CTIV-3: Tokugawa by Sea

[Kikinit]

Um... posted this before but didn't really take much notice of what it said!. This says lizzy is 2nd!! Is this land area and not population or has she just overtaken JC?

Maybe we don't need to gift her a city. Thinking about it, hasn't JC been losing a few cities in recent turns? If so, this is really good for us as he is more friendly to us than Lizzy and we can get his vote easier.

 

[ChrTh]

Looked at the save, JC is still 2nd. Looks like he's about a dozen votes ahead of Liz, don't know how easy it'll be for Liz to catch up. Monty is only a couple votes behind Liz, and they probably flip-flop.

Probably need to stop trading with either Monty or Liz ...

 

[GreyFox]

Lurker: I see this game has been reduced to a 2 man tag-team ... But the two of you are doing well, and on the verge of winning ... However, if you really need a 3rd player, let me know. Happy to play a couple of turnsets ...

 

[Kikinit]

Greyfox: To be quite honest any help at this point would be greatly appreciated. ChrTh and I are the only ones that are playing at the moment and to have a third person play a few turnsets would be excellent. I am sure ChrTh is in agreement as he had previously gone out searching in vain for new players.

As to being on the verge of winning.. ha. We wish. We are probably closest to the diplomatic win, but are struggling to get the right method to push us over the line. Everytime I look at how to do it, I come away .

Grab It Rules for this game: (as posted by ChrTh - there is no roster)

You can not play more than 10 turns at a time, unless you're evening up the turns. You can grab it for 5 turns twice in succession to get to 10.
5 turns must be played before you can grab it again.

 

[Kikinit]

Got it. I will play another 5 now to make up 10.

I will wait for the next vote for UN head (or whatever it's called) and see who is our opponent. We can then make plans to go to war/cease trading etc.

 

[ChrTh]

Greyfox: To be quite honest any help at this point would be greatly appreciated. ChrTh and I are the only ones that are playing at the moment and to have a third person play a few turnsets would be excellent. I am sure ChrTh is in agreement as he had previously gone out searching in vain for new players.

As to being on the verge of winning.. ha. We wish. We are probably closest to the diplomatic win, but are struggling to get the right method to push us over the line. Everytime I look at how to do it, I come away .

Grab It Rules for this game: (as posted by ChrTh - there is no roster)

You can not play more than 10 turns at a time, unless you're evening up the turns. You can grab it for 5 turns twice in succession to get to 10.
5 turns must be played before you can grab it again.

What Kikinit said ... heck, if Jeff1787 can come back, we might be able to build a formal roster! ... naaaah ...

 

[Kikinit]

@Greyfox: While I remember... grab an old save from this game and try your PC out first. It is a huge map and caused problems for a lot of people and is why they quit.

Turn 0 -- 1838 AD

Ok.. this was my shot last time anyway so I just hit enter.

Turn 1 -- 1840AD

Railroad comes in. I want democracy next as i want to get Statue of Liberty and all the free specialists (and extra research). Due in 3.

I start searching for all our sleeping workers to get them going again and building railroads. Thought I got them all and still found about 5 more after I this... hopefully that's it. Some of the older islands haven't got any workers any more as they were moved to other places. A bit of shipping will need to be done.

IBT: Vote for Secretary General comes up and it's still between us and JC. I vote for us of course.

Turn 2 -- 1836 AD

Kumbi Saleh: Library -> Forge. Will need to whip it in a few turns I think.
Awlil: Forge -> Barracks.

IBT: Monte has made peace with Alex. Now only JC and Hatty are fighting.

Vote for Sec. Gen comes in and we win in a landslide. 778 votes out of 939! Only JC and Cyrus didn't vote for us and Cyrus abstained.

The votes are below. We need to work out what this means to our relations.


Turn 3 -- 1838 AD

Yokohama: lighthouse -> workboat. Whip this city like mad.. it has 2 fish and a clam and will grow back in no time.

IBT: Washington comes asking us to cancel our deals with the vile greek. I want to keep Alex and ditch washington later, so I will say bugger off for now.

Turn 4 -- 1840 AD

Democracy is in. I choose to go for artillery next with ChrTh's goal of space race in mind if we can't get this diplomatic stuff happening.

I whip the workboat in Yokohama.

All our biggest production cities are set to building wonders so the statue will have to wait for now.

Turn 5 -- 1842 AD

Izuma: Lighthouse -> Forge
Yokohama: Workboat -> Forge

Diplomatic Situation at the end of 1842 AD.
Civ -- Attitude towards us -- Attitude towards JC
JC -- +5 -- nm
Alex -- +8 -- +2
HC -- +10 -- -2
Monte -- +3 -- +2
Lizzy -- +3 -- -3
Cyrus -- -4 -- -4
Washington -- +2 -- -6
Hatty -- +7 -- -16!!

In my last few turns I have built very little military and we should think about beefing up our defenses as we may be getting a bit vulnerable on the edges. Just something to keep in mind for the next few turns.. Build them when you can.

 

[Kikinit]

And the save.
http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads11/CTIV-3_AD-1842.Civ4SavedGame

 

[ChrTh]

I think the landslide for Sec Gen is just a reflection of the drop in relations b/t JC and Monty when Monty grabbed Free Religion. I don't think it's more likely that we'll win at diplo at this point.

Make sure that lumbermills are railroaded first, as that provides a production bonus.

We should have some factories finishing shortly, so we can start SoL in one of them.

Definitely start beefing up troops to Marines. This is an island map (although if we go after Lizzy, we won't need them as much).

 

[Kikinit]

Civ -- worst enemy
JC -- Hatty
Alex -- Lizzy
HC -- Washington
Monte -- Lizzy
Lizzy -- Alex
Cyrus -- Alex
Washington -- Alex
Hatty -- Monte

Civ -- Attitude towards us -- Attitude towards JC
JC -- +5 -- nm
Alex -- +8 -- +2
HC -- +10 -- -2
Monte -- +3 -- +2
Lizzy -- +3 -- -3
Cyrus -- -4 -- -4
Washington -- +2 -- -6
Hatty -- +7 -- -16!!

Ok.. JC is still our rival and to win diplomatic we will need about 550-570 votes (at a guess). If we try and get Alex, HC and Hatty, it will give us 290(us)+100(Alex)+53(HC)+48(Hatty)=491. Not enough.

If we try for Alex, HC and Monte, it will give us 290(us)+100(Alex)+53(HC)+106(Monte)=549. That's almost enough, but monte is only +3.. so not so easy to get over the line..

Hmm.. how about getting Alex, HC and Monte to go to war with us against Lizzy. Boost all our populations and keep JC in 2nd at the same time. We would need to stop trading with no-one else as Monte and Alex both have Lizzy as there worst enemies and HC is already voting for us to win... The war and stopping trading with the worst enemies may be enough to get them over to us.

That's about the only way I can see to get this to work.

 

[ChrTh]

Hmm.. how about getting Alex, HC and Monte to go to war with us against Lizzy. Boost all our populations and keep JC in 2nd at the same time. We would need to stop trading with no-one else as Monte and Alex both have Lizzy as there worst enemies and HC is already voting for us to win... The war and stopping trading with the worst enemies may be enough to get them over to us.

That's about the only way I can see to get this to work.

Same here. Since we would do most of the fighting, we would be grabbing the majority of Liz' population, so we might not even need Monte's votes.

The problem is, I don't really want a Backdoor Diplomacy win. But I guess taking Liz' continent would only get us to 390 (actually, after population decreases during conquest, more like 370), which isn't enough to vote ourselves to victory, but would virtually ensure we're Sec Gen until the end of the game.

After Artillery, let's get Combustion. We can upgrade to transports and destroyers and get our troops topped off and going. A Marine/Artillery/Tank invasion should be pretty successful...if we choose to go that way.

 

[Kikinit]

I don't see it as a backdoor win. We are not going to be able to get that many votes. There's nothing to say you can't go to war to win a diplomatic game .

I think you trigger domination before you can vote yourself to a diplomatic win anyway. I just think that we should try it out and fall back on space if it doesn't come through.

Somehow spacerace seems like the weakest win from here as it's just inevitable.

 

[ChrTh]

Got it, playing for 5.

 

[ChrTh]

Er, I meant 10

Turn 0 -- 1842 AD

I cancel all deals with Lizzie.

JC +5
Alex +8
HC +10
Monty +3
Lizzie +3
Cyrus -4
GW +2
Hattie +7

Broadway and Artillery due in 4.

Turn 1 -- 1844 AD

GW wants to trade Military Tradition + 100 gold for SciMeth. Turn him down.
Hattie wants to trade Military Tradition + 90 gold for Steel. Turn her down.

Awlil: Barracks > Factory.

UN Vote Comes Up. I go with Single Currency.

Christianity spreads in Tokyo.

Turn 2 -- 1846 AD

Cyrus wants us to cancel with the Greeks. I tell him to shove off.
Hattie wants us to give her Steel. I can't do it.

Satsuma: Observatory > Factory

Single Currency passes unanimously, and of course I forget to take a screenshot.

A whole lotta railroading.

Turn 3 -- 1848 AD

More railroading.

Turn 4 -- 1850 AD

JC wants us to declare on Hattie. I turn him down. I do sell him a Hit Musical for 1gpt.
Liz wants us to cancel deals with Alex. I turn her down. No music for her.

Artillery > Combustion

Yaroslav'l: Broadway > Factory

Hattie makes peace with JC. (finally)

Turn 5 -- 1852 AD

Cyrus demands Steam Power. He doesn't get it, does he?
Hattie wants us to cancel with JC. Not going to do it.

Djenne: Bank > Factory

UN vote time. We have 299 votes. I'm going to make sure there aren't any Mercantile CIVs left and choose Open Markets.

I've been working on the railroad ...

Turn 6 -- 1854 AD

JC wants to trade Mil Trad for Steam Power. Nah.
Alex wants to trade Mil Trad for Democracy. Since he don't have SoL yet, Nah.

Sheesh, I forgot to trade Hit Musicals! To HC for 5gpt. No one else has gpt available.

Open Markets succeeds -- barely! Got 512 votes when it needed 489. Don't see anyone converting, though.
Forgot to take screenshot again

Turn 7 -- 1856 AD

Rostov: Factory > Coal Plant
Moscow: Ironworks > Factory

Turn 8 -- 1858 AD

Combustion comes in. Start on Plastics. Due in 8. MOSCOW FINISHES FACTORY IN 7. MOSCOW SHOULD BUILD THE THREE GORGES DAM.

Osaka finishes Wall Street, starts on Factory.

We find a new source of Coal near Nagoya (on a mined tile), but there's no road!

Turn 9 -- 1860 AD

St. Petersburg: Factory > Bank

Ok, another UN Resolution. I choose the No-Nuke one. We have 306 votes.

Start building Oil Wells.

Turn 10 -- 1862 AD

Yakutsk: Factory > Worker (we have an un-lumbermilled forest!)

No Nukes succeeds Unanimously. I take a screenshot:


Ho ho ho! Lizzie is catching up to JC!

Ok, well hmmm ...

We have 3673 in the treasury, earning +119gpt with Science at 80%. We can already upgrade to Transports and Destroyers if we wish, but we can't build the oil-only units yet (~10 turns for a well).

Here's the Question: What if Lizzie catches up with JC? Can we pull off a diplo victory without attacking Liz?

Here's the save:
http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads11/CTIV-3_AD-1856.Civ4SavedGame

 

[Kikinit]

Good stuff ChrTh

We are slowly getting there. We were thinking of getting a party together with Alex, HC and Monte. If JC doesn't become our opponent for a diplomatic win then that is even better as far as I can see. We should be cosying up to him as his votes would definitely push us over. Make it a party of 5 .

If we get JC, Alex and HC voting with us, it will give us 594 votes out of 982 (60.4%). Don't know if it's enough, but I would hope it's pretty darn close. And of course Monte too would push it even higher.

Now how do we get Lizzy to be our opponent in the votes? She is 116 vs. JC's 121.

Let's look into ways to get these 4 happier with us and forget the rest. Trading with Washington, Hatty and Lizzy should be a no-no.

I think we will need to keep actively trading with our party of 5 as I think this reduces their demands. If you don't give them reasonable deals, they start getting demanding and that really hurts our relations.

 

[ChrTh]

Forgot to discuss diplo. After 10 turns:
Civ Begin End Change
JC +5 +4 -1
Alex +8 +8 --
HC +10 +10 --
Monty +3 +3 --
Lizzie +3 +5 +2
Cyrus -4 -5 -1
GW +2 +2 --
Hattie +7 +5 -2

Diplo Requires 608 votes. We're good for 309. So we need ~300 votes to win.

EDIT: Cross-posted. Lizzy's population appears to be growing faster than JC's (difference used to be 12 votes, now it's 5). I don't think we can do anything to help her short of giving her a city (and last I checked she didn't want one).

SECOND EDIT: I agree that we should have a joint group with Monte, JC, Alex, and HC. Next player should probably cancel all deals with Hattie and GW. Does the "traded with worst enemy" penalty disappear with time?

 

[GreyFox]

I have checked ... the game loaded (albeit very slowly), but I have a question: why aren't you guys planning to settle more cities? To go diplomatic, I thought you would settle as much as possible. I see there are still pockets of islands still unsettled around us (one even has a goody hut!). But they are currently fogged, so maybe you guys know for sure that they are taken?

If I am joining in, I would most likely play tonight or tomorrow, got to work today

-

 

[ChrTh]

Settle more cities? I guess it's a possibility, although I imagine that island has been settled already. Trading World Maps with HC will probably show us if it has or not, since he's the closest to it.

 

[Kikinit]

I have checked ... the game loaded (albeit very slowly)

That's normal. The bigger issue is how long it takes between turns to get a guage for how troublesome it is. Mine takes maybe 60s to load and 10-15 between turns. Sometimes longer.

I have a question: why aren't you guys planning to settle more cities?

All I can say to that is . I have been too busy thinking of diplomatic to do too much of that. Although we have settled a few new cities every now and then. That's why we need another player to give us another view.

If I am joining in, I would most likely play tonight or tomorrow, got to work today

Hmmm.. better get back to mine now..

 

[ChrTh]

One More Thing: While looking at the save, I realized that Moscow is NOT on a River (the Fresh Water is from a Lake). Yaroslav'l might be the best place to put the 3 Gorges Dam, and have Moscow build SoL.