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I pledge to not buy Civ 6 until it is released

Discussion in 'Civ6 - General Discussions' started by ash88, Jul 18, 2016.

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  1. Zenstrive

    Zenstrive Ocean King

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    I'm still waiting for collectors edition.
    Which I think will not be available...but one can hope. But eh, I can still pre-purchase on September....
     
  2. von_Wurttemburg

    von_Wurttemburg Chieftain

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    Already bought. Can't pledge.
     
  3. ash88

    ash88 Hail to the King Baby -DN

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    I respectfully question your logic. Using the same logic we could say:

    I find trying to get people to stop texting while driving a little silly. People have been texting while driving for years and they still arrive at their destination alive, somehow.

    Good games are coming out, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a problem.

    Do I sound like I'm saving the world? That's a huge deal. I mean, if I were capable of saving the world I would demand that everyone else build me a castle. Mr. Gordon James Ramsay would have to become my personal Chef. And there would be a constant parade of world-class beautiful, willing, young women parading around my pool. To the best of my recollection I have demanded none of these things, yet.

    All the best...
     
  4. ash88

    ash88 Hail to the King Baby -DN

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    So we both agree that smoking-gun evidence would be difficult to impossible to obtain. Good. Stop asking for it then! Stop dismissing the argument with, "Show me the evidence!" Instead lets reason together.

    The thesis is: Preorders hurt the quality of video games.

    Recognizing that there is no evidence that will immediately confirm/deny this thesis, what are some things we should consider?

    Lets get back to basics...
    A) Does paying someone for their work before the work is done negatively affect the quality of the work? Common opinion is yes, it does. Would you agree? If not I can provide countless examples across countless industries, but I feel that doing so would be pedantic.

    B) Do people tend to prioritize short term gain over long term gain? This would be useful in showing a tendency for decision makers at a company to value the sales figures for an individual game over the sales figures for a brand. I think it's self evident and pedantic to cite examples for.

    I could go on, and if need be I can, but we are all intelligent people here, right? I'm sure others can come up with concise easy-to-digest sound bites that support the idea that preorders hurt video games. I'm having a hard time with this because a big part of me feels that people are just trolling. It seems that self-evident to me, for one. But I've been told elsewhere in this thread that this may not be the case, that some people may not be applying some basic market understanding to this for some unknown reasons.

    Anyways. Cheers.
     
  5. RDomico

    RDomico Chieftain

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    I would like to see system requirements before I pre-order. I am not sure my current computer will run it.
     
  6. ash88

    ash88 Hail to the King Baby -DN

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    I agree. It's a good article, but not directly related enough to forward the conversation.

    I agree with you here too - but only insofar as indie developers go. And with Indie developers and kickstarter as a whole it's understood that this is a high-risk venture. There are plenty of examples of Kickstarters that failed completely. I don't think you can draw a comparison between kickstarter asking for start up funding and established companies asking for preorders.

    TakeTwo is not getting bank loans to develop Civ6.

    All the best...
     
  7. Cromagnus

    Cromagnus Deity

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    The last two versions of Civ have been less than ideal (IMHO) on release, and continued to be inferior products (IMHO) until the first expansion, which was LONG after release.

    This is unlikely to change no matter what you do, because Civ is *such a complex game*. Unless each new version were a *very* minor incremental change, that is. It takes tons of play-testing to find the issues, let alone balance the game, and each balance change resets the clock somewhat.

    No QA department, no matter how elite, can deliver the sheer volume of play time that hundreds of thousands of players will throw at it. Even a really long extended beta period won't fix this. Now, I'm not making apologies for 2K here, I do believe they should give Firaxis more time and money to clean it up before forcing them to shove it out the door. But even if they did, games of this complexity, much like MMOs, can never ship at the same level of quality as a simple game like an FPS could.

    So, I could wait until the first expansion to buy, but if everyone does that... *there won't be a first expansion*, and the issues won't be addressed without the high volume of play needed to deliver enough feedback.

    What you should be doing instead of pledging not to pre-order is pledging to beta-test *effectively*. (IE not just play it for fun, but actually bug-hunt and deliver quality bug reports and feedback)

    There's a chicken and egg problem here. You have to support the game for the publisher to commit the highest level of funding to it. If you don't like that, don't punish Firaxis, because it's an industry-wide problem.
     
  8. Shigga

    Shigga Shiggadelic Baby! :)

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    Jap. :) I asked the reader to connect the dots, and to read the comments. So what is your evidence that pre-ordering does NOT harm the quality of games?

    First statement: I agree. On the latter, we obviously have different opinions.

    Please read my post entirely or at least quote me in a way that does not paint an incomplete picture of my opinion. I stated 2) and 3) of my initial post were true regardless of pre-ordering practice (I could have worded that better, I know), but in my view pre-ordering aggravates the situation insofar as it does support these practices and/or increases pressure on the named processes. If this does not seem obvious to you, that's a-okay.

    Again, where is your evidence that pre-ordering does NOT hurt the quality of games? :)

    I am ready to concede that causality may be too strong a statement in this case, but the various arguments brought forth against p-o make for a very high chance of a correlation, at least. Hell, even a lot of industry people think p-o is highly problematic. And a high chance is enough for me to not pre-order games in order to not support these connections. I don't condemn people that do otherwise, still it makes me sad that so many are willing to take a chance on something that could hurt what they love as a hobby. In my mind, that's just common sense.

    TL;DR: I think pre-ordering hurts the quality of games based on my own reasoning (which is the only one that matters in all the world ;) Full disclosure: IRL, I am a sage). Cheers! :)
     
  9. LDiCesare

    LDiCesare Deity

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    Okay, some figures.

    According to this lawsuit : http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...-for-630k-over-company-of-heroes-2-pre-orders
    CoH2 got 20,755 preorders over one year, for a total of about 1million dollars.
    The game has, according to http://steamspy.com/search.php?s=company+of+heroes+2, a total of : 1,857,801 owners, but that's unreliable. However, we know for sure it ahs at least 166,899 players, since those played in the last two weeks.
    So the number of owners vs; number of preorders is somewhere between 8x and 80x.
    Even if we remain on the low figures, for a game that has a life of 4 years, preorders represent at most 12% of the total sales.
    As a salesman, would you consider it worth to sink the quality of when you can expect 8 times more players total? Even if the games get discounted at -75%, that's still more money than what you get from the preorders.
    So, from those figures, I consider that it's not in the benefit of thepublisher to rush a game even if it has preorders because the quantity of people preordering is something between 1%and 12% of the total number of games sold.

    I wish I could find more data about how many games are preordered vs the total amount sold or, even better, the amount of money spent on both, but that would be too long and uncertain.

    Anyway, with these figures, I think the number of people who preorder is too low to have a negative effect on the publishers policy. In the case quoted, it was also too low to have a positive effect on the publihser, as they still filed for bankruptcy but the game got done anyway. Would it have been completed without the preorders? Would someone have bought that IP back if there were not 1 million dollars waiting in and proving there was a market?

    Everyone should not preorder, but I doubt that's ever going to happen. Since not everyone should preorder and given the figures above, I think claiming that preodering has a negative effect is groundless. The publishers would have to deliberately sacrifice a potential income several times bigger than the preorder income by letting down on quality. That wouldn't be good business as they'd lose money.
     
  10. Ryika

    Ryika Lazy Wannabe Artista

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    That website also claims that Civilization V hat 1 Million active players in the last two weeks. With 9 Million owners overall registered that would mean that 1 out of 9 players who own the game still play the game. Considering that only ~20% of all registered buyers have ever beaten the game at all, on any difficulty, I'm highly skeptical of those numbers, they seem to be very overblown.

    On top of that: How many of those owners have actually picked up the game at or shortly after release? How many have bought it when it was on sale? How many would NOT have bought the game after release if it had been disastrously bad? etc. - lots of questions that remain unanswered.

    Also, why would companies go the extra mile and create pre-order bonuses and intensives to pre-order if it wasn't profitable for them? Overall it seems very obvious to me that there's profit to be made that way.

    But you seem to think that people are claiming that companies intentionally make bad games because they know they can get away with it because of preorder - I don't think that's what anyone here is saying. It is simply one of many factors that dampen the effect of a bad release and allow the company to keep going.
     
  11. m15a

    m15a Emperor

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    I never said "show me the evidence" or anything like that. I just think that in the absence of clear evidence, the validity of the claim is unclear. I'm not dismissing the claim, but I'm not going to believe it, let alone act upon it just because it may be true and because so many people in a certain subculture believe it despite the lack of evidence.

    To respond to your points: (a) sometimes, not always, (b) sometimes, not always. Pro and con examples can be given for both. If we are being intelligent people, we would not come to a conclusion based on that information. And to be clear, I'm not calling you or gamers unintelligent, but all people make unintelligent decisions at times. This is a hard claim to prove or disprove based on evidence or logic, so people or even collective social groups often resort using biases - not "intelligence". (And since people on here are offended by claims of bias without proof, see Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow for extensive evidence on the presence of biases in human thinking.) I'm sorry, but the fact that you can't fathom people not believing the claim and its "self-evidence" to you shows that you are basing your conclusion on your intuition, which does not increase my confidence in the claim.
     
  12. Ryika

    Ryika Lazy Wannabe Artista

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    So in essence you would also dismiss the claim that games magazines that are paid for false reviews would have a positive influence on the sales of a really bad game as compared to if they had written an honest review?

    Simply because we cannot go into an alternative reality to get hard evidence?
     
  13. m15a

    m15a Emperor

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    We can get statistical evidence on the correlation between reviews (since they are quantified) and sales. Game quality is not a quantity so correlation can't be measured - you would need to come up with a quantifiable and reliable measurement for the quality of games. You could theoretically do that and if someone has, then I'd like to see those statistics.

    But without statistical evidence on the correlation of reviews and sales, yes, I would not assume that there is a correlation between reviews and sales.
     
  14. LDiCesare

    LDiCesare Deity

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    Yes, the figures should be trated with a grain of salt. But this month peak simultaneous civ players is 70k, when the all-time peak is 90k, so it's not unlikely that many people took the game again, either because they never left it or because of civ 6.

    I never said there is no incentive for companies to preorder. Quite the contrary. Money earlier is always better.

    And yes, I think some people here claim companies intentionally make bad games if they get all money from preorders. That's exactly what I read in post 93:
    This is different from what you say, that is allowing the company to keep going.

    Anyway, the only way to know if preorders currently have a negative impact on game quality is to check if they have an effect on the bottom line. To that end, we need to know the proportion of people who preorder. If it's low, it won't even allow the company to keep going. Without such figures, the "preordering hurts game quality" is just theorycrafting.
     
  15. mjs0

    mjs0 The 4th X

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    Sadly I don't have time for a detailed discussion, the real world has kept me from contributing here far longer than I would want, and I have my own (not game-related) software business to run and deadlines to meet. (I need to get ahead before October!)

    However, I do appreciate your responses to my points and whilst I respectfully disagree with a lot of what you are saying I don't think your perspective is objectively wrong, I just prefer a different interpretation of the data. :cooool:

    Regards.
     
  16. Ryika

    Ryika Lazy Wannabe Artista

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    A correlation is meaningless, because correlation doesn't mean causation. There's literally no way you could prove a causation of a gaming journal giving a favorable review because they were bought and sale numbers. Because you simply cannot prove that a person who has picked up a game would not have picked up the game had they not read about it in that specific games magazine.

    Yet, we of course accept that conclusion, because it is logically sound and most likely true - if people who aren't well informed about a game read a positive review in a games magazine they may pick it up.

    The evidence that pre-order culture makes people buy a game that they otherwise would not have is equally sound, it just adds a theory that is well-accepted in behavioral psychology - the idea of investment and how it makes us see products in a different light.

    If people can invest in a game - emotionally or physically - they are more likely to buy and stick to it, even if it later turns out to be bad. Therefor pre-ordering does produces sales that are not bound to the quality of the game, therefor companies can use pre-ordering to get people invested and more tolerant of the quality of the game.

    Which does not mean that they deliberately produce a subpar game, but it does mean that any game that isn't on the "very good" level will end up with higher sales numbers than if they had not have pre-order available.

    So again, the logical trail seems sound to me, unless you can poke some holes into it it or provide some evidence that point into a different direction it seems completely fine to me to accept it not as the truth, but as what is most likely true.

    I don't read it that way, that may be because we are running on different definitions of what we mean by "intentionally bad".

    What you seem to mean is: "Realizing the end product is not very good and still push it out because "pre-order will fix it!""

    What I mean is: "Going in with the plan to create a subpar product, knowing that they'll still make money thanks to pre-ordering."

    Going by your definition: Yeah, I actually agree that people make that claim then, and I would be one of them, because I completely agree with the quote (but have not gone back to look at the complete post) - companies do release "intentionally bad" games under that definition.

    When a game doesn't manage to get into a polished state when the release day is near most companies to push out a game anyway instead of delaying it and getting it into the polished state that players would like - and Pre-Ordering, Marketing, as well as Brand Recognition and other factors are certainly things that allow Companies to get away with deciding that the game is "good enough" instead of polishing it first.
     
  17. ash88

    ash88 Hail to the King Baby -DN

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    Sure. But do you agree that we base our expectations in the market around the idea that these two (of many) premises are correct (sometimes, not always)? In very few places do people pay for services/products before recieving those services/products. Why do you think that is? Why do you think that is a good practice that we have adopted? Why do you feel that shouldn't apply to this situation? What is different?

    I think your claim of intelligent/unintelligent people on either side of the argument is misplaced at best, and insulting at worst. It is possible for intelligent people to have differing opinions. Likewise it is possible for intelligent people to come up with good arguments for the opposite side of the discussion they are on - which is what I suggested. You will save yourself grief if you don't make it personal to anyone, but more than that you will be correct.

    Apology accepted.
    But I challenge your premise: "Because I can't fathom someone believing something different than me I therefore have based my conclusion on intuition." That is not a true statement. There are uncountable reasons why I may not be able to fathom someone's belief. Your logical jump is a big one.

    In anycase I wasn't saying that as proof for my thesis, but rather in the context of the paragraph I was explaining why I have difficulty spending time listing tons of self-evident statements.

    All the best.
     
  18. ash88

    ash88 Hail to the King Baby -DN

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    Ryika has already brought to the forefront some of the questions I would have about your interpretation of the data, but regardless of that I just wanted to say thank you for pointing this all out. It's rare that someone brings something tangible like this in to the discussion and I for one appreciate it.

    All the best...
     
  19. ash88

    ash88 Hail to the King Baby -DN

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    This is why I love civfanatics. Cheers mate.
     
  20. m15a

    m15a Emperor

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    Alright. I'll buy this (with some caveats, maybe). Pre-ordering as a whole increases sales of bad games by some amount, which means that the publisher's cost of choosing to make a worse game is reduced. The caveat being that we have no idea how much it increases sales, so we don't know how much it factors into decisions. It is possible based on this logic alone, that it has no effect on publishing decision-making. Maybe without presale, 50% of sales would be lost but with presale, 49% of sales would be lost - there'd still be enough incentive to make the game good... Or maybe not. Maybe that 1% convinces the publisher to cut back on the budget by some amount.

    For me personally, though, if I decide to pre-order Civ VI, there is a very high chance I would buy the game afterward anyway. I'll buy it even if it is a "bad" game since my past experience is that even bad Civ games have been worth owning for me. And even if the pre-order "commitment" is stronger than I anticipate, it'll still be insignificant when compared to the emotional commitment I have to the game from other sources. Really, CFC (i.e., the Civ player community) is a much stronger influence on my decisions than the game cost. I'm excited about the game since I've been talking about it so much already (and I'll get even more pleasure talking about the game post launch even if it is bad).

    So isn't CFC, and all other gaming fan communities, the bigger enemy? They have an even stronger emotional commitment than pre-orders do a financial commitment, which means CFC reduces the cost (in lost sales) of producing a poor Civ game even more? So, should we all pledge to not post on here for the good of the gaming world?
     
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