Climate Change Anecdotes

[Zardnaar]

So what if anything have you noticed with climte change in your lifetime?

A few things.here in the deep South if NZ.

1. The glaciers are melting. Visible in the last 20 years.

2. When bushfires are bad in Australia you can smell it on the east coast of NZ.

3. Harsh winters are a thing of the past. It's been 15 odd years since we"ve had a hard winter eg freezing over 4:30 pm in the afternoon.

4. On 31st May we had 22 degrees day. Last day of autumn. Tonight very mild t-shirt and sweatshirt type weather. In winter.

So yeah very mild winters and those white out days of frost in 80's and 90's are long gone with frosts being mild and rare with the occasional hard frost.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

We barely get a single frost, let alone snow and winter here in the south of England. Its sending gardens a bit loopy as annual flowers are not killed off, and neither are the bugs

 

[amadeus]

I’m not worried about that ice, it always melts at a glacial pace.

 

[Zardnaar]

We barely get a single frost, let alone snow and winter here in the south of England. Its sending gardens a bit loopy as annual flowers are not killed off, and neither are the bugs

I checked it out I think South England is similar to the deep south here temperature wise.

 

[GenMarshall]

We barely get a single frost, let alone snow and winter here in the south of England. Its sending gardens a bit loopy as annual flowers are not killed off, and neither are the bugs

I find that more of a rave. Then again I only hate snow because I have to clean it off my car and drive in it.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

I find that more of a rave. Then again I only hate snow because I have to clean it off my car and drive in it.

I'd love to get that much snow occasionally!

 

[PhroX]

I work in the water industry, and these days, if we're looking at designing anything that will be impacted by rain (e.g. flood defences on a river), we pretty much by default slap a 30% increase over historical rainfall values to account for climate change.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Where in the world are you? I imagine just as many areas are trying to manage 30% decreases.

 

[PhroX]

Britain.

And to clarify, it's not that we're going to get 30% more rainfall in total. From what I remember, most predictions from large models put the annual rainfall increase in this country somewhere between 0-10% over the next 50-odd years. But rainfall will be more concentrated in fewer, larger events, and those are the events we have to consider when designing things like sewers and flood protection. And from what I know, a similar pattern is expected elsewhere in the world - even in places that are likely to become drier overall, rainfall in the big storm events are at best expected to remain at a similar magnitude, and often actually increase.

 

[EgonSpengler]

New York Times, 7 June 2022 - "As the Great Salt Lake Dries Up, Utah Faces An ‘Environmental Nuclear Bomb’"

Last summer, the water level in the Great Salt Lake reached its lowest point on record, and it’s likely to fall further this year. The lake’s surface area, which covered about 3,300 square miles in the late 1980s, has since shrunk to less than 1,000, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The salt content in the part of the lake closest to Salt Lake City used to fluctuate between 9 percent and 12 percent, according to Bonnie Baxter, a biology professor at Westminster College. But as the water in the lake drops, its salt content has increased. If it reaches 17 percent — something Dr. Baxter says will happen this summer — the algae in the water will struggle, threatening the brine shrimp that consume it.

While the ecosystem hasn’t collapsed yet, Dr. Baxter said, “we’re at the precipice. It’s terrifying.”

The long term risks are even worse. One morning in March, Kevin Perry, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah, walked out onto land that used to be underwater. He picked at the earth, the color of dried mud, like a beach whose tide went out and never came back.

The soil contains arsenic, antimony, copper, zirconium and other dangerous heavy metals, much of it residue from mining activity in the region. Most of the exposed soil is still protected by a hard crust. But as wind erodes the crust over time, those contaminants become airborne.

 

[Birdjaguar]

^^^ That whole article was really good. SLC may well be in serious trouble

 

[EgonSpengler]

Britain.

And to clarify, it's not that we're going to get 30% more rainfall in total. From what I remember, most predictions from large models put the annual rainfall increase in this country somewhere between 0-10% over the next 50-odd years. But rainfall will be more concentrated in fewer, larger events, and those are the events we have to consider when designing things like sewers and flood protection. And from what I know, a similar pattern is expected elsewhere in the world - even in places that are likely to become drier overall, rainfall in the big storm events are at best expected to remain at a similar magnitude, and often actually increase.

Are there any models in the UK that account for the further decline (or, worst case, complete collapse) of the warm currents in the Atlantic (Wikipedia: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)? iirc, there's a fear that enough of the Northern glaciers could melt that the warm Atlantic current that flows North would submerge (because the ice-water is less salty, and fresher water sits on top of saltier water). I suppose this would make Western Europe colder and drier?

As an aside, I sometimes have to remind myself - and maybe other Americans do too - that Western Europe is far North of us, even the parts of it that have mild weather. I think if you sailed a boat out of Boston or New York City and went straight East, you'd hit Portugal. London is further North than Toronto.

 

[Samson]

The record breaking Indian heatwave is probably one

What is troubling about the heatwave affecting the 1.8 billion people on the Indian subcontinent is not just that it is so hot, but that the record-breaking temperatures arrived so early. Scorching heat is usual for the months of April to July, but a heatwave in March is not normal. March was the hottest in India and Pakistan since records began 122 years ago. Records are being broken by large margins. In India’s capital, Delhi, thermometers reached an unprecedented 49C in May, far exceeding the previous highest-ever temperature of 45.6C in 1941. Meanwhile, heatwaves raged at both of Earth’s poles. This weekend, deadly heat hit Spain and the south-western US.
A study in the Lancet last year suggested that 740,000 deaths in India a year could already be attributed to global heating.

Greenhouse gas emissions are also changing the atmosphere in ways that make the region’s vital monsoon season both wetter and less predictable.​

 

[EgonSpengler]

The record breaking Indian heatwave is probably one

What is troubling about the heatwave affecting the 1.8 billion people on the Indian subcontinent is not just that it is so hot, but that the record-breaking temperatures arrived so early. Scorching heat is usual for the months of April to July, but a heatwave in March is not normal. March was the hottest in India and Pakistan since records began 122 years ago. Records are being broken by large margins. In India’s capital, Delhi, thermometers reached an unprecedented 49C in May, far exceeding the previous highest-ever temperature of 45.6C in 1941. Meanwhile, heatwaves raged at both of Earth’s poles. This weekend, deadly heat hit Spain and the south-western US.
A study in the Lancet last year suggested that 740,000 deaths in India a year could already be attributed to global heating.

Greenhouse gas emissions are also changing the atmosphere in ways that make the region’s vital monsoon season both wetter and less predictable.​

At the end of April, New Delhi, a city of ~28.5 million people, recorded temperatures above 40C/104F for 7 consecutive days.

CNN, 2 May 2022 - "India and Pakistan heatwave is 'testing the limits of human survivability,' expert says"

I haven't quite figured out how to understand "wet bulb temperature", but I think it's similar to "heat index", which tries to account for humidity, because the human body's ability to cool itself is reliant on our sweat being able to evaporate. Unfortunately I can't find what the heat index was in New Delhi during that heatwave.

From the Wikipedia page on Wet-bulb temperature:

Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32 °C (90 °F), equivalent to a heat index of 55 °C (130 °F). The theoretical limit to human survival for more than a few hours in the shade, even with unlimited water, is a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F) – theoretically equivalent to a heat index of 70 °C (160 °F), though the heat index does not go that high.

So it wouldn't have needed to be too humid for a temp of 49/120 to have a heat index of 55/130. Note that these numbers are all while in the shade.

The U.S. National Weather Service heat index chart only goes up to an air temp of 110F/43C, but we can see that at 110F/43C, with 40% humidity, the heat index is 136F/58C.

 

[Samson]

Rising sea levels threaten 200,000 England properties

Beeb article on what I think is a withdrawn paper. Interesting map:

 

[Samson]

Another recent paper, showing current climate change in Central Asia

As global temperatures rise, desert climates have spread north by up to 100 kilometres in parts of Central Asia since the 1980s, a climate assessment reveals.

The study, published on 27 May in Geophysical Research Letters, also found that over the past 35 years, temperatures have increased across all of Central Asia, which includes parts of China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. In the same period, mountain regions have become hotter and wetter — which might have accelerated the retreat of some major glaciers.

Such changes threaten ecosystems and those who rely on them, says Jeffrey Dukes, an ecologist at the Carnegie Institution for Science’s Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, California. The findings are a “great first step” towards informing mitigation and adaptation policies, he says.

Hu and climate scientist Zihang Han at Lanzhou University in China used air temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2020 to divide Central Asia into 11 climate types.

They found that since the late 1980s, the area classed as having a desert climate has expanded eastwards, and has spread north by as much as 100 kilometres in northern Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, in southern Kazakhstan and around the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. Hu says this is a substantial expansion and has had a domino effect on adjacent climate zones, which have also become drier. In some areas, the annual average temperature was at least 5 °C higher between 1990 and 2020 than it was between 1960 and 1979, with summers becoming drier and rainfall occurring mostly during winter.
​

Changes of climate types in the region from 1960 to 2020.

Spoiler Key :

Paper Writeup

 

[Samson]

Nepal to move Everest base camp from melting glacier

Nepal is preparing to move its Everest base camp because global warming and human activity are making it unsafe.
The camp, used by up to 1,500 people in the spring climbing season, is situated on the rapidly thinning Khumbu glacier.
A new site is to be found at a lower altitude, where there is no year-round ice, an official told the BBC.
Researchers say melt-water destabilises the glacier, and climbers say crevasses are increasingly appearing at base camp while they sleep.
​

 

[EgonSpengler]

NPR, 17 June 2022 - "There's a nationwide Sriracha shortage, and climate change may be to blame"

The company that makes Sriracha, Huy Fong Foods, wrote in an email to customers in late April that it will have to stop making the sauce for the next few months due to "severe weather conditions affecting the quality of chili peppers."

(photo)

Spoiler :

The shortage is due to a failed chili pepper harvest in northern Mexico, where all of the chilies used in Sriracha come from, according to National Autonomous University of Mexico's Guillermo Murray Tortarolo, who studies climate and ecosystems.

"Sriracha is actually made from a very special type of pepper that only grows in the southern U.S. and northern Mexico," Murray Tortarolo said. "These red jalapeños are only grown during the first four months of the year, and they need very controlled conditions, particularly constant irrigation."

Irrigation, of course, requires lots of water, but northern Mexico is in its second year of a drought.

"The already difficult conditions were pushed over the limit by two consecutive La Niña events. And the dry season has not only been intense, but also remarkably long," Murray Tortarolo said.

As a result, the spring chili harvest was almost nonexistent this year. Murray Tortarolo thinks it's very likely that climate change is a factor, although it requires further study to confirm.

Photo of "La Boca dam in Santiago, Mexico in March. The lack of rain has reduced the dam capacity to 10%, the lowest in the last 40 years."

Spoiler :

"This has been the driest 22 years in the last 1,200 years," UCLA hydroclimatologist Park Williams said. Williams recently led a study of the megadrought, published in Nature Climate Change.

It's hard to say climate change caused the drought, Williams said, but it's certainly made it worse. His research estimates that about 40% of the drought can be attributed to human-caused climate change.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Many civilizations in History were wiped out, without apparent reason.. Environmental Change increasingly seems to be the previously unidentified a driver. That was at a "natural" pace of many generations/centuries. We're going to experience it in the next 10 years.

 

[Birdjaguar]

It's certainly a good thing they have stopped watering all golf courses in TX, NM, AZ and So Cal.......