Firstly, @Raskolnikov: thank you very much.
Secondly, there is one point on which I agree with Soirana at least, that this will be my last post on this issue. Lets move on with the game shall we?
Now thats sorted, lets see if I cant clear up this issue (re: worker first) once and for all.
To that end, please find attached below a savegame which clearly shows the lost worker turns that result from building a worker first. For the record, the tech path was AH, mining, BW (to within 10 turns.) Ive also worked the oasis instead of the pigs to help minimise the wasted worker turns. (NB: I agree with you @dirtyparrot re: working the pigs, I just dont want someone coming back saying the wasted worker turns could be fewer if I worked the oasis.) BTW, anyone can view the file since I simply fortified the scout after settling to ensure none of the unknown areas of the map are revealed. The most important things to notice are that the year is 3100 BC, and BW is still 10 turns away. During this time, our worker can do nothing since we dont even start with agriculture to farm the wine.
Now, turning to your game @dirtyparrot in which you produced a worker first and dont worry, I wont disclose anything unknown to Shafi, so feel free to read on everyone.
Firstly, I note from the events log that you did not tech BW until 2625BC far later than in my save. This is because you teched TW (rather than mining - BW) immediately after AH, presumably to connect the horses. Despite the fact you tech BW much later than my save, you assert that there were no wasted worker turns. How can this be?
The answer is in fact devilishly simple: you occupied your worker during these extra turns from 3100BC (when I get BW) to 2625BC (when you get it) by (i) pasturing the horses (ii) roading them (iii) building a road that stretches right across your BFC and (iv) moving around the BFC onto the mine and forested squares. Make no mistake, you had free worker turns, its just that your worker was not idle during them because it pastured the (unknown at 4000 BC) horses and built numerous roads during that time.
Now, lets be clear: Im not criticising your strategy at all. By building a worker first, you gambled on there being horses 1S, it paid off and the very best of luck to you.
However, if that square 1S of the capital had contained anything other than horses, what then? At best, it might have contained copper but, lacking BW, youd then have been confined to spending all the time teching BW by deploying your worker to build yet more roads (and teching BWs 268 beakers at a maximum 13 BPT means theyd have had time to build a few). Whilst this may have helped speed up a rush by perhaps roading toward the neighbours, lets not forget that roading outside the BFC without protecting your worker is not without its risks. Protecting your worker with a scout meanwhile (if the worker roads outside the BFC) still puts your workers ability to later chop forests at the mercy of the RNG and stops exploration. Moreover, at 4000 BC (when the decision had to be made), Shafi didnt even know where the neighbours were (or indeed if there were any), so where were any roads to be built to? Of course, a priori at 4000 BC, we didnt even know if 1S contained copper...what if it had contained iron for the UU, oil or some other resource?
As mentioned, it is this very uncertainty that perfectly illustrate the point: when commencing the warrior build in 4000 BC, Shafi did not know that horses were in the BFC. Ex-post their discovery, worker first was, in retrospect, likely the best choice and the best of luck to anyone who pursued that approach. However, as mentioned in my previous post, decisions are made ex-ante, before the map is revealed. In the absence of going into WB before making the decision, Shafi therefore faced certain knowledge that worker first meant alot of worker downtime as Ive shown. The only cases in which this could be greatly lessened were (i) if horses were in the BFC or (ii) a decision had been made at 4000 BC to commit to teching TW immediately after AH so the worker could build roads, although we had no way of knowing in 4000 BC the direction in which they should be built. Now, sadly for Shafi, horses did in fact appear. However, given that Shafi, like the rest of us, did not have a crystal ball and know that horses were in the BFC, retrospective criticism of the decision of the sort Ive seen in this thread is out of line in my view.
Right, talking of horses, Im going to get off my high one right now
...is there any chance we can see how the game unfolds now please? I'm looking forward to seeing how two civs cope with Shafi's mighty chariots.
My back is still hurting 
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(=> room for science and merchant specialists there if needed). 
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