[RD] Daily Graphs and Charts

[hobbsyoyo]

Chart is missing Tesla it seems

 

[Broken_Erika]

Chart is missing Tesla it seems

It's between Mitsubishi and McLaren.

 

[Hrothbern]

Any bold specualations how the landscape will change from the electric wave around 2025 ?

I see Jaguar Landrover move to BMW and FCA merging with another group.

Chart is missing Tesla it seems

Tesla is among the independents

(Will GM eat them up ?)

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Not as long as Elon is in charge.

 

[Cutlass]

Any bold specualations how the landscape will change from the electric wave around 2025 ?

I see Jaguar Landrover move to BMW and FCA merging with another group.



Tesla is among the independents

(Will GM eat them up ?)

There's been muttering about increasing consolidation for years now. It'll happen, even if we don't yet know the look of it.

 

[Hrothbern]

There's been muttering about increasing consolidation for years now. It'll happen, even if we don't yet know the look of it.

It could also end up as a restructuring of the manufacturing depth.

Traditional you had Ford with the almost full manufacturing depth: from his own steel mill and rubber plantation, to all components, to the assembled car.

Now we have, for fossil combustion cars, a hybrid strongly leaning on the tier 1 automotive suppliers: Brand, Marketing, (strategic) R&D, Assembly Line as core and components transported to assembly from buy (the tier 1) or make.

But what is really core ?
The Brand ?
And with increased robotising... how versatile can assembly lines be for models and Brands ?

Without the electrification I would expect big restructurings over time...
but with electrification a growing reality, the final decisions on battery and Hydrogen somewhat open yet, the demand of lots of R&D and re-routings...

Perhaps everybody is waiting, already prepping, for that transition for a cascade of changes.

 

[Cutlass]

It could also end up as a restructuring of the manufacturing depth.

Traditional you had Ford with the almost full manufacturing depth: from his own steel mill and rubber plantation, to all components, to the assembled car.

Now we have, for fossil combustion cars, a hybrid strongly leaning on the tier 1 automotive suppliers: Brand, Marketing, (strategic) R&D, Assembly Line as core and components transported to assembly from buy (the tier 1) or make.

But what is really core ?
The Brand ?
And with increased robotising... how versatile can assembly lines be for models and Brands ?

Without the electrification I would expect big restructurings over time...
but with electrification a growing reality, the final decisions on battery and Hydrogen somewhat open yet, the demand of lots of R&D and re-routings...

Perhaps everybody is waiting, already prepping, for that transition for a cascade of changes.

It isn't really the electrification which is the core threat to the industry. It's the self driving. Once self driving cars become common as dirt, there will be far more car-sharing, and less individual ownership. This will result in a major decrease in the production volumes of the auto industry. When you can get on your phone and have a car show up at your door in 10 minutes to use as long as you want, and send back when you're done with it, why own?

 

[Hrothbern]

It isn't really the electrification which is the core threat to the industry. It's the self driving. Once self driving cars become common as dirt, there will be far more car-sharing, and less individual ownership. This will result in a major decrease in the production volumes of the auto industry. When you can get on your phone and have a car show up at your door in 10 minutes to use as long as you want, and send back when you're done with it, why own?

Agree with that self driving !
It will change the volume enormously.
But is that not a horizon of 20 years or so ?

 

[Cutlass]

Agree with that self driving !
It will change the volume enormously.
But is that not a horizon of 20 years or so ?

I don't know how many years it will be before the self driving cars are good enough to be adopted in bulk. But once they are it will be some 15-20 years before the become the dominant cars on the road. Because that's how long cars last.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I wonder if short term rental prices will be high enough to keep people buying their own cars for a while after self-driving car introduction?

Right now if you own a home, the charging of an electric car is very inexpensive but if you rent and therefore have to use public chargers, the electricity is only marginally cheaper than gasoline. I wonder if self-driving cars will be like that where all the rental services are expensive enough that people will still buy for longer than they otherwise would. As usual, those that own the capital gouge the rest of us even if it's to the detriment of society. A society that functions as well with a fraction of the amount of cars it used to have is a major improvement on so many fronts.

 

[Cutlass]

I wonder if short term rental prices will be high enough to keep people buying their own cars for a while after introduction?

Right now if you own a home, the charging of an electric car is very inexpensive but if you rent and therefore have to use public chargers, the electricity is only marginally cheaper than gasoline. I wonder if self-driving cars will be like that where all the rental services are expensive enough that you people will still buy.

Any new market takes a while to become mature. But it won't take long. Urban millenials, like yourself, are already reducing car ownership.

 

[really]

The chart is out of date - GM sold Opel/Vauxhall to PSA/the Peugeot group.
It has given up on being world #1.

I know it says major brands but it does seem to ignore big Chinese or Indian groups if they don't own western brands.

 

[civvver]

I was gonna say the same about opel. Aren't there tons of chinese brands? Indian brands too, Mahindra.

 

[Hrothbern]

 

[Cutlass]

The chart is out of date - GM sold Opel/Vauxhall to PSA/the Peugeot group.
It has given up on being world #1.

I know it says major brands but it does seem to ignore big Chinese or Indian groups if they don't own western brands.

It is out of date. And I thought Ford bought Volvo?

I was gonna say the same about opel. Aren't there tons of chinese brands? Indian brands too, Mahindra.

Those brands, and the Russians, have little international position. So why they are probably overlooked.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Ford owned Volvo for a long time but I'm pretty sure they sold it in the last decade

 

[Cutlass]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...k-may-be-worse-than-forecast-u-s-farmers-warn

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Tariffs or rain?

 

[Cutlass]

Tariffs or rain?

Rain. Planting conditions are absolutely terrible, from the reports I've seen.

 

[Hrothbern]

25,000 people were polled:

From https://www.theguardian.com/global-...ns-its-back-on-religion-and-its-ire-on-the-us

Also some more graphs in another article on the same poll here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48703377

There is also a secularisation going on in that 5 year period.
Paralell ?
Chicken-egg ?

The Arab spring (2010-2011) was (mainly) a trust issue regarding the state.

Is this a fatigue of the old structures ?
Is this disappointment of the current situation from "the grass is always greener on the other side of the river" ?
(many young people want to migrate away)

IDK
But I do think it is significant.