If China and Russia went to war next year

[alcal]

Uhm... what?

Russians are out of Georgia proper, Abkhazia and S.Ossetia are about as independent as they used to be before the war, Georgian regime survived, EU maintains an unified position.

So, what exactly went wrong and should have been done differently, according to you?

And no, Russia does not have Europe "by the balls". Russia supplies less than 50% of Europe's natural gas imports, but is almost entirely dependant on the money it earns there. If Russia stopped gas/oil supplies to Europe, the Russian economy would collapse in a year.

Hey Winny, always with this anti-russian behaviour?

 

[lovett]

I think it would be easier to "contain" China. Russia currently has Europe by the balls because of the gas lines. Look at the response from Europe after Russia invaded Georgia.

In the short-term, perhaps. In the long term, Europe should be changing it's energy sources anyway, Russia is hemoraghing 700,000 citizens a year and if Russia actually turns off the taps (or god forbid, energy costs fall) their economy goes through the floor. Furthermore, Russia would probably aim any militant intention at eastern Europe. Firstly, attacking EU or Nato nations is simply a non-starter. There's a natural limit to Russia's aggression.

In contrast China has the potential to be relatively independent, economically. They have a real basis for power, numbering at about 1.3 billion. Furthermore, if China decided to turn imperialist a lot more nations would be at risk. Taiwan almost certainly, Korea conceivably, Vietnam, Burma, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos all easily. India and Japan are the only geographically close nations with the ability to really stand up to China, and I'd hate to think what a war between either of them would turn out like.

 

[Commy]

Hey Winny, always with this anti-russian behaviour?

He is the main rusophobe of CFC

 

[Winner]

Hey Winny, always with this anti-russian behaviour?

That's an urban myth

Let's try this: make a list of problems and frictions which exist between Europe and Russia and then make a similar list for Europe-China relations. See who's more problematic.

From my European point of view, weaker Russia is the better alternative. For the Americans who are more afraid of China (since they don't have Russia on their doorstep) it makes more sense to root for Russia.

He is the main rusophobe of CFC

That's what the useful idiots say

 

[Dr.Mindbender]

That's an urban myth

Let's try this: make a list of problems and frictions which exist between Europe and Russia and then make a similar list for Europe-China relations. See who's more problematic.

From my European point of view, weaker Russia is the better alternative. For the Americans who are more afraid of China (since they don't have Russia on their doorstep) it makes more sense to root for Russia.

I know this is not addressed to me, but I am fascinated about you being somewhat a unique European in this great forum community that we all dwell in. Is United States some kind of "Beacon of Light" for you? Instead of other so-called threatening powers like China and Russia. If so, man you are probably the only pro-American Europenis in this forum!

 

[Aegis]

And no, Russia does not have Europe "by the balls". Russia supplies less than 50% of Europe's natural gas imports, but is almost entirely dependant on the money it earns there. If Russia stopped gas/oil supplies to Europe, the Russian economy would collapse in a year.

I would say almost 50% of their natural gas imports being reliant on Russia is a pretty hefty dependency. Yes, if Europe stopped buying their supplies, the Russian economy would collapse, but not if they could find another buyer.

The main reason I would prefer a Chinese victory is because our economy is intertwined with theirs. From my understanding, they are practically propping up the US with their investment bonds, etc.

 

[alcal]

That's an urban myth

Let's try this: make a list of problems and frictions which exist between Europe and Russia and then make a similar list for Europe-China relations. See who's more problematic.

From my European point of view, weaker Russia is the better alternative. For the Americans who are more afraid of China (since they don't have Russia on their doorstep) it makes more sense to root for Russia.

Yes but it's always better to deal with russian borthers than with China. What do we have in common with China? Nothing. Blood comes first.

http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=HLVqq3N1iqY

 

[Winner]

I know this is not addressed to me, but I am fascinated about you being somewhat a unique European in this great forum community that we all dwell in. Is United States some kind of "Beacon of Light" for you? Instead of other so-called threatening powers like China and Russia. If so, man you are probably the only pro-American Europenis in this forum!

Not at all. Those who've been on this forum longer than you could probably remember dozens of threads in which I was very opposed to American foreign policy. I guess that makes me anti-American, since we're calling legitimate criticism phobia now

 

[Winner]

Yes but it's always better to deal with russian borthers than with China. What do we have in common with China? Nothing. Blood comes first.

http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=HLVqq3N1iqY

If Russia was ruled by at least a bit sensible people, I'd be first to say "Go Russia". They're fellow Slavs after all Unfortunately until they stop electing and supporting crazy governments, Russia must be contained and closely watched.

 

[alcal]

If Russia was ruled by at least a bit sensible people, I'd be first to say "Go Russia". They're fellow Slavs after all Unfortunately until they stop electing and supporting crazy governments, Russia must be contained and closely watched.

I agree. My support to Russia will ends quikly, if they try to take my freedom.

 

[lovett]

I would say almost 50% of their natural gas imports being reliant on Russia is a pretty hefty dependency. Yes, if Europe stopped buying their supplies, the Russian economy would collapse, but not if they could find another buyer.

The wouldn't.

 

[Winner]

I would say almost 50% of their natural gas imports being reliant on Russia is a pretty hefty dependency. Yes, if Europe stopped buying their supplies, the Russian economy would collapse, but not if they could find another buyer.

Uhm, that's not what I am talking about. I am talking about a situation in which Russia would decide to blackmail Europe and cut the gas/oil supplies. I am explaining that such a move would hurt the Russians WAAAAAY more that it would hurt Europe.

Unless they find a way how to teleport their oil/gas to China, Japan or elsewhere, they are dependent on European market.

This is why I find all that talk - like yours "Russia has Europe by the balls" - absurd. In fact, Europe is like a car factory and Russia is like a subcontractor who's making special seats for it. If the car factory closes down, the subcontractor goes under as well because he can't sell his products to another customer.

 

[zjl56]

It would be much better for the world if an unstable government in Moscow fell than Beijing. A provisional government could easily take the place with little suffering compared to the absolute hell that would take place if the CCP fell. I loath the CCP, but they are a necessity in keeping half 1/4 of the world fed.

If there is going to be a war in the region, it will be China and Russia regaining their holds on Central Asia. Russia is power hungry, and, taking to account their ease of military use, they just might "relinquish" valuable control of oil and nuclear resources in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan.

 

[BEHIND_THE_MASK]

Winner, if you can tell me 5 things you like about Russia and issues you agree with them on thin I will stop calling you a Russophobe (can't talk for the others)

However I highly doubt you will come up with one

and when I say good things, i want it said in a good manner, no sarcasm or such...

 

[RedRalph]

The wouldn't.

Oh, why not?

 

[silver 2039]

If there is going to be a war in the region, it will be China and Russia regaining their holds on Central Asia. Russia is power hungry, and, taking to account their ease of military use, they just might "relinquish" valuable control of oil and nuclear resources in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan.

They never lost their hold. I guess you never heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Its effectively a strategic partnership and implicit military alliance between Russia and China and the Central Asian states. They hold regular summits, have a joint anti-terrorist force, and they held joint military exercises not long ago.

 

[Aegis]

Uhm, that's not what I am talking about. I am talking about a situation in which Russia would decide to blackmail Europe and cut the gas/oil supplies. I am explaining that such a move would hurt the Russians WAAAAAY more that it would hurt Europe.

Unless they find a way how to teleport their oil/gas to China, Japan or elsewhere, they are dependent on European market.

This is why I find all that talk - like yours "Russia has Europe by the balls" - absurd. In fact, Europe is like a car factory and Russia is like a subcontractor who's making special seats for it. If the car factory closes down, the subcontractor goes under as well because he can't sell his products to another customer.

It's not that they would "blackmail" Europe; it's that Russia can act how they see fit without worrying about intervention from Europe.

You're only looking at cutting Russian/EU gas ties from the angle of Russia being hurt, but you fail to see that it would also hurt Europe. Just not as much. It's in everyone's best interest to not come into conflict, but what if Russia decides it's a risk worth taking if Europe depends on their supplies enough to not want to intervene, for fear of disrupting supply?

The wouldn't.

I'm sure there are some M.E. & African nations that would just love to have more energy supplies.

 

[RedRalph]

They never lost their hold. I guess you never heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Its effectively a strategic partnership and implicit military alliance between Russia and China and the Central Asian states. They hold regular summits, have a joint anti-terrorist force, and they held joint military exercises not long ago.

and most (but not all) of the Central Asian former SSR's lean towards Russia, not China.

 

[silver 2039]

and most (but not all) of the Central Asian former SSR's lean towards Russia, not China.

The only non-member I believe is Turkmenistan.

 

[Dr.Mindbender]

and most (but not all) of the Central Asian former SSR's lean towards Russia, not China.

Then who are they? The elites (I assume people in the public sector or the private sector) or (people of whatever ethnicity or whatever politics that they hold) etc...