Global warming strikes again...

I don't disagree that both sides are using scaremongering, but you are clearly dodging the argument at hand right now. I'm certain you know full well as I do that the wealthiest countries on this planet will definitely not starve because we change our energy policy to "green". Hell, I'm actually 100% certain that no one in the world would have to starve if we focused less on meat and more on certain grains. Not that I'm advocating vegetarianism or even practicing, but it's just a fact that you need hundreds, maybe thousand times the resources to feed someone with meet as opposed to grains or vegetables. So we both agree your point on starvation is moot?.
I am not dodging; you are taking something out of context. Angst is claiming radical measures are needed. I was pointing out that food production and distribution would be severely hampered by radical measures. That is a fact, not scaremongering. Climate change is real and the need to deal with it is real. However, drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage has dubious efficacy and strong negative consequences.

Progress has been made in many areas, particularly clean air and water. Focus on the issues at hand and not the distant future.

J
 
We will not be at that point for many generations. Why bring it up at all?

It is one thing to be a good steward of resources. It's another to talk of disaster around the corner. Let's try to be more rational.

J

I wouldn't call 100 years "many generations". There's probably a couple of us on this site that will be alive to see the modern lifestyle put at risk if we don't shape up. Our grandchildren certainly will. Not everyone will die, we've obviously advanced past that point, but ideally I'd like to see cities remain on the land instead of being swallowed by the ocean, for mass climate migration to not need to happen, and for our ability to continue advancing to remain intact regardless of our wastefulness or resource consumption.

While you will certainly meet the hippies that recommend using your bath water for boiling your vegetables and to reuse the plastic grocery bag you got 20 years ago, the more serious figures in academia and climate science don't advocate for a severe reversion of our lifestyles. They advocate for developing technology and practices that negate the impact on the environment. Being wasteful with water, for example, is a nonfactor if your home is outfitted with a recycling system and the city water system receives modern overhauls. Eating a meat-heavy diet is a nonfactor if your meat is in-vitro instead of grown on a pasture. Leaving all your electronics on is a nonfactor if the energy being produced isn't from a finite resource.

You say to be rational when that is exactly what we're being. We're encouraging a switch over from dangerous practices that will come back to bite us in the rear to practices that will be sustainable for centuries to come. Wind and solar is not going anywhere. If we can fight back against the stigma, nuclear is not going anywhere. Other methods of energy generation are being thought up of and tested as we speak all in the hope that we may not be dependent on natural gas, coal, oil, or another dirty form of energy in the future.

What do you envision happening once the climate crisis truly rears its head, Jay? Serious question. You seem to be operating under the assumption that the very worst that's coming in the future due to our abuse of the environment will just be a minor wallet hit and maybe a wee bit of an irregular winter/summer cycle. There are locations of the planet, today, that are becoming uninhabitable or are seriously altering the local eco system. This will continue. Several coastal regions will cease to exist, people from across the planet will be forced into migrating across borders in a world where such a thing is a crime, and our use of finite resources is still increasing instead of decreasing when we know, without a shadow of a doubt, that it's a finite resource. We've poked holes in our ozone layer, polluted our oceans to the extent that we have a giant flotilla of trash in the Pacific, have destroyed a majority of our coral reefs to the point that we need to create artificial ones out of concrete and debris, and have such an extreme need for meat that it's becoming impossible to cultivate livestock in a humane manner due to the demand.

What do you think all this will culminate into, exactly? You seem cognizant that climate change is real, that we need to improve, but you don't seem to actually be in support of anything that actualizes either of those things. You seem to think we can do better, maybe, eventually. Not a big deal, though. Do you see it as a situation where you'll be dead when it matters so you don't have to care?
 
I was pointing out that food production and distribution would be severely hampered by radical measures.

Progress has been made in many areas, particularly clean air and water. Focus on the issues at hand and not the distant future.

J

No, you were not. You literally said people would starve. I don't even doubt that food production would be severely hampered...

The only issue at hand that I mentioned was starvation, I did not debate anything else.
 
No. Simply not. Consensus is qualitative, not quantitative. Start to get specific about numbers and there are normal levels of dispute.

Consensus is qualitative, not quantitative. Lol. So if I, personally, educate myself as a climate scientist, or any scientist ofr that matter, and post a document denying climate change, climate change is "disputed"? Just no. You're just wrong. Read the literature. It's true that there are different qualified guesses about the extent of our overreach, but the consensus is that there is overreach, and that it will most probably have very destructive effects. That's not translatable at all to what you're saying.

Obstacles to new power plants and refineries are beyond excessive. Ethanol is another, particularly in conjunction with emissions mandates.

What power plants? What obstacles? What refineries? You're being incredibly vague.

The best course is not to go radically green. Massive starvation lies down that road. Green is rarely competitive. It's often one of the major obstacles to being competitive.

J

Starvation: The world will not starve if we use the current food resources properly. There is more than enough food for everyone. The problem is that food production is incredibly wasteful by virtue of meat production. We eat much more meat than we need to. If food production was balanced towards less meat production, we'd practically swim in fish and vegetables.
Of course, you can dispute whether this is particularly radical. You probably read into my statement that we go 100% organic, which decreases production. And I agree, that will probably be problematic. But the current food production system is incredibly wasteful (so is the amount of food thrown out each day). There is more than enough food to feed everyone if we change our eating habits to something perfectly appropriate to our metabolism, cutting severly down on meat.

Competition: Refer to the above poster. It's going to be difficult to compete if you're dead, if your country gains a Siberian climate, if mass migrations become a thing, if the US develops dust storms... There are enough prognoses that foresee very problematic consequences that you should be worried, regardless of what you describe the consensus as being.

EDIT: Actually @Vincour's post is better than what I could come up with. Even where we disagree.
 
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Not all that good really. Let me explain... Back when I joined the US army, in the summer of whatever, I was sent down to Louisiana for training. Note that it was summer, because that is an important bit in this narrative. It was hot, it was humid, we were stomping around the friggin swamps down there in our "fatigues". Think long, heavy OD green pants and shirts, and not cut offs and shirts with palm trees and **** on them. First lesson: Comfort is not a priority. So we were out training 'in the field' which is to say we camped in a central camp cut out of the swamp/jungle where our heavy OD green tents were. In the center of the camp was a set up like a swing set, two A frames connected by a cross bar. Biggest swing set ever, but no actual swings. Hanging from the cross bar were two things that looked like huge duffle bags with spickets at the bottom. These were filled to the top with drinking water. Every day a truck came and pumped them full. So we would go stomping around, getting all sweaty, learning different stuff which hasn't come into play in my life since, other than never, never join the army. Too late. So I would get sweaty and miserable, but completed every exercise. Lots of folks would 'drop out' of our marches, as long as 20 miles, from place to place to do different stuff like crossing snake filled bayou on two ropes, one up one down. Don't think too bad of the army for doing this. For safety they sent along a drill sargent with an M16 to shoot snakes. That was nice of them. Plus, having the guy that was yelling at us locked and loaded was good for morale. Less complaints anyway. I felt sorry for myself, I was just young. I felt even more sorry for the two friggin Eskimos that were training along side us, US army trainees. They were in hell those poor guys. Felt sorry for them until one morning when they were caught immersed in the drinking water duffle's up to their ears. Even with all the miserable crap the army thought of to throw at us we had still found time to complain about the 'funny' taste to the water. Now we knew. We had been drinking Eskimo tea.​
Holy **** that's awful and disgusting. I don't want to join the army here and it's much better than what you describe.
 
No, you were not. You literally said people would starve. I don't even doubt that food production would be severely hampered...The only issue at hand that I mentioned was starvation, I did not debate anything else.
People are already starving. It would get worse to much worse. Your boat has too many holes to float.

100 years is multiple generations away. You could use it as an example of non-urgent. It is also beyond the foreseeable future.

Starvation: The world will not starve if we use the current food resources properly. There is more than enough food for everyone. The problem is that food production is incredibly wasteful by virtue of meat production. We eat much more meat than we need to. If food production was balanced towards less meat production, we'd practically swim in fish and vegetables.
That is an if you can float a supertanker through. If we distributed food properly now, everyone would have a 4000 Calorie diet. That is how much food we are raising. Yet there is hunger.

You are positing world rule without stating it. Fiats should be up front.

BTW I grow organic produce.

J
 
I'm glad to hear you're growing organic produce, but I'm not sure how much it matters. It's good you do because I like my organic produce cheap. EDIT: In fact, it's very good you do! But I have to stress that I don't mind conventional production per se. When I say green now, I mean green as in environmentally friendly, and conventional production can do that somewhat if we focus on vegetables rather than meat.

Increased food production doesn't need a supertanker. I can point to Denmark, our resources are basically oil and foodstuffs, rest of the economy is sustained through a highly specialized workforce. In fact, the land is kind of bad for farming, and the country is too cold to be properly farmable. Yet we produce more than enough for ourselves to survive. The solution to starvation isn't to redirect Danish food to Africa through a tanker, but to have Africa grow its own food. Europe and the US both have the capabilities to go green, and that will decrease emissions significantly, in fact, it would probably allow African farmers to mechanize more, allowing for more food production, and green technologies could be exported to developing nations. Even so, there is a swathe of supertanker transport already happening for stuff as cheap as t-shirts because transportation is so cheap. And a lot of starvation problems have to do with local lack of specialization (ie if everyone grows food, noone will have a possibility to sell their food, even in starvation as they can't gain money to begin with, this also means there is very little ma), corruption and other problems that have very little connection to black industry. They really have very little to do with actual green development. And I'm unsure what you're claiming I say about world rule. In fact, many developed as well as developing nations are aware of the problems with industrialization and want to work with the rest of the world, but as long as eg the US don't want to cooperate (and that because of attitudes like yours EDIT: This sounded prissy, but you know what I mean), they have much less incentive to follow through.

This was kind of a mess, but I've begun to do work on my exams.
 
It all comes down to population. Find effective, non intrusive population control methods and get world pop back to a billion or so. All of a sudden all the problems go away. All the man made ones anyway. Pollution would be sustainable. Social problems would be fixed as folks could more easily pick up and move if stuff bugged them. The Earth would still warm and cool but that's been going on for a while now.
 
That's not true in any shape or fashion.

Good luck killing 6 billion people in a non-intrusive way, though.
 
We were talking above scaremongering and you provide a nice example. Thanks.

J

Even if your conception of scaremongering, it doesn't make sense to call this scaremongering. It was a pointing out of an impossibility. It's not the same.
 
We were talking above scaremongering and you provide a nice example. Thanks.

J

???

Cavlancer suggested we cull the human population so there's only a billion of us left. There's seven billion of us, therefore that would require the culling of six billion people, no? I am sure we are all of sufficient mental faculties in this thread to grasp that simple metric.

You still haven't answered my post, by the way, since you're doing a drive-by one-liner.
 
People are already starving. It would get worse to much worse. Your boat has too many holes to float.

100 years is multiple generations away. You could use it as an example of non-urgent. It is also beyond the foreseeable future.

I realize that people are starving, but not in first world countries, no? Which was our topic of debate. People starving in the first world. I will even quote my first post for you:

>We definitely would have to cut down on energy, food production and many other amenities, but the "first world" is never starving again. That is for sure.

I never said there was no starvation, or that there will be no starvation, simply that there is and will be no starvation in the first world. Also the first world is really the only relevant talking point, since developing countries are not likely to do any "green energy" reforms in the next few years, no?

Just out of curiosity: What are you growing? That's really cool. I myself want to get into it. I'm growing a few herbs here and there and have some Physalis plants, they're my favorite. I've also done mushrooms for some time. That's pretty much as far as you can go without a garden :D
 
I completely agree with your point. But there is a good reason naming it climate change over global warming, because otherwise deniers will build the wrong ideas from a misnamed concept. It's about conceptual accuracy for better integration of the facts.

Global warming causes climate change, we can tell if the world is warming easier than I can detect changes in our climate here, so I was baffled by the switch in terminology. But more than that, are these climate changes good or bad? Overall?

I'd have to admit the world does better when its warmer.

Our problem will be melting ice and rising seas. I suggest we explore the possibility of lowering sea level by expanding ocean surface where we can without too much disruption before 1 or 3 billion people gotta leave their coastal homes. Maybe a damn along a coastal ridge line between the sea and a sparsely populated depression. And thats just to give us time, we'll need to build sunscreens for orbit and paint more of the world in bright colors. Follow the yellow brick road :)
 
We were talking above scaremongering and you provide a nice example. Thanks.

J

Aint it the truth? I specified non intrusive and now I'm "killing people". What I had in mind is more along the lines of cash payments for ladies who get to retirement age without ever having a kid. Could be a social security type thing with a very small payment by both men and women but received only by women.
 
Aint it the truth? I specified non intrusive and now I'm "killing people". What I had in mind is more along the lines of cash payments for ladies who get to retirement age without ever having a kid. Could be a social security type thing with a very small payment by both men and women but received only by women.

How do you plan on removing six billion people within 2-3 generations without murdering them?
 
I have a dash of Celtic blood. We're like the Chinese, we plan in billions of years.
 
So your plan for solving the impending climate crisis is by enacting strategies that will come to fruition centuries after it's too late. Gotcha. Carry on.
 
Absolutely! The climate crisis will be solved only by huge space based mirrors increasing the sun's rays on the poles to try to reduce glacier growth over the coming 90,000 period of glaciation.
 
There are not enough :rolleyes: smileys on the entire internet to express my opinion of how this thread is not progressing anywhere sensible.
 
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