Global warming strikes again...

[Bootstoots]

We should find a way to turn the sun off.

What we need is a dimmer switch, but we can't seem to find one. There's a bad idea that involves sulfate aerosols though.

 

[CavLancer]

The whole point of climate as opposed to weather is that you can't know much about global climate by analyzing the weather in one place next spring. If you average ~30 springs together in the same place, you will then know something about the climate in that place. And if you average the whole world and keep a running average, then you know something about the world's climate and how it is changing.

I'm not really willing to bother debating this right now, but instead I'll give you a tip on where to pick your cherries. If you want to really prove the warmists wrong, I strongly suggest you focus on a region in the North Atlantic south of Iceland, at about 55 degrees north. That's one of the only places in the world that is cooling rather than warming, and really the only spot that is especially consistent about the cooling. It has to do with the slowdown of the (warm) Gulf Stream (and the whole thermohaline circulation). But we are really sure now that the slowdown will be gradual and will not stop abruptly even with rapid global warming, so that's a good thing, especially if you happen to be from Yerp and would rather that cold spot not spread east and engulf you. And we're really really sure that The Day After Tomorrow is terrible Hollywood [feces] that has nothing to do with reality.

Thank you Boots, always a gentleman. Regarding the "running average", what if the governments offered scientists money, grants, to prove global warming? Are they above being paid to play? Have you ever stopped to wonder why the University of East Anglia fudged those numbers? They were the ones who got caught. So if one throws out the data on all the ones paid to find warming, who is left? I guess you got myself and Civman, and so nice to find a like thinking soul btw civ. The problem is, they haven't paid me. The oil companies haven't paid me, and I don't easily buy into government BS. Sure, there was cooling in the 70s when all that hysteria started getting ramped up, and warming in the 90s. The whole premise is built on something, but its natural cycles and not a couple hundred parts of CO2 in a million, that's almost laughable, had it not cost the human race an absolute fortune. So you see perhaps that the notion of all that recent warming is so much hockey stick, and it might be getting hard for paid to play scientists to find warming. In fact it is since when the "pause' happened they had to invent deep sea warming to explain it away. Talk about laughable! Yet they stuck a thermometer down there and low and behold it came up showing heat! Who would have thunk it? So, if its been cooling, well then, eventually it will become a little hard to prove warming, and I believe that will occur this coming winter or next spring. You see there are a lot of folks not getting paid, and they are able to take independent readings. They have not moved their thermometers into the city, and I choose to listen to them. If I'm right to do so or wrong I think it will soon be shown in a manner that is hard to refute, even by those paid to do so. Now folks like yourself are accepting of the official #s and that's fine. If this is proven to be BS as I suspect, don't forget to not be so polite, and get madder than hell.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Atmospheric warming and cooling is correlated with solar activity, not C02.

Of course the Sun's cycles affect the weather and climate (note to the skeptics: weather and climate are not the same).

But I've got pictures in my photo album that were taken over 45 years ago in the Rocky Mountains (Canadian Rockies) of some mountains that used to sport some very noticeable glaciers.

Where are those glaciers now? They're significantly smaller, and there's a lot of bare mountain that used to be covered in a thick sheet of ice.

Drowned polar bears aren't found only every 11 years. They're a sad wake up call that there is not enough pack ice up there to support the Arctic's largest land predator. Too many cubs have drowned because they're just not strong enough to swim the increasing distances between ice floes. Some adults have had to swim for days to find ice floes that will support them. Their cubs don't make it.

 

[El_Machinae]

Keep in mind, the 'solar system heating up' (which is not true, btw*) is independent of whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

*Remember, systems are always changing. So, in any period of time, a climate of a planet is either warming or cooling. IF the causes of warming are internal to the planets (internal to themselves), then at any given point in time, we'd expect roughly half the planets to be undergoing a warming cycle and the other half undergoing a cooling cycle. Importantly, we could then look for a cause of the different cycles.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Thank you Boots, always a gentleman. Regarding the "running average", what if the governments offered scientists money, grants, to prove global warming? Are they above being paid to play? Have you ever stopped to wonder why the University of East Anglia fudged those numbers? They were the ones who got caught. So if one throws out the data on all the ones paid to find warming, who is left? I guess you got myself and Civman, and so nice to find a like thinking soul btw civ. The problem is, they haven't paid me.

CavLancer, Climate gate was debunked 7 years ago
If you dont trust Factcheck, you can google any of the numerous news / media reports explaining Climate-gate data

E-mails being cited as “smoking guns” have been misrepresented. For instance, one e-mail that refers to “hiding the decline” isn’t talking about a decline in actual temperatures as measured at weather stations. These have continued to rise, and 2009 may turn out to be the fifth warmest year ever recorded. The “decline” actually refers to a problem with recent data from tree rings.

the e-mails that are being held up as “smoking guns” have been misrepresented by global-warming skeptics eager to find evidence of a conspiracy. And even if they showed what the critics claim, there remains ample evidence that the earth is getting warmer.

Even as the affair was unfolding, the World Meteorological Organization announced on Dec. 8 that the 2000-2009 decade would likely be the warmest on record, and that 2009 might be the fifth warmest year ever recorded. (The hottest year on record was 1998.) This conclusion is based not only on the CRU data that critics are now questioning, but also incorporates data from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). All three organizations synthesized data from many sources.


http://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate/

 

[CavLancer]

Convenient isn't it Friendly? Sure, all that conspiracy is hard to swallow and if it doesn't turn irrefutably cold soon I'll admit my mistake.

There are always going to be cycles within cycles. This is what's examined when doing advanced statistics. To assume trapped heat simply disappears in the ecosystem is magical thinking. The heat has to go somewhere

Exactly, or it doesn't exist in the first place. "The pause" gave me pause and reinforced my viewpoint. The CO2 was skyrocketing, and at first they denied that things had leveled out, but then the evidence became irrefutable they had to find it deep under the surface of the ocean. Never had done that before. Now the warming had stopped even though they had moved the equipment into the cities where the heat island effect could skew the #s, so it had in fact cooled considerably. Here was a total and absolute disconnect between CO2 and temps, and they couldn't have that because that was the surface upon which the house of cards was built.

 

[El_Machinae]

Er, you disbelieve that there's been warming because they found a large portion of the missing heat?

 

[CavLancer]

I like the term 'warming', because that's what it is. The heat will be retained, and then some natural process will then take up that heat. Whether it's in the form of melting, or whether certain currents get warmer, or whatever.

Given how much possibility there is in the ocean being where the heat goes, sealevel rise is a real longterm threat.

During interglacials the trend is for receding glaciers and ocean level rise to go alone with the predominant warming temps which cause this. Its a natural cycle. There are periods of time during the interglacial when this trend is reversed, and things get cold again and glaciers increase. For example the Maunder minimum. That is what many expect when they see the sun going blank as it hasn't done for an age. In other words a cooling period in a natural warming cycle. On the flip side, the 90,000 year periods of glaciation, the glaciers increase and the melt of summer decreases, all due to a greater trend of cooling. During this trend there are warm times, cycles within cycles.

The normal temps for this planet are much cooler than they are currently in kinda the same way 90,000 years is longer than 11,000. These are abnormally warm times due to the natural melting cycle known as the interglacial, which is 11,500 years old. So, I kinda wonder if this might be the beginning of the next period of glaciation instead of the beginning of the next Maunder. Either way, don't worry about the ice. It will (continue to) rebound, if I'm right. I got a lot of geologic record on my side, you have the CO2. Good luck with that and may the best theory win.

We should find a way to turn the sun off.

No worries! While 'off' is not going to happen any time soon, the sun is decreasing its output during solar cycle 24 and 25 is supposed to flat line. 'We' don't have to do anything!

 

[FriendlyFire]

Exactly, or it doesn't exist in the first place. "The pause" gave me pause and reinforced my viewpoint. The CO2 was skyrocketing, and at first they denied that things had leveled out, but then the evidence became irrefutable they had to find it deep under the surface of the ocean. Never had done that before. Now the warming had stopped even though they had moved the equipment into the cities where the heat island effect could skew the #s, so it had in fact cooled considerably. Here was a total and absolute disconnect between CO2 and temps, and they couldn't have that because that was the surface upon which the house of cards was built.

Scientific conclusions have to be based on facts and observations
Where are you getting these weird ideas of falsifying temperature data in cities from ?

While hiatus periods have appeared in surface-air temperature records, other components of the climate system associated with warming have continued. Sea level rise has not stopped in recent years,[26] and Arctic sea ice decline has continued. There have been repeated records set for extreme surface temperatures

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus

 

[CavLancer]

If future scientific discoveries/wisdom results in a change to the consensus, and global warming doesn't end up happening, that won't retroactively make you right to have ignored the current scientific consensus. If you say that there's a 100% chance of rolling a 6, and you then roll a 6, that doesn't mean you were right.

As I said, I don't expect those who were wrong to congratulate those of us who had it right. Unless its me that's wrong, I have no problem admitting my mistakes.

Scientific conclusions have to be based on facts and observations
Where are you getting these weird ideas of falsifying temperature data in cities from ?

Read up on 'the pause'. Interesting stuff. Also, get a degree then submit to a university that you want a grant to prove global warming and when they say, welcome to the club, tell them you made a mistake, you want a grant to prove global cooling. Then come tell me there's no conclusion already arrived at. Believe me, I spent half a decade getting my degree! <---That was a joke.

What we need is a dimmer switch, but we can't seem to find one. There's a bad idea that involves sulfate aerosols though.

The sun has control of the switch. It was turned up for a while, now its being turned way down.

Er, you disbelieve that there's been warming because they found a large portion of the missing heat?

No, I just didn't buy that the heat was doing something it had never done before.

I think I've gotten to all the replies I feel like doing for now. So, see you next time.

 

[El_Machinae]

No, I just didn't buy that the heat was doing something it had never done before.

Got absorbed by water that then proceeded along its normal course of descending? That's kinda what El Nino and La Nina do, but opposite.

It's absolutely guaranteed that CO2 will cause heat retention. It's simple chemistry. The real questions are finding where the heat goes, and then extrapolating trends and extrapolating modifications to known cycles.

 

[CavLancer]

Don't you sleep El Mach? The rest get quiet as 2 year olds at kindergarten nappy time, and the teacher... well she gets a moment's peace. Except of course there's always one... For me its 2:30 PM in the afternoon. What's your excuse? Have some warm milk and turn in why don't ya?

 

[onejayhawk]

CavLancer, Climate gate was debunked 7 years ago
If you dont trust Factcheck, you can google any of the numerous news / media reports explaining Climate-gate data

If you believe the statements of people with a vested interest. No one ever believes oil companies in comparable situations.

J

 

[CavLancer]

Jay, this is either mass guilt or some kind of con, or it might evfen be real. Stranger things have happened I suppose.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

It's the liberals who treat global warming like it's some sort of religion that they must put their blind faith into because their political moral authority told them so. You're the modern day flat earther.

I assure you that I am well aware that the world is not flat. It's really tiresome to be told that environmentalism is a religion. It reminds me of a certain YouTube video made by Megan Fox, Creationist Mom, who "audits" museums and natural history facilities and comes up with such gems regarding evolution as "How do they know? Where's the videotape? I want to see the videotape!" and she flipped out over a sign asking visitors to put their plastic bottles or pop cans in the recycling bins. She went into a rant about recycling being some sort of religion and people who don't do it are considered "bad." I feel sorry for her kids who are being force-fed this attitude. She homeschools them.

Don't you sleep El Mach? The rest get quiet as 2 year olds at kindergarten nappy time, and the teacher... well she gets a moment's peace. Except of course there's always one... For me its 2:30 PM in the afternoon. What's your excuse? Have some warm milk and turn in why don't ya?

Wow. That's rude.

I dropped out of the conversation to tend to my NaNoWriMo writing. It's just after 1 am here, and I've got no particular reason to hurry off to bed right away.

 

[CavLancer]

Not meant to be rude. What's with all the negative waves Valka?

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Not meant to be rude. What's with all the negative waves Valka?

I call it as I see it.

 

[Synobun]

Out of curiosity, CavLancer, why are you so insistent on being open to being proven wrong when anything that strays from a very simplistic, narrow claim/understanding of climate change is simply hand-waved away as some deep-rooted conspiracy against the masses?

Not only is that defeatist, but wouldn't this conspiracy be rather pointless? The nefarious bigwigs in the environmentalism cult are trying to get us to use sustainable practices and renewable resources so we're not reliant on finite assets. Truly, we have never witnessed such great evil in our midst. Might give Pol Pot a run for his money, aye?

 

[Cheetah]

Yeah, of all the stupid arguments against global warming, I've never understand how scientists are supposed to profit from spreading a "lie" about how us polluting is ruining our environment...

 

[Kyriakos]

Seasons have been very messed up for more than 15 years now, that is for certain. Spring and Autumn tend to disappear as well.