It's the third candidacy for Marine Le Pen. She isn't exactly a new and exciting candidate, she has nothing to say which she didn't say already, and she will have a hard time to change the minds of the people who hate her. As a candidate she seems as appealing as Hillary Clinton with Donald Trumps demeanor. And for the election after this one, the experiences with Brexit and Trump will introduce a new bias on for right wing populists.
French presidential election 2017
- Thread starter AdrienIer
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Traitorfish
The Tighnahulish Kid
Can two men-slash-robots be president at the same time?
It might be one of those Air Bud situations, were nobody ever thought to rule it out.
caketastydelish
Deity
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don't they also have a vice president, like it is in the United States? Not sure the details of how it works in France.
edit: Also, considering France's revolutionary political history, they've done crazier things
edit: Also, considering France's revolutionary political history, they've done crazier things
Traitorfish
The Tighnahulish Kid
Well, three presidents, sure, that's practically tradition, but two is crazy talk.
(Also, apparently, the French don't have a vice-president, which is a bit of a surprise, given that their president has actual, tangible power. The president's immediate successor is the president of the senate, who the senators select from among themselves. Semi-presidential systems are weird, I guess.)
(Also, apparently, the French don't have a vice-president, which is a bit of a surprise, given that their president has actual, tangible power. The president's immediate successor is the president of the senate, who the senators select from among themselves. Semi-presidential systems are weird, I guess.)
Traitorfish
The Tighnahulish Kid
This is true; for example, Switzerland has seven, one for every segment of a standard-size Toblerone.
The second most important person is the prime minister (who has to be backed by the parliament), but he's not the first in line if something happens to the president. It's president-president of the senate-government as a whole (which in practice, if something were to happen to a lot of important political leaders, would probably make the line of succession prime minister-other ministers in the order of importance that they are given when their government was officialized). The person that gets to take the president's spot is not officially president though, they have one job which is to organize the new election in the next 35 days (although they do the everyday stuff until then I guess).
It's not super democratic actually, because the president of the senate is thrice removed from the electorate : he's elected by the senators among themselves, senators who are elected by "grands électeurs". "Grands électeurs" can be mayors (all mayors get to vote for their local senator), "conseillers départementaux" or unelected people selected by political parties. There are good reasons why several candidates for this election want to change the constitution : even without the discussions about modernizing the political process, there are bodies like the senate that completely undermine any attempt at making people feel more engaged in politics.
It's not super democratic actually, because the president of the senate is thrice removed from the electorate : he's elected by the senators among themselves, senators who are elected by "grands électeurs". "Grands électeurs" can be mayors (all mayors get to vote for their local senator), "conseillers départementaux" or unelected people selected by political parties. There are good reasons why several candidates for this election want to change the constitution : even without the discussions about modernizing the political process, there are bodies like the senate that completely undermine any attempt at making people feel more engaged in politics.
caketastydelish
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Like I said, the French have done crazier things.
Traitorfish
The Tighnahulish Kid
That's the wonderful thing about France: whatever madness occurs, you can always say to yourself, "well, they've done crazier".
This weekend Hamon and Melenchon are supposed to meet. I'm not sure what to expect to come out of their discussion, but what I hope is, at least, that they agree not to trash each other too much during the campaign, and that they'll make deals for the parliamentary elections in june. Meanwhile, the greens just voted for "cooperating" with Hamon, which probably means that their candidate will soon announce that he's stepping down. Interesting times.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Perhaps there is hope then. Though I don't quite trust Hamon to not become another Holande, he does seem to a candidate capable of winning if they can do some agreement.
GoodSarmatian
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You can probably say that about most European countries. Or all countries on the planet.
Intresting to see what's going to happen on this continent. If France and Germany go more left-wing after their 2017 elections, maybe we can get something actually useful done. A Tobin tax, a crackdown on corporate tax evasion, a roadmap to universal basic income. Good God ! I'm getting optimistic ! I hope it's not just my brain entering a manic phase (although, that would also be pretty nice).
Mélenchon just killed the talks before they even began. Before Hamon came back from Portugal he compared the socialist party to a hearse, and claimed that he "just learned" about Hamon's views on the EU (which have been public for months) and that it's a major divergence between them.
So Hamon decided to stop wasting his time with Mélenchon. There are some bad feelings between the communists and Mélenchon (despite them being his main support), so he might be able to bring them to his side and undermine Mélenchon that way.
So Hamon decided to stop wasting his time with Mélenchon. There are some bad feelings between the communists and Mélenchon (despite them being his main support), so he might be able to bring them to his side and undermine Mélenchon that way.
Akka
Moody old mage.
Well, at least it wouldn't be Fillon vs Le Pen. THAT is my nightmare scenario. As much contempt I have for Macron (and trust me, that's a lot), compared to this, Macron vs Le Pen doesn't look that bad
Nice that France also has 100 political parties, like we do
When will the candidacies be official?
Around mid march. As always there are between 50 and 100 people who want to be candidates, including monarchists and bonapartists, but only a dozen will meet the requirements. I'm hoping for Michèle Alliot Marie and Henri Gaino (both from Les republicains) to gather the necessary endorsements so they can take votes from Fillon
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Yes and no. His interest in the idea of a coalition was good. But from what I've seen and heard in the meanwhile, Hamon is in love with his idea of the EU, which is not really much differnet from the current one, and is one that: 1) I do not believe can work; 1) even if it did, I can't approve of. I'm afraid he'd do anything to shore it up were he president. And when it inevitably failed (for economic and political reasons I don't want to get into here, again), then Le Pen will have the Élysée - and a majority in the National Assembly!
The current socialist PM here in Portugal is pragmatic enough that he'd be out of the EU in an instant if he saw it crumbling. He's not in love with it, just believes that there is currently no alternative (a bad position imho, but at least he won't chain the country to a corpse). There are three reasons the current "coalition" here keeps together. Two are noticed by everyone: the right-wing opposition is led by people who are profoundly despised (from the former government), tourism has kept the economy afloat albeit with low-paying jobs (it'll crumble as soon as interest rates rise by even a couple percent, and the portuguese government no longer controls interest rates, the ECB does). The third is that all the politicians who believe the current situation unsustainable (the EU and its policies) are willing to do some quiet preparations now and wait for conditions to change abroad before breaking with the EU rather than go it alone. But even if France or Italy or the ECB (Germany...) don't bring it down this year, brexit will create an alternative in the next - then they'll demand action and this coalition will be put to the test.
Long story short: Hamon does not seem pragmatic enough about the EU to me. He holds it as some kind of "core value". Now Melenchon has publicly challenged him: the EU or France? Hamon can reply that the EU must change radically, or France will be out. But he won't: he's in love with the idea of EU so much that he'll rather lose he election that create a coalition.
If Hamon were like the socialist leader here, he'd always equivocate and avoid profess any loyalty to the EU. Publicly show that he wasn't personally committed to the idea of the EU. But it's too late for that I'm afraid.
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It is going to be Macron vs Le Pen, and Macron will win. As I said, France could certainly do a lot worse than Macron, even though he is far from ideal. And Fillon, for his immoral nepotism and mixing of family and public affairs, totally deserves all the crap he is getting.
But it still leaves a very bad taste in my mounth. The facts his wife are being accused of (being Fillon's parliamentary assistant but not really showing up for work) happened between 1998 and 2002, and then between 2002 and 2007. So the last year was freakin' 10 years ago. That she was his parliamentary assistant was public record, not exactly concealed. But neither the press nor the parquet bothered investigating anything. Only weeks before the election, after Fillon had already won the LR primary and it was too late for them to change candidates, did the press jump on the case, followed enthusiastically by the parquet. And Fillon, who was all but sure to win the presidency, won't even make it to the second round.
If the press and public authorities thought this was important and published and prosecuted it years ago as they should, or at least before the primaries, Juppé would be on track to beat Le Pen on the second round. But neither Le Canard Enchaîné nor the parquet really cared about the facts; they cared about getting the right-wing candidate out of the race.
It's Banana Republic politics at its worst.
But it still leaves a very bad taste in my mounth. The facts his wife are being accused of (being Fillon's parliamentary assistant but not really showing up for work) happened between 1998 and 2002, and then between 2002 and 2007. So the last year was freakin' 10 years ago. That she was his parliamentary assistant was public record, not exactly concealed. But neither the press nor the parquet bothered investigating anything. Only weeks before the election, after Fillon had already won the LR primary and it was too late for them to change candidates, did the press jump on the case, followed enthusiastically by the parquet. And Fillon, who was all but sure to win the presidency, won't even make it to the second round.
If the press and public authorities thought this was important and published and prosecuted it years ago as they should, or at least before the primaries, Juppé would be on track to beat Le Pen on the second round. But neither Le Canard Enchaîné nor the parquet really cared about the facts; they cared about getting the right-wing candidate out of the race.
It's Banana Republic politics at its worst.
