Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).

[innonimatu]

Let's see where this goes... Israel is really looking to get Iran involved in hopes to get the US involved. It's almost as iff all those concerns raised at the start of this whole thing were compleely valid. I guess we are about to find out just how powerful that crazy overpowered political bloc that is Christian Zionists are in the US... because this all unpopular already and I cannot begin the fathom how direct US involvement will make it more palatable for the American public.

The US does not have the military capability to get involved. It's as simple as that. This isn't Iraq 1991. The US accelerated into a deeply corrupt and much deindustriailzed society that can no longer replenish its military. There is no trap being laid for Iran in the US claiming it won't get involved. The US military is correctly too scared to get drawed in. The israeli government is another drinking its own propaganda and living in delusion. I do agree that their strategy, if it could be called that, was involving the US but it can't be done.

The furthest extend of US involvment is the final depletion of its available air defense systems, which must have been channeled to Jordan recently. Rendering the former hegemon toothless just as project Ukraine goes into collapse. This is all connected, necessarily.

In the end the US state department and military will take its balls and go sulk back home. Western europeans will have to get used to living with what they directly, willfully and recklessly provoked: a Russia with plenty of reasons to be pissed at the little peninsula to its west, and dictating both terms of trade and diplomatic security arrangements for the continent. As for Israel, it is bankrupt, hemorraging population, and losing its sugar daddy. It's a failed state. That's also the product of extreme hubris, they refused to negotiate peace, living and letting live, when they were winning and could trade land for peace. The comparison with Armenia remains apt.

 

[Kyriakos]

It'd be nice if we had any estimate of when the main attack will come, and also when the missiles will be used.

 

[r16]

there will be no missiles , according to the Iranian staff at the UN and this will be it .

america had its October thing on 9/11 and Dabya was just what he was , unhinged or not unhinged . Like Netanyahu , letting it happen , spending the Clinton era hoard on profits for select companies .

 

[Birdjaguar]

Well, so far it's been pretty ho hum. Iran knows it will lose a war with Israel. I'm thinking atm that it is and will be a "show attack" and soon over.

 

[Lexicus]

Well, so far it's been pretty ho hum. Iran knows it will lose a war with Israel. I'm thinking atm that it is and will be a "show attack" and soon over.

What do you think Israel 'winning' a war against Iran would look like

 

[innonimatu]

What do you think Israel 'winning' a war against Iran would look like

There is no answer to that question. Israel's strategy was to use the US as its wrecking ball, and to rule over rubble in the Middle East as the regional power. But the missed the fact that the US cannot play that role any longer. Without the US doing that war there was no "winning" possible for Israel.

So Israel has no strategy going. It's a country in failure mode. The "Samson option" is just quicker national suicide. I doubt they would try it. But deluded people sometimes are also crazy, who knows?

 

[Birdjaguar]

What do you think Israel 'winning' a war against Iran would look like

Israel wouldn't win even if Iran loses.

 

[Remorseless1]

What do you think Israel 'winning' a war against Iran would look like

Nukes. Israel has around 50 nuclear bombs. And while Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons per se, they have of enriched uranium that make even shooting down a drone carrying radioactive material dangerous. Dirty bombs vs. big boom bombs.

 

[E.man]

If the US had been subjected to Oct. 7th you would have seen unhinged.

... and if someone demolished a US embassy.

 

[Broken_Erika]

If the US had been subjected to Oct. 7th you would have seen unhinged.

9/11 and Iraq.

 

[banzay13]

,so, atm confirmed that at least 7 missile hit a military base. Iran claims that revenge was accomplished, and they want strike again if...
But I don't think Israel will stop.
Waiting for further escalation

 

[Snowygerry]

Not confirmed by Israel at any rate, they claim 99 % of missiles were intercepted, our correspondent there reports light damage to a military base, and one girl wounded by shrapnel.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

,so, atm confirmed that at least 7 missile hit a military base. Iran claims that revenge was accomplished, and they want strike again if...
But I don't think Israel will stop.
Waiting for further escalation

By 'confirmed' you mean something like this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779390987040673812

Woke up this morning with this Iran news agency posting footage of a wildfire in Texas claiming it is Israel.

Don't get too excited. Most probably Iranians hit nothing of interest. Israel air force is among the most effective in the world, (basically the opposite to Russia) so I doubt any of the Iranian drones or cruise missiles even managed to reach Israeli airspace. Ballistic missiles are more dangerous though but the layered Israel AD is specifically prepared for even more difficult targets, such like ballistic Palestinian rockets, which are fired simultaneously by dozens, by surprise and at point blank, in this case however they had plenty of time to comfy test its AD systems*

Be prepared for further footage now, but this time it is going to be Tehran, not Texas. Don't think it is going to be too harsh though. Not yet...

*Precisely just watched some interesting footage of several extra atmospheric interceptions, probably by Arrow missiles.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Impressive parade of long haul airliners to avoid the area. Middle East is probably one the most transited airspaces in the world after all. By definition it connects western and eastern hemispheres.

Btw I wonder what Jordanians think about Iran launching its stuff over their sovereign heads. Probably Jordanian Air Force force did part of Israel job and downed a number of Iranian drones and cruise missiles.

 

[Snowygerry]

They stated as much yes,

April 14 (Reuters) - Jordan intercepted some flying objects that entered its airspace on Saturday night to ensure the safety of its citizens, a cabinet statement said on Sunday

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www.reuters.com

 

[Snowygerry]

More surprising (to me) is that France is specifically mentioned as helping defend Israel.

Loading…

www.wsj.com

France Deploys Navy to Defend Israel

 

[r16]

400(?) launches , 70(?) shot down by Americans out of 300(?) reported here in CFC and Daniel Hagari or whatever as spokesperson for the Israeli Military reported minor damage to Nevatim Air Base in the Negev Desert . Everything targeted was military by official tweets of Israel and the airbase would logically be the only thing Iranians would try to hit . Imagine blowing up the El Aksa compound or something . This is NOT the victory one assumes people would claim .

 

[banzay13]

Footage of missiles hits (probably same from different Pov)

Two Majors - English Channel

Israeli media: During the night, 185 Iranian drones and 146 missiles were intercepted. 7 arrivals - at the air base in Ramona. ⭐️At the same time, the network is replete with footage of Israeli air defense arrivals and work. Many experts still call the main event the beginning of attacks by...

t.me

 

[Verbose]

What do you think Israel 'winning' a war against Iran would look like

If Israel likes it can just declare stopping that Iranian barrage "a defensive victory" and be done with it.

Probably not the worst idea out there.

 

[Snowygerry]

It does seem the conflict is being managed yes, to some degree.

This is a very impressive, yet surprising non-lethal attack, with long warning and half a dozen airforces helping defend.