Lillefix
I'm serious. You can.
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2003
- Messages
- 5,699
With a constant threat of terrorism and with only weak, divisive or extreme candidates it is surprising.
French presidential election 2017
- Thread starter AdrienIer
- Start date
With a constant threat of terrorism and with only weak, divisive or extreme candidates it is surprising.
The high participation in urban areas and places that usually vote for the left makes me hopeful. Same for the low participation in the Pas de Calais, a FN stronghold. On the other hand I'm following the feed from Le Monde and there are too many people claiming to vote Fillon (many of them choosing him at the last moment) in there, it makes me nervous.
Cheetah
Deity
I of course find the latter deeply problematic, but in all fairness, don't know whether Melenchon would do "nothing to help them", since as far as I know he has never been in a position to make that choice.
It's certainly the most exciting election of the year.
We're starting to see the first estimates get out (Belgian and Swiss newspaper are not obligated to wait until 20:00 to give poll numbers and estimations). La Libre Belgique says it's Macron 24%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20.5% and Melenchon 18%. But it's very early, and the Swiss and Belgian newspaper were off by quite a lot during the primaries so I wouldn't be too confident about those numbers.
From their 2012 votes, only Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthelemy are right wing out of those overseas territories. Martinique for example was over 50% for Hollande in the first round (and 26% for Sarkozy, less than 5% for Le Pen).
Here's the link for La Libre Belgique, they're giving results for those territories (but I have no idea if they're true or not)
http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/p...tie-des-urnes-direct-58fc8a6ecd70e80513061a54
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Akka
Moody old mage.
It's forbidden to give any result before the voting booths are closed, so I doubt it.
Why would you want a map ? The results are national.
Also the final results won't be known until very late in the night. What we'll get at 20:00 (or perhaps a bit later) is a prediction of results based on the first results and on today's polls
Also the final results won't be known until very late in the night. What we'll get at 20:00 (or perhaps a bit later) is a prediction of results based on the first results and on today's polls
Because it's interesting to know how different parts of a country are voting, and how that has changed over time. I spent a long time after the US 2016 election going through the county maps and noting differences between 2012 and 2016. Like, for instance, a number of working-class Obama voters defected to Trump (or failed to show up while non-voting people in 2012 showed up to vote Trump 2016 - same difference), while the places that voted more heavily for Hillary than Obama tended to be affluent suburban counties (e.g. Chester County, PA or Orange County, CA), college towns, and a few cities with high Hispanic proportions (but not Hispanic rural areas).
I spent a while looking over the Leave vs Remain map in the UK, too. You learn a lot about the political microgeography of places by looking at their election maps. So if you know of anything showing subnational returns at regional or even better department scale, that would give us election nerds a lot of information.
Also, if different places start reporting their votes earlier than others, you can get some idea of how the final results will look based on the initial reporting percentages.
Christian magazine La Croix had one in 2012. They apparently intend to do it again this time :
http://www.la-croix.com/France/Poli...le-2017-carte-resultats-2017-04-23-1200841661
Edit : Hmmm apparently the page now needs you to subscribe to the magazine if you want to see it.
Edit edit : Their website says that visitors are allowed to view 5 pages a month for free, so perhaps I just exceeded that number at one point. I hope you guys will be able to use their map.
Edit n°3 : Other link for a map, but this one won't give you the 2012 results to compare them with. https://actu.fr/politique/presidentielle-2017-tous-resultats-commune-par-commune_848945.html
http://www.la-croix.com/France/Poli...le-2017-carte-resultats-2017-04-23-1200841661
Edit : Hmmm apparently the page now needs you to subscribe to the magazine if you want to see it.
Edit edit : Their website says that visitors are allowed to view 5 pages a month for free, so perhaps I just exceeded that number at one point. I hope you guys will be able to use their map.
Edit n°3 : Other link for a map, but this one won't give you the 2012 results to compare them with. https://actu.fr/politique/presidentielle-2017-tous-resultats-commune-par-commune_848945.html
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Yep, I can see both of those. Thanks!
Cheetah
Deity
First counts indicate:
23.7% Macron
21.7% Le Pen
19.5% for both Fillon and Melenchon
23.7% Macron
21.7% Le Pen
19.5% for both Fillon and Melenchon
Kraznaya
Princeps
Congrats Macron and Bootstoots 
Cheetah
Deity
And Hamon just endorsed Macron!
While that isn't unreasonable, I'm very confused about the timing. Just right after the polls close? What was wrong with tomorrow?
While that isn't unreasonable, I'm very confused about the timing. Just right after the polls close? What was wrong with tomorrow?
Kraznaya
Princeps
I mean, consider the other option...
It's a common practice. Also the PS did a meeting today, where I think they discussed the possible outcomes and what their position would be.
Jean-Pierre Raffarin, one of the leaders of the left wing of LR also said that he wanted people to vote Macron, and then vote LR in the parliamentary elections in june.
Two different polling companies give two different estimations. One gives the numbers Cheetah gave, the other gives Le Pen and Macron at 23% and Fillon and Melenchon at 19%.
Cheetah
Deity
Ah, ok. Still seems very early to me, but if it's a tradition.
Yeah, I know it's not over yet, but it's looking reasonably hopeful.
Akka
Moody old mage.
What makes it weird is that it's only estimations so far, and even if there is very very little chances of a big reversal, it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities.
Kraznaya
Princeps
Found this graphic very interesting.
I've dumped all my Melenchons at $0.01 and about half my Fillons. Hope that wasn't premature - all exit polls strongly hint at Macron-Le Pen but I'm not yet totally comfortable given the narrow margins.
