Of course. The French economy is neither like the German/Dutch economies nor like the Southern economies. Generally, it is rather balanced but has lost out a bit against the Northern economies over the past years. The detoriation of the French current account balance speaks volumes about it. So do bond rates, unemployment and other indicators. If Southern Europe leaves, France will have to decide if it wants to stay in one boat with the Germans et al. or if it wants to lead Southern Europe. There are points to be made for either side. A Hollande victory in the French elections next month may change the odds.
That is also my view. France will be the state to decide the end of the Euro. The other southern states are delaying for as long as possible, perhaps out of pure folly or fear, but I'm getting the idea that there is a growing expectation of a "southern Euro" as a fix.
Also, is it an account with a German bank in Germany? If so, your deposits will almost certainly get converted into Euros in the event of a Euro crash (Zwangskonvertierung). Check the general terms and conditions of that account carefully.
I wouldn't thing of that for Germany. But I am expecting it to happen in the countries leaving the Euro in order to devalue its currency. The situation of Germany is, for the time being, the opposite.
I believe a separation of Greece is the most probable scenario. Nobody will want that, but in the end there's not much options for them. Italy will be saved, despite their corruption level, by a (somewhat) strengthening world economy.
There is absolutely no way it can be contained to Greece. There are two separate problems, each of which is enough to cause the collapse of the Euro, and they affect multiple counties. One is the continuous very negative current accounts balances of certain countries, which can only be fixed
without serous political turmoil through devaluation of a
national currency. The other, more serious and widespread (though easier to fix if there was the will to do it) is the huge
interest-bearing national debts. Fixing that second problem is done by suspending payment of interest (or continuing to pay it but letting banks accumulate more public debt by financing the banks) through borrowing from a central bank at (near) zero interest. This too the EU has officially forbidden. It's nevertheless allowing the financing of banks from the ECB so they can retain bought debt, and launching increasing (and increasingly politically troublesome) loans to finance new debt. But the interest rates continue to be unsustainable. And this is not just a Greek problem.
Many countries are facing it.
I've seen a couple of posts about some currencies (swiss franc, dane krone, etc) being pegged to the Euro.
Isn't that kind of a "so what"? Can't they, rather painlessly, unpeg??
They can, but it'll cause severe problems to their exporters. Which in turn causes rising unemployment, more state expenses against less revenue, and possibly budget problems. Some (like the swiss) have ample margin to absorb that but still fear the scale of what may happen, other not so much.
And when I say ample margin I must admit I'm not very clear on the actual power of the swiss central government and the Swiss National Bank, which (afaik) is private. It may turn out to be an illusory "heaven" for all those moving money there from southern Europe, as supposedly has been happening. The swiss too would probably have to change their institutional arrangements to weather a financial crisis.
