Comrade Ceasefire
Simmer slowly
Increasing sea and ocean temperatures scare me the most.
From the attached (freely available) recent paper...
If we extrapolate 2 degrees higher, say to year 2100, from the value 4 near 2005 we find PDI=10.66, that is a factor 10.66/4=2.67 larger. So the PDI roughly triples if there is a 2 C increase in sea temperature.
In terms of windspeed the increase will be proportional to the cube root, thus an increase in windspeed by a factor (2.67)^(1/3)=1.386.
So the maximum wind scale would be increased by 39% while the expected monetary losses, scaling with power expended would nearly triple, increasing by a factor 2.67.
I'll leave it as an exercise for those who like playing with spreadsheet calculations to estimate what the maximum windspeed would be if there was, say a 4C increase in sea temperature instead of 2C by 2100. That's quite likely from recent data I have seen.
Allowances for wind loading in new buildings might be out by a very large amount in the very near future. And by 2100, who knows. But hang onto your hat!
From the attached (freely available) recent paper...
If we extrapolate 2 degrees higher, say to year 2100, from the value 4 near 2005 we find PDI=10.66, that is a factor 10.66/4=2.67 larger. So the PDI roughly triples if there is a 2 C increase in sea temperature.
In terms of windspeed the increase will be proportional to the cube root, thus an increase in windspeed by a factor (2.67)^(1/3)=1.386.
So the maximum wind scale would be increased by 39% while the expected monetary losses, scaling with power expended would nearly triple, increasing by a factor 2.67.
I'll leave it as an exercise for those who like playing with spreadsheet calculations to estimate what the maximum windspeed would be if there was, say a 4C increase in sea temperature instead of 2C by 2100. That's quite likely from recent data I have seen.
Allowances for wind loading in new buildings might be out by a very large amount in the very near future. And by 2100, who knows. But hang onto your hat!