Originally posted by Az:
A war between Greece and Turkey?
As far as I'm concerned: no thanks!
But here's my opinion on what could happen in such a case...
First let me explain how's the situation.
Since always Greece and Turkey considered each other as a threat. As a result the two countries have always been preparing for a war. What came out is a little cold war. The situation has many similarities to the US/USSR cold war. Greece and Turkey are the main weapon buyers in Europe for years now. When Greece buys a new defense system Turkey says that this action constitutes a major threat for her and vice versa.
But Turkey has always (since 1923) been in front in numbers for two reasons.
1) Turkish population is way bigger
2) Turkish government spends more money than Greece (which already spends a lot) in the military.
On the other hand Greece has a very good army and since history repeats itself we can look back and see that Greeks have always been less in number than their enemies and still won important battles: Marathon, Salamina, Alexander's campaigns, Albania in 1940 are some examples. So one could give Greece some chances in a Greco-Turkish war.
But this person would not be right.
I give Greece NO chances in a war with her neighbor. Why? Well I'm sure that Greek soldiers haven't lost their courage so that's not a problem. But Greece's mentality, economy and status have changed. When Constantinos Caramanlis put Greece in the EU in 1981 he knew full well that this meant that the Country's glorious history book would have to close. The last page would be that of the entrance of Greece in the EU. That because a country like Greece could never play a central role in this rich family where she would constitute one of the poor relatives. In fact, this meant the end of Greece's independance. But he also knew that this would be Greece's first and last chance to enter this family. So he chose to do it. Why? Because he didn't himself believe in Greece being able to handle a war with the Turks or any kind of crisis in the Balkans. Maybe he was right...
In any case Greece is now part of the family and Turkey is not.
So in my view two things can happen.
1) Turkey attacks and conquers a Greek island. Then Greece asks for help from the EU. Angry Chirac and Blair tell Greek prime minister to f*** himself <IMG SRC="http://forums.civfanatics.com/ubb/wink.gif" border=0>, as a long lasting war in Greece would cause a lot of damage to the Euro. So they ask him to conclude a fast cease fire, and then they guarantie that they will freeze the whole situation so that the Turks don't advance any further. They call Bush who tells the Turks that they can keep the Island for the moment if they agree to stop all hostilities. In Greece people go on the streets shouting that the Prime Minister is a coward and the government falls in the two days following the agreement. The next government starts negotiations to show to the people that things can change. But nothing happens. Turkey keeps the island for an indeterminate period of time and life goes on in Greece and Europe. In fact Greece lost the war and has one more Cyprus-like problem to solve...
2) The second possibility (which is the most probable) is the following...
Turkey will never attack Greece as the Americans don't want the EU and NATO to be destabilised.
In such a case Turkey has lost the cold war. The reason for this is simple. Turkey has spent to much in weapons that are now useless and stops buying more. Ruined economically it never enters the EU and stays allied to Israel and the US borowing money from them at the same time and becoming dependant. Why do I say ruined economically? Well because that's about the situation even today. The Turkish Pound has been devaluated so much that it's one of the less powerfull currencies in Europe. If I recall correctly some years ago 1 US Dollar was 350 Pounds. Today 1USD = some 3500 Pounds.
What do you think?
<FONT size="-2">Oh god please make TURK's modem brake so that we have a civilised conversation here...</FONT s><IMG SRC="http://forums.civfanatics.com/ubb/rolleyes.gif" border=0>