Climate Change Anecdotes

They had imported wine here at $3 usd a bottle.
Is that supposed to be bad in some way?

Spoiler :
I am kind of joking, in that more booze is always individually better. It is of course not, and the economic effects are worth considering and this is not actually the most serious global warming issue that we are facing.
 
Is that supposed to be bad in some way?

Spoiler :
I am kind of joking, in that more booze is always individually better. It is of course not, and the economic effects are worth considering and this is not actually the most serious global warming issue that we are facing.

The wine was bad but yeah there was a glut of wine not to long ago.
 
Too much of supply can lower prices so producers and bottlers complain.
 
Climate-heating gases reach record highs

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin represents the latest analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Programme. It shows globally averaged surface mole fractions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and compares them with the mole fractions during the previous year and with the preindustrial levels. It also provides insights on the change in radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs (LLGHGs) and the contribution of individual gases to this increase.

The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year and there is no end in sight to the rising trend. Global averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, in 2022 were a full 50% above the pre-industrial era for the first time. They continued to grow in 2023.

The rate of growth in CO2 concentrations was slightly lower than the previous year and the average for the decade, according to WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. But it said this was most likely due to natural, short-term variations in the carbon cycle and that new emissions as a result of industrial activities continued to rise.

Methane concentrations also grew, and levels of nitrous oxide, the third main gas, saw the highest year-on-year increase on record from 2021 to 2022, according to the Greenhouse Bulletin, which is published to inform the United Nations Climate Change negotiations, or COP28, in Dubai.


Spoiler As a 1:20 youtube if you are into that sort of thing :
 
Major US climate disasters occur every three weeks, report finds

‘Unprecedented’: That’s how an assessment, released by the administration of President Joe Biden, describes the toll that climate change is taking on the United States.

Extreme weather events caused by global warming cost the country around US$150 billion in direct damages each year, says the climate report, released on 14 November. From 2018 to 2022, the United States experienced 89 climate disasters that each cost at least $1 billion in damages. That equates to one every three weeks, as compared with one every four months in the 1980s.

This year, a wildfire in Maui killed at least 97 people — the deadliest US wildfire in more than a century — and the first-ever tropical storm watch was issued for southern California in the wake of Hurricane Hillary.

“Climate change is here,” says Arati Prabhakar, Biden’s chief science adviser and director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. But Prabhakar says that the United States is stepping up to the challenge with significant new climate investments, “and this gives us hope that we can move at a scale that the climate notices”.

The fifth National Climate Assessment is technically a year overdue. By law, the US government must complete the report every four years, reviewing the latest climate science and offering guidance to state and local officials about how to adapt to global warming. The last one was issued in 2018, after which the administration of former president Donald Trump appointed an official with a history of criticizing climate research to head the process of drafting the next report. The Biden administration assembled a different team after taking charge in 2021, and roughly 500 authors worked on the final version.


A drought that began in 2000 (left) has caused the Colorado River’s levels to drop steadily. Lake Mead, a reservoir along the river in Nevada and Arizona, was filled to just 27% capacity in 2022 (right). The reservoir supplies water to millions.
 
The Overton Arm of Lake Mead (and the Colorado River) is just one short branch of the river in Nevada. It does illustrate the 20 years of drought story pretty well. AZ and CA have been sucking water from the river with little regard for its diminishing capacity for years. IIRC Saudi Arabia and China own a big chunk of AZ farmland and grow hay to feed Saudi and Chinese horses and cows.
 
The really depressing part is that it would actually cost less to tackle carbon emissions than it cost to repair the damage.
 
The really depressing part is that it would actually cost less to tackle carbon emissions than it cost to repair the damage.
Unfortunately it is different people who pay in the two scenarios.
 
Is it too late to keep global warming below 1.5 °C?
The challenge in 7 charts

It is "interactive" if you go to natures site, but I have tried to summarise the charts here. I could have misunderstood any, I have not read it in detail.

Likely tempuratures


This is what we should do with carbon emissions to be confident of staying below 1.5 C, and what we would have had to do if we had started sooner.


Likely emissions (dark orange), emissions to limit to 2 C (light orange) and emissions to limit to 1.5 C (blue)


We might make electricity from other stuff?


With these techs


We know who did it


And we have to spend money to fix it
 
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Too hot for cod to make babies?

Too little, too late: the desperate search for cod babies

Two decades ago, cod numbers were such that the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea recommended fishing up to 32,000 tonnes in the Faroe Shelf. This year, populations are so small the council has advised no fishing for two years.

Faroese cod is not the only species of the fish that is suffering: all over the world, numbers are reaching critical lows. There are approximately 20 distinct cod populations in the north Atlantic, yet only two are plentiful: one in the Barents Sea and the other Icelandic.

Historically, overfishing was the main reason cod numbers plummeted. But now, scientists warn that warming waters are having dire effects on their ability to reproduce. Indeed, some worry that the climate emergency will make it impossible for certain cod populations to fully recover.

Studies show that cod do not spawn in waters warmer than 9.6C (49F) – but even before that point, reproduction is affected. “Stocks [in Irish and Scottish waters] have not necessarily hit that target of 9.6, but they’re already having a reduced productivity,” says Geir Huse from the Institute of Marine Research in Norway, who also contributed to the research on climate breakdown and cod numbers.

Once caught, cod is transported around the world. But when alive, the fish is loyal to local grounds: Faroese cod spawn and live within the Faroe Shelf; Icelandic cod within Icelandic waters. The species do not interact, and the climate crisis affects them differently.
 
Well cold weather doesn't stop humans (eskimos, patagonians and siberians etc) from spawning.

Time for those cod to get evolving to spawn in the warmer water.

If they can not, perhaps some money needs to be spent on helping them by genetic engineering that.
 
Mid-Atlantic Blue Crabs are being seen and caught in nets in Northern New England. Blue Crabs are omnivores that eat, among other things, clams, oysters, mussels, and other crustaceans. Blue crabs in turn are eaten by eels, rays and sharks, so the drift of a prey population would, I assume, bring those other animals with them, eventually.


I read that Blue Crabs from the Eastern US are already a real problem for fisheries in Italy, but that's not strictly due to climate change (it's believed the crabs were carried across the Atlantic in the ballast water tanks of big ships), but climate change may be making it worse - I read that a drought along the Po River has made the Northern Adriatic saltier, and Blue Crabs thrive in salty or brackish shallows, and they're eating the shellfish beds.
 
The Guardian is reporting that the country with the highest CO2 emissions says we can keep warming below 1.5 C, without referencing the numbers from the report I quoted above. :mad:

Deal to keep 1.5C hopes alive is within reach, says Cop28 president

An “unprecedented outcome” that would keep alive hopes of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C is within reach, the president-designate of the UN Cop28 climate summit has said – and even Saudi Arabia is expected to come with positive commitments.

Significant progress has been made in recent weeks on key aspects of a deal at the crucial meeting that starts in Dubai this week, with countries agreeing a blueprint for a fund for the most vulnerable, and reaching an important milestone on climate finance.

Sultan Al Jaber, who will lead the talks on behalf of the Cop28 host country, the United Arab Emirates, told the Guardian in an exclusive interview on the eve of the talks that the positive momentum meant the world could agree a “robust roadmap” of cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 that would meet scientific advice.

This is the "advice" I guess, we need the to be in the blue region to keep it to 1.5 C:

 
Ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions

I have not read it in any detail, and the writeup is paywalled. I like the graph though, it really puts it into perspective.

Growing consumption is both necessary to end extreme poverty and one of the main drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potential tension between alleviating poverty and limiting global warming. Most poverty reduction has historically occurred because of economic growth, which means that reducing poverty entails increasing not only the consumption of people living in poverty but also the consumption of people with a higher income. Here we estimate the emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty using the international poverty line of US $2.15 per day. Even with historical energy- and carbon-intensity patterns, the global emissions increase associated with alleviating extreme poverty is modest, at 2.37 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year or 4.9% of 2019 global emissions. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy can ease this tension further: assuming the best historical performance, the emissions for poverty alleviation in 2050 will be reduced by 90%. More ambitious poverty lines require more economic growth in more countries, which leads to notably higher emissions. The challenge to align the development and climate objectives of the world is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing sustainable middle-income standards of living.



Spoiler Legend :
a, Annual CO2e increase of poverty reduction at three poverty lines (percentage of 2019 global emissions) by region, b, Emissions of poverty alleviation in 2050 by country. The bar width of each country is scaled to their population in 2019. The yellow areas show the CO2e needed to end extreme poverty in 2050, expressed relative to the emissions of the country in 2019. The sum of the blue and yellow areas shows the CO2e needed to reach the target poverty rate of 3% at $3.65, and equivalently for $6.85. tCO2e, tonne carbon dioxide equivalent. BGD, Bangladesh; ETH, Ethiopia; NGA, Nigeria; PAK, Pakistan; PHL, Philippines; IND, India; EGY, Egypt; VNM, Vietnam; MEX, Mexico; TUR, Turkey; BRA, Brazil; IDN, Indonesia; COD, Democratic Republic of the Congo; CHN, China; DEU, Germany; JPN, Japan; IRN, Iran; RUS, Russia; USA, United States of America.
 
Too little, too late: the desperate search for cod babies

Historically, it was overfishing that hurt the much-prized fish – but now rising ocean temperatures are inhibiting the fish’s ability to produce codlings at all
 

I have no idea what to make of any of this. Another agreement to blah-blah-blah over the next blah-blah years... Am I supposed to believe that the companies and nations that make so much money on the production and use of fossil fuels have suddenly "seen the light"? The BBC broadcast I'm listening to noted that the representatives of the Alliance of Small Island States were literally not even in the room when this deal was approved. The woman representing Samoa said they walked into the chamber and found everyone clapping and congratulating themselves.
 
Even in the 80's it was bigger.

Franz Joseph Glacier.

1908
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2023
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