Jeff: We're epic
Gemini: None of the above
... (ok, maybe #2 is the closest) here's why:
#1: We don't start with Mysticism, and therefore don't have a leg up on Hinduism or Buddhism. However, since it's a Huge map, there's like 14 other Civs in the game, and the odds are at least two will start with Mysticism. Unless we beeline straight for theocracy, there's virtually no chance of us getting a religion, and frankly, we're better off concentrating on other techs.
#2: Commerce should actually be easy since it's an Archipelago. However, trading might be tough (outside of naturally forming trade routes) because of the routes available.
#3: We're an archipelago, with all the logistics that entails. In addition, building an army early sacrifices other things that may be of benefit, so while we're trying to conquer with Samurai, a Civ on the other side of the world will be researching Rifling.
So here's how I see the strategy:
First Phase: Explore and Settle. Build protective military.
Second Phase: Find nearby weak civ(s). Conquer. If we conquer everyone within galley reach before Caravels, great, if not, well, that shouldn't be an issue.
Third Phase: Explore, Settle, and build up core
Fourth Phase: Unleash Hell on the World
Tech research should focus on Naval (Sailing, Compass, Optics, etc.) and Military (Bronze Working, Iron Working, Metal Casting, etc.) with other techs grabbed when needed. We'll probably want to get the Great Lighthouse, and we need to make every effort to circumnavigate the globe first for that extra movement point.
)
... but we'll stick with Conquest only 
