Freedom of Press? It's only freer then NK and is LESS free that dictatorships such as Iran and Turkmenistan. It has the second worst position in the world, and is very close to the worst.

The govt. is not representative at all. The rural majority of China has no say whatsoever in the National policies.

The single fact that only one party is allowed makes me sick.

Edit: Here's the link about Freedom of Press in the world. Look how wonderful China is http://www.rsf.fr/article.php3?id_article=4116

 

[nihilistic]

most people in taiwan support the status quo, not formal independece

Because they are afraid of war.
It's a fact that most people of Taiwai do NOT want to be one with China. Get over it and admitt you couldn't care less.[/QUOTE]

Everybody is afraid of war, but most Taiwanese still consider themselves to be Chinese. Seriously, have you been to China, or have you only seen the movies depicting China?

 

[Vietcong]

no, i wholdnt. but i dont think china will invade taiwan, if it was going to, it probly whold have done so in 1950-51.

 

[nihilistic]

no, i wholdnt. but i dont think china will invade taiwan, if it was going to, it probly whold have done so in 1950-51.

Actually, if their mentality towards Taiwan was one that favored military solutions or one of "waiting and itching to attack", they would have done so last year during the Iraq campaign.

 

[luiz]

Everybody is afraid of war, but most Taiwanese still consider themselves to be Chinese. Seriously, have you been to China, or have you only seen the movies depicting China?

The only thing that matter is that all surveys show that they don not accept the chinese intentions. If you respect democracy, respect that.

BTW, the "you have never been to X" is the CHEAPEST possible argument, used by people who know that they are wrong.
Only people who have been to Iraq can give an opinion about the situation there, right?

I owe no explanation to you, but FTI I know plenty of chinese immigrants. Rio has one of the largest immigrant chinese communities in Latin America.

 

[Evertonian]

@luiz
I take the point on press freedom

 

[test_specimen]

The Taiwanese I know all think they are better off outside of mainland China. So far China has had a rather mature stance towards Taiwan (I bet some other nations with the same military power would not have hesitated to attack at the first promising moment.) However the situation is not nice for Taiwan either.

Some friends of mine had a summer job in China and told me, that propaganda is getting to the majority of people like MTV and tap water to us. They lived in families that told them the "truth" about Tibet (though I'm not for a reinstallation of a god-emperor there it seemed a bit overblown), as well as about the misled province of Taiwan. Fortunately the current leaders have a more pragmatic view and fortunately the Taiwanese are armed.

 

[10Seven]

Taiwan is independant and has been independant for decades. At this stage, this issue is simple posturing.

Both Mainland and Taiwan are UN and internationally recognised - though 'Taiwan' was recognised prior to retreating to the island.

Chinese bank credit is extremely high - as Chinese lending to the USA is the biggest aid to keeping interest rates low, and the economy in growth despite massive military spending.

The 'majority' of people during the Chinese civil war supported no-one at all - but were far more pragmatic, in passivly supporting the ascendant power.

China of today features almost no difference to ten years ago - media control and social manipulation is still extreme, the country remains Communist, with a few small Special Economic Zones. Communication outside is severely restricted, and that to very few people.

 

[luiz]

Taiwan is independant and has been independant for decades. At this stage, this issue is simple posturing.

Both Mainland and Taiwan are UN and internationally recognised - though 'Taiwan' was recognised prior to retreating to the island.

Chinese bank credit is extremely high - as Chinese lending to the USA is the biggest aid to keeping interest rates low, and the economy in growth despite massive military spending.

The 'majority' of people during the Chinese civil war supported no-one at all - but were far more pragmatic, in passivly supporting the ascendant power.

China of today features almost no difference to ten years ago - media control and social manipulation is still extreme, the country remains Communist, with a few small Special Economic Zones. Communication outside is severely restricted, and that to very few people.

Good post!
Some people here are completely illuded with the nature of the chinese regime.

 

[alex994]

Luiz, u don't even know how it is there. You've probably never even face starvation or torture, massacres and etc. Compared to the KMT regime, the PRC is a lot more beneficial to the ppl of China, and they're doing better as well...

 

[eyrei]

As an amusing sidenote, I know that up until recently, the Taiwanese government had positions supposedly controlling each province of mainland China. They may have dissolved them by now, or they may not have. For a long time, most Taiwanese favored a counterattack to take back the mainland. Some probably still do. Anyway, my point is that Taiwan isn't some innocent little abused child, and China completely in the wrong here. That civil war was not that long ago...for some on both sides, it probably has not ended...