Elections in 2017

[Katie88]

Those 10% are people living in Istanbul, which is partly in Europe. Nationals of other countries, but with Turkish roots, usually aren't counted.

Not that Turkish nationalists in European countries is something we're all happy about...

Ah yes, silly me. I misread the comment's meaning.

 

[JohannaK]

With 95% of the vote counted and a record high turnout over 80%, the news are double: Anti-Catalan Ciutadans party has won, with 36 seats and 25% of the vote. The other news is that independentist parties have secured a majority again, with a total 70 seats and 47.5% of the vote.

Rajoy's PP sinks to its all-time low with just 4 seats and 4% of the vote, a measly 1% above the required minimum to be in Parliament.

Everything has changed so nothing changes.

 

[AdrienIer]

So with independentists having a majority again, what is Rajoy going to do ? He's played all his cards now.

 

[uppi]

As expected, the elections didn't solve anything at all. Are we going to see an endless cycle of article 155 invocations and reelections?

Question: Does this election automatically transfer power back to the Catalan parliament and to a government it might elect? Or will imperialist rule continue unless the Spanish government explicitly says otherwise?

 

[Arakhor]

So if the largest party is a unionist one, how does affect that nationalists have a majority of the seats? Will Ciutadans put forward the regional leader?

 

[Arwon]

When the "largest party" has only 25% it's not really accurate to describe them as "winning". Gotta look at the makeup of the body as a whole in that situation.

 

[gangleri2001]

Highest turnout ever registered in Catalan elections (81,94%). C's wins the elections with 37 seats out of 135. However the combination of the three independentist parties (JxCat, ERC and CUP) gives a sum of 70 seats out of 135. All other parties combined gives a sum of 65 seats. This means that only independentists can form a government. Anti-independentist parties (C's, PSC and PP) end up with 57 out of 135 with a clear concentration of their vote on C's and the neutral party CeC with 8 seats, worsening their previous result of 11 seats.

 

[gangleri2001]

So if the largest party is a unionist one, how does affect that nationalists have a majority of the seats? Will Ciutadans put forward the regional leader?

No. Puigdemont will most likely keep the presidency if he can return to Catalonia without being arrested. He is in Belgium and we don't know if he can return while the number 2 in his party and the leader of ERC are still in jail.

 

[Verbose]

Question: Does this election automatically transfer power back to the Catalan parliament and to a government it might elect? Or will imperialist rule continue unless the Spanish government explicitly says otherwise?

As far as I understand, it does not. Spain remains a unitary state with diverse levels of regional self-rule, except it seems clear this does for the time being not quite apply to Catalonia, even with the elections. Madrid maintains control, and continues to push its prosecutions for uprising and dissension. There's a recent short-list of some 40 politicians and public figures that are to be detained. (Heck, the Spanish government seems to intend to interrogate Pep Guardiola, should he turn up, for having publicly endorsed Catalan independence.)

 

[Verbose]

When the "largest party" has only 25% it's not really accurate to describe them as "winning". Gotta look at the makeup of the body as a whole in that situation.

Well, Rajoy and the Partido Popular are the losers. That's about the clearest result. Ciudadanos lacks the historical-political baggage of the PP, and can be expected to take over as the dominant non-sociliast political party in Spain.

In a way it's a contest the about political legitimacy of the Spanish government on different levels. Rajoy has tried to solve a political confidence problem with repression and legalistic measures, and him and his part are losing politically from it.

 

[AdrienIer]

Rajoy has tried to solve a political confidence problem with repression and legalistic measures, and him and his part are losing politically from it.

That was my first reaction too, but Ciudadanos was in favor of even more repression and legalistic measures yet "won" the election.
Rajoy is expected to speak in 2h. It's going to set the tone for the next few weeks.

 

[Verbose]

That was my first reaction too, but Ciudadanos was in favor of even more repression and legalistic measures yet "won" the election.
Rajoy is expected to speak in 2h. It's going to set the tone for the next few weeks.

True, but they're not in the driver's seat. PP is. And PP has the Falangist baggage.

What it worryingly might indicate is that Spain outside Catalonia is all in favour of the dismissal of the independents movement to the point of the outright subjugation of Catalonia. If so, how that is expected to end well his beyond me. This is another turning of the screw, and whether it is late or early in a process remains to be seen.

 

[Arwon]

Well, Rajoy and the Partido Popular are the losers. That's about the clearest result. Ciudadanos lacks the historical-political baggage of the PP, and can be expected to take over as the dominant non-sociliast political party in Spain.

I don't think there's anything to indicate a full-scale replacement occurring outside of Catalonia. There's been a lot of defection with C's now polling 15% or so, but the PP are still polling like 30% themselves.

The PP within Catalonia have been marginal for a long time, they were on like 15% of the vote even 15 years ago. Their fairly angry centralism alienates a lot of the non-secessionists, too. There's a large chunk of voters who favour the current (or greater) decentralisation, and have a Catalan identity, these are voters the PP just cannot reach.

It's because of the PP's incompatibility that the non-socialist constituency used to be heavily with the CiU, which until 2010 was a centrist/liberal, vaguely nationalist but explicitly non-secessionist party. However, it must be said that the non-socialist constituency does overlap a fair bit with Catalan nationalism, and the CiU followed/led/moved with that core towards explicit secessionism.

These days the section of the non-socialist population which doesn't truck with nationalism and secession is presumably mostly with C's.

If I had to guess, C's may have also also picked up some of the stridently anti-nationalist left because the PSOE's local counterpart is a bit softer on the question than the fairly rabid anti-nationalist Ciudadanos. Locals might be able to correct or confirm this for me?

 

[JohannaK]

All of these seems fairly accurate, but Verbose is not totally wrong: wgile Ciudadanos walking out of Parliament to avoid voting to condemn the Francoist regime (something about rewriting history and letting the past rest some folks in Charlottesville could agree with) the massive massive uptick in turnout might mean that usually apolitical and less well informed voters are buying into Cs new face.

But also in spite of PP having always been marginal, this is their worst result ever and on the verge of extinction, which signals that the PP base in Catalonia has given up and jumped ship. Basically Cs has won because of unionist strategical voting, while traditional Socialist and Green federalists stick to their guns, which explains the Socialists stabilising and the rebranded Green-Podemos alliance descending back to historical Green vote levels.

That said, precisely because the Socialists are at a low point, the overtake that Podemos so longs for might still happen. I think PSC and CeCP are close enough to each other than the power dynamics in Spain as a whole could shift voters locally too. Traditionally, here as in so many other places, people change their vote dramatically depending on the level of government that is being elected, but the landscape hasnt finished shifting yet, so who knows.