Winner
Diverse in Unity
Many people seem to believe that the Russians are now going to cooperate with the US in dealing with the Iranian missile/nuclear threat. I am going to explain why that's nothing but a wishful thinking.
A war between Iran and members of Western alliance (including Israel) is in Russian interest. Why? Because it is the only thing that can allow the Kremlin to finance its great power-like foreign policy and military spending.
Falling oil prices and the economic crisis hit the Russian economy hard. According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 64 percent of Russia’s export revenues in 2006 (source). GlobalSecurity.org says:
In other words, the oil money fueled the Russian military transformation and buildup. Russian plans for a massive overhaul of their military are now threatened by falling oil prices, which are about to end the years of budget surpluses:
(another related article on VOANews.com: Cheap Oil May Spark Russian Budget Crisis)
Not to mention that the economy itself is tanking (it is expected to contract by 7-9% this year), the Russian reserve fund is emptying fast, and a part of the middle class created in the Putin's years of economic growth is now threatened by return to poverty. The one thing that could change this is a return to high oil/natural gas prices which would inject more money into the budget and allow the Kremlin to maintain the kind of spending it has become used to in the last decade.
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So the question is - how could they change the world's prices of oil? Well, if you want to increase a price of something, reducing its availability usually does the trick. In our case, disrupting the oil production in the Persian Gulf would dramatically increase the price of oil, for following reasons:
- Middle East continues to hold most of world's proven reserves of oil
- Middle East continues to be the key exporter of oil
- most of this oil is transported from Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran is in position to seriously threaten, perhaps even close the Strait of Hormuz for a short period of time if hostilities erupted between Iran and the West. Even worse, Iran could use its short and medium-range missiles to attack vulnerable oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf, potentially disrupting the production for years. Moreover, it isn't that hard to hit an oil supertanker. These ships are not designed to withstand missile attacks, mines or artillery hits. Even if Iran was hit hard by the West, it would probably continue to threaten all shipping in the Gulf, making it too dangerous for use by civilians ships.
Iran would of course suffer devastating losses (its refineries would be bombed, total oil/gas embargo would ruin its economy etc.), but this would actually play exactly into Russia's hands - it would further drive the oil/gas prices up.
Cordesman writes:
I imagine that a Western or Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities wouldn't be received well in Tehran and the country would retaliate by any means necessary, if only to show the world that it can.
So, this leaves the question how would Russia try to cause such a war.
In my opinion, it will further torpedo any attempts by the West to solve this thing via diplomacy - it will not support any serious sanctions or too hard resolutions by the UN Security Council. This serves the purpose of making the regime in Iran feel more secure and thus more stubborn. This is futher supported by Russian arms sales to Iran, in particular the sales of Russia's S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, and their assistance in transfer of nuclear technologies. It appears to be a cynical move by Moscow to make Tehran more intransigent - if the Iranian regime feels more safe from an attack, it will be even less willing to negotiate about its nuclear program. Deployment of advanced anti-aircraft systems would make Israeli strike even more difficult, which could force Israel to act faster than it would have otherwise.
Another possible gain is a greater dependence of post-war Iran on Russia. Russia would thus at least partially recover its lost influence in the region.
History gives us example that Russians have already used this strategy in the past, albeit for different reasons. Soviet misinformations and arms sales contributed to the 1967 Six-Days War and 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and its Arab neighbors, which forced the Arabs to depend more on the Soviet Union. Soviet support for Iraq and Iran helped to prolong the war between them.
Today, Russia has an objective and means to achieve it, so why should it behave differently? It has showed how willing it is to use oil/gas as a weapon. It's foreign policy is essentially opportunistic, it follows its interest with absolute cynicism - and that's not a moral judgment on my part, but a simple statement of fact.
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To summarize this: Russia would profit from a war in the Middle East enormously. Oil prices would rise dramatically, filling Russian coffers with petrodollars and 'gasoeuros' again. This would allow Kremlin to continue in its military reforms and buildup, as well as welfare spending designed to keep the public firmly behind Putin or whoever is in charge.
In short, this isn't far-fetched at all. I am not saying there is a direct evidence, but I think I've demonstrated that it is in Russian interest. If the Russians decide to follow it or not, that's a big unknown here, but judging from the latest Russian moves it is probable they will follow it.
(and I am not the only one who thinks that:
Radio Free Europe:
A war between Iran and members of Western alliance (including Israel) is in Russian interest. Why? Because it is the only thing that can allow the Kremlin to finance its great power-like foreign policy and military spending.
Falling oil prices and the economic crisis hit the Russian economy hard. According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 64 percent of Russia’s export revenues in 2006 (source). GlobalSecurity.org says:
According to figures released in mid-2008 by the State Committee for Statistics, Russia’s revenue for the first half of 2008 amounted to almost 4.4 trillion rubles, about US $176.5 billion at current exchange rates. Expenditures totaled almost US $120.9 billion. Overall, the Russian government was projected to spend almost US $278.6 billion under the 2008 full-year budget. By one analysis, the share of military-security outlays for all of 2008 was projected to approach 40 percent of this total.
In other words, the oil money fueled the Russian military transformation and buildup. Russian plans for a massive overhaul of their military are now threatened by falling oil prices, which are about to end the years of budget surpluses:
Year ---------- budget surplus
------------------------------
2006 (reported) 1,995.0
2007 (ex ante) 998.7
2008 (projected) 74.1
2009 (projected) 14.2
2010 (projected) 0.0
(according to GlobalSecurity.org)
(another related article on VOANews.com: Cheap Oil May Spark Russian Budget Crisis)
Not to mention that the economy itself is tanking (it is expected to contract by 7-9% this year), the Russian reserve fund is emptying fast, and a part of the middle class created in the Putin's years of economic growth is now threatened by return to poverty. The one thing that could change this is a return to high oil/natural gas prices which would inject more money into the budget and allow the Kremlin to maintain the kind of spending it has become used to in the last decade.
---
So the question is - how could they change the world's prices of oil? Well, if you want to increase a price of something, reducing its availability usually does the trick. In our case, disrupting the oil production in the Persian Gulf would dramatically increase the price of oil, for following reasons:
- Middle East continues to hold most of world's proven reserves of oil
- Middle East continues to be the key exporter of oil
- most of this oil is transported from Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz
The Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United
Arab Emirates) produce nearly 30% of the world’s oil, while holding 57% (715 billion
barrels) of the world's crude oil reserves. Iran alone is estimated to hold 11.1 percent of
the world oil reserves (132.0 billion barrels of oil), and 15.3 percent of the world’s
natural gas reserves (970.8 trillion cubic feet).
Besides oil, the Persian Gulf region also
has huge reserves (2,462 trillion cubic feet -- Tcf) of natural gas, accounting for 45% of
total proven world gas reserves.
Iran’s coastline is particularly important because tanker and shipping routes pass so close
to Iran’s land mass, the islands it controls in the Gulf, and its major naval bases. At its
narrowest point (the Strait of Hormuz), the Gulf narrows to only 34 miles wide, with Iran
to the North and Oman to the south. The key passages through the Strait consist of 2-mile
wide channels for inbound and outbound tanker traffic, as well as a 2-mile wide buffer
zone.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly 40% of all world traded oil,
and the 17 MMBD or more of oil that normally are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz
goes eastwards to Asia (especially Japan, China, and India) and westwards (via the Suez
Canal, the Sumed pipeline). Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would require use of
longer alternate routes. Such routes are now limited to the approximately 5-million-bbl/d-
capacity East-West Pipeline across Saudi Arabia to the port of Yanbu, and the Abqaiq-
Yanbu natural gas liquids line across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, although the GCC
seems to have agreed to construct a new strategic pipeline through Oman to a port on the
Gulf of Oman.
Source: Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz by Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS.org, full PDF here
And a picture from another source:
Iran is in position to seriously threaten, perhaps even close the Strait of Hormuz for a short period of time if hostilities erupted between Iran and the West. Even worse, Iran could use its short and medium-range missiles to attack vulnerable oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf, potentially disrupting the production for years. Moreover, it isn't that hard to hit an oil supertanker. These ships are not designed to withstand missile attacks, mines or artillery hits. Even if Iran was hit hard by the West, it would probably continue to threaten all shipping in the Gulf, making it too dangerous for use by civilians ships.
Iran would of course suffer devastating losses (its refineries would be bombed, total oil/gas embargo would ruin its economy etc.), but this would actually play exactly into Russia's hands - it would further drive the oil/gas prices up.
Cordesman writes:
It would almost certainly lose far more than it gained from such a “war,” but nations often fail to act as rational bargainers in a crisis, particularly if attacked or if their regimes are threatened.
I imagine that a Western or Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities wouldn't be received well in Tehran and the country would retaliate by any means necessary, if only to show the world that it can.
So, this leaves the question how would Russia try to cause such a war.
In my opinion, it will further torpedo any attempts by the West to solve this thing via diplomacy - it will not support any serious sanctions or too hard resolutions by the UN Security Council. This serves the purpose of making the regime in Iran feel more secure and thus more stubborn. This is futher supported by Russian arms sales to Iran, in particular the sales of Russia's S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, and their assistance in transfer of nuclear technologies. It appears to be a cynical move by Moscow to make Tehran more intransigent - if the Iranian regime feels more safe from an attack, it will be even less willing to negotiate about its nuclear program. Deployment of advanced anti-aircraft systems would make Israeli strike even more difficult, which could force Israel to act faster than it would have otherwise.
Another possible gain is a greater dependence of post-war Iran on Russia. Russia would thus at least partially recover its lost influence in the region.
History gives us example that Russians have already used this strategy in the past, albeit for different reasons. Soviet misinformations and arms sales contributed to the 1967 Six-Days War and 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and its Arab neighbors, which forced the Arabs to depend more on the Soviet Union. Soviet support for Iraq and Iran helped to prolong the war between them.
Today, Russia has an objective and means to achieve it, so why should it behave differently? It has showed how willing it is to use oil/gas as a weapon. It's foreign policy is essentially opportunistic, it follows its interest with absolute cynicism - and that's not a moral judgment on my part, but a simple statement of fact.
---
To summarize this: Russia would profit from a war in the Middle East enormously. Oil prices would rise dramatically, filling Russian coffers with petrodollars and 'gasoeuros' again. This would allow Kremlin to continue in its military reforms and buildup, as well as welfare spending designed to keep the public firmly behind Putin or whoever is in charge.
In short, this isn't far-fetched at all. I am not saying there is a direct evidence, but I think I've demonstrated that it is in Russian interest. If the Russians decide to follow it or not, that's a big unknown here, but judging from the latest Russian moves it is probable they will follow it.
(and I am not the only one who thinks that:
Radio Free Europe:
)… By blocking sanctions, Moscow is trying to deprive the international community of any leverage against Tehran. In the short term, Moscow’s approach is anything but absurd. Sanctions would inevitably precipitate a catastrophe in the form of serious economic problems within Iran and Russia losing its influence in Europe, the Caucasus, and most Persian Gulf Arab states. Moscow could even find itself in a situation where its already limited options for asserting its importance would be reduced to following Nikita Khrushchev’s lamentable example in banging his shoe on the table at the United Nations.
… Kremlin really does want a war between the West and Iran. I can offer no other explanation for Moscow’s behavior, especially taking into account the fact that statements that Russia is emerging from economic crisis have no grounding in reality. On the other hand, a sharp rise in oil and gas prices as a result of such a war would enable Russia to emerge with full coffers from a crisis that has become a headache for the duo who personify “sovereign democracy” in Russia.
Full article here
Spoiler :
First one who calls me a Russophobe without refuting my points wins Dmitry Sidorov's award for aggressive ignorance