Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).

[GoodEnoughForMe]

America could choose to pursue that as well.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

I cannot help thinking of the 1963 Cuban missile crisis.

The US blockaded Cuba and demanded the Soviet Union cease installing missile sites.

The Russians agreed and also said they would also dismantle the operational systems already there.

This came as a complete surprise to the US intelligence who had not realised that some of the
soviet installations on Cuba had already been completed and were ready for the launch command.

Now regarding Iran, it has not yet been proven that the Iranians have not already enriched
enough uranium to build nuclear bombs or that the US bombing has destroyed their bunkers.

I therefore remain quite pessimistic.

Perhaps a relevant historical event would also be what Egypt tried to do in the 1960s with rockets. Israel tried to kidnap or kill scientists who possibly wanted to lace the rockets with radioactive material. It's debatable how close the scientists got, though.
Yet building a classic H-bomb with was not necessary, and need not be necessary, in order for Israel to have acted. From their perspective, I imagine, someone can just set off a dirty bomb in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and the whole country is done; it's not that big of a place to begin with.
So in this instance, they did not wait for some formal announcement or a practical test by Iran that they had a bomb, or launchers to be erected such as in Cuba.

There is no game plan, except to perpetually buy time in this manner, AFAICT.

We can say this about any president since Truman and the Korean Peninsula, who began a police action there without really discussing the "plan" with anyone.

Legally it is and has been (for a long time) a troubling position for the US as a government to be in. But morally, much of the time, presidents are able to articulate what they did and why and the American people tended to go along with it. And eventually kick out the president when they don't. As you hinted, it only tends to become a problem when US servicemen get killed...

 

[Joij21]

The goal ultimately is to create a global system by merchants for merchants.

This means eventually Islam will have to go because of it's provisions against usury. A merchant society inevitably will always be pro usury, not to mention the anti materialism culture of Islam which would decrease consumption rates of consumer goods and services, plus the prudishness which forces merchants to be unable to use the old trick of sex sells to force products down customers' throats.

Ultimately a hypersexual, hedonistic, hyperconsumerist, material atheist society is the best bet to maximize profits and advance global capital. Really all religions don't have a place in the future if growth is expected to be infinite.

 

[banzay13]

The goal ultimately is to create a global system by merchants for merchants.

This means eventually Islam will have to go because of it's provisions against usury. A merchant society inevitably will always be pro usury, not to mention the anti materialism culture of Islam which would decrease consumption rates of consumer goods and services, plus the prudishness which forces merchants to be unable to use the old trick of sex sells to force products down customers' throats.

Ultimately a hypersexual, hedonistic, hyperconsumerist, material atheist society is the best bet to maximize profits and advance global capital. Really all religions don't have a place in the future if growth is expected to be infinite.

Tell me, how Islam has gone from Europe since Aran spring.
Not to mention, NATO hepled Kosovo and helped Al-kaida win somehow secular Assad regime and install power over Syria

 

[Broken_Erika]

https://bsky.app/profile/factpostnews.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3ls7j4kj3sk2u

 

[Voidwalkin]

Legally it is and has been (for a long time) a troubling position for the US as a government to be in. But morally, much of the time, presidents are able to articulate what they did and why and the American people tended to go along with it. And eventually kick out the president when they don't. As you hinted, it only tends to become a problem when US servicemen get killed...

Do bear in mind that I look more favorably on Obama than most, and think the current situation largely a consequence of Trump riding American machismo this far after cancelling a perfectly acceptable deal.

This is kinda the **** it approach to resolution. It will work well enough for now, simply because the Iranians drastically overestimated their institutions, like Nasser and the Arabs before them. Middle Eastern powers going up against Israel is becoming something like invading Russia in June, with another power humiliated.

 

[Ordnael]

Not to play the hog emperor of doom lawyer but folks have thrown around the deal the US got out of and I remember the man back in his first term saying the US was paying money for Iran not to make a bomb and it made sense to me not to keep paying that ransom/tribute.
Now I know the money being spent on that deal is not being spent on improving Usians lifes, but if it's spent in sending a B2 to "close down" those peaceful installations in Iran for peaceful research of the A bomb, then I say it's money better spent!

 

[r16]

ı don't know , isn't that money Iran's in the first place ? Yeah , the West can sanction you and grab your money and refuse to give it back and call it moral high grounds that they will not pay you because you are terrorist with nefarious aims ... Another call to get Russian money for free use . Europe will gladly pay its own taxpayer money to beat Russia , if it comes to that , as we are tolc repeatedly or something , even here .

 

[Thorgalaeg]

[

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com%2Fpost%2F3lsb7guzcrk2s

Numerous airstrikes on Teheran right now.

 

[banzay13]

Tell me, how Islam has gone from Europe since Aran spring.
Not to mention, NATO hepled Kosovo and helped Al-kaida win somehow secular Assad regime and install power over Syria

Look like US have big chances to convert too. But, imo, UK will be firts western country
"One day Florida will be Muslim. We have already bought three churches and converted them into mosques. May Allah grant victory to Islam in this country!" — Muslim preacher in the USA

Милитарист

«Однажды Флорида станет мусульманской. Мы уже выкупили три церкви и переделали их в мечети. Да дарует Аллах победу исламу в этой стране!», - мусульманский проповедник в США

t.me

 

[Smellincoffee]

Reza Pahlavi is calling for Khameini to step down. I don't know what kind of following he has inside Iran, though.

Ladies and Gentlemen, members of the international press corps, good afternoon.Thank you for being here today. This is a historic moment for our nation. I will begin with a brief message to my compatriots in Iran, in Persian, which I will then translate.“My fellow compatriots, our beloved Iran has been dragged into a devastating conflict, the architect of which is none other than Ali Khamenei and his corrupt, destructive faction. He has driven our nation’s economy to the brink of collapse, plundered our national infrastructure and resources, squandered the nation's wealth on developing nuclear weapons, shattered Iran’s security, and stolen the sovereignty of the Iranian people. This regime is defeated, teetering on the edge of collapse, and must not be allowed to continue. The time has come to end this ruin and begin a new era for Iran. This is a new dawn for Iran’s Lion and Sun.”Ladies and gentlemen, over the past few days, I’ve spoken with people across Iran from every walk of life. An officer in the armed forces. A mother fleeing Tehran. A factory worker from Tabriz. A young woman activist from the Women, Life, Freedom movement.These voices represent a nation, embattled but resilient, that is not asking for its freedom. It is fighting for it. From the 1999 student protests to the Green Movement to the 2017 Dey-mah and 2019 Aban-mah uprisings, thousands of Iranians have given their lives in the fight for Iran’s liberation. Today, millions of my brave compatriots continue the fight. One of their stories moved me deeply.In September 2022 Javad Heydari was murdered protesting the Islamic Republic’s killing of Mahsa Amini. His sister has continued his fight. She is one of the hundreds of activists the regime has arrested and harassed in recent days.When security forces raided her home, she cried out:“Oh God, where shall we go? Where shall we go to flee from your tyranny?”One by one, her neighbors began to respond to her:“We’re not going anywhere! They, the regime, are the ones who’ve got to go!”

These words echo in my heart—and should echo in every corridor of power around the world.Today, it is clearer than ever: The Islamic Republic is collapsing.Credible reports indicate that Ali Khamenei’s family—and the families of senior regime officials—are making preparations to flee Iran. The regime is on its last legs, in towns and cities across the country. The military is fractured. The people are united. The foundations of this 46-year tyranny are shaking.This is our Berlin wall moment.But like all moments of great change, it comes fraught with danger. We stand at a crossroads. One road leads to bloodshed and chaos. The other—to a peaceful and democratic transition. The difference in these two roads depends on one factor and one factor alone: whether the current regime in Iran is allowed to survive. If the West throws the regime a lifeline there will be more bloodshed and chaos - because this regime will not submit or surrender after it has been humiliated. It will lash out. As long as it is in power, no country and no people are safe: whether on the streets of Washington, Paris, Jerusalem, Riyadh, or Tehran.There is only one way to achieve peace: a secular, democratic Iran. I am here today to submit myself to my compatriots to lead them down this road to peace and a democratic transition.I do not seek political power, but rather to help our great nation navigate through this critical hour toward stability, freedom, and justice.To the people of Iran— I see your courage. I feel your pain. I know you are suffering. I know many of you are afraid for your loved ones, your children, your future.So I speak to you today with a heavy heart. I worked for years, for decades, so that the scourge of war would never reach the borders of our land. Seeing the images of the people of Tehran forced to flee our beautiful capital, the explosions in Isfahan, the fires along the Persian Gulf, all fill me with pain.But more than pain, I am filled with anger because this war is the result of the selfishness, hatred, and terror of one man: Ali Khamenei. While he directs this war from the safety of his hidden bunker, he uses our people as human shields.

It is time to end the suffering.So today, I have a direct message for Ali Khamenei: Step down. And if you do, you will receive a fair trial and due process of law. Which is more than you have ever given any Iranian.To other senior regime officials: those of you whose hands are soiled with the blood of the Iranian people, you too will have to face justice. But we will not repeat the mistakes made in other failed transitions. To those of you who are loyal to the Iranian nation, and not the Islamic Republic: there is a future for you in a democratic Iran, if you join the people now. The choice is yours to make.I know these officers, these soldiers, these brave men exist because they are reaching out to me and telling me they want to be part of this national salvation. But now, greater coordination is needed.So to that end, today I am announcing that I am establishing a formal channel for military, security, and police personnel to reach out directly to me, my team, and our expanding operation. This is a secure platform to efficiently manage the growing volume of inbound communications and requests from those breaking with the regime and seeking to join our movement.For those patriotic members of our armed forces, the time is now to join the nation. If you do, I will make sure your service to Iran is not forgotten and is celebrated.To the international community: Now is the moment to stand with the Iranian people. Do not repeat the mistakes of the past. Do not throw this regime a lifeline.You are right to be concerned about stopping nuclear weapons and securing regional stability. Only a democratic transition in Iran can ensure these goals are achieved and are lasting.Take, for example, the destruction of the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow enrichment facilities. Yes, this has diminished the regime’s domestic nuclear enrichment. But it does not diminish the regime’s intent to acquire and use nuclear weapons. The regime, enraged and emboldened, will be seeking revenge and can acquire nuclear weapons from other rogue regimes like North Korea.The destruction of the regime’s nuclear facilities alone will not deliver peace.But the path I offer can. So work with us to ensure a peaceful transition.

Now is not the time for hesitation. Now is the time for principled action, from each of us.46 years ago when my late father and our family were forced to leave Iran, I took an oath to God and to my country: I would not turn my back on Iran or the Iranian people. Every day since, I have dedicated my life to my compatriots. Today, I am here to reiterate it and to put myself at their service.I am stepping forward to lead this national transition—not out of personal interest but as a servant of the Iranian people.I have a clear plan for transition and national renewal. Our transition and future democracy will be based on these three core principles:

1. Iran’s territorial Integrity2. Individual liberties and equality of all citizens3. Separation of religion and state.

The final form of this future democracy we seek will be for the Iranian people to decide in a national referendum.What I offer is not just a vision for the future of our country but the plan to execute a peaceful, orderly transition. To achieve that, today I am announcing the following initial steps:First, I will convene a national unity summit.This gathering will include activists, dissidents, and groups from across the ideological spectrum who agree to the three principles I outlined above. But it will not be limited just to political groups but business leaders, professionals, experts and other groups with influence across Iranian society.This summit’s objective will be to agree on a roadmap for democratic transition and reconstruction.Second, in parallel to the democratic process, I am developing an economic plan to rebuild Iran.We have already launched the Iran Prosperity Project (IPP) , a comprehensive plan for the economic reconstruction and social stabilization of our country in three phases. The Emergency Phase of the first 4-6 months, the Establishment Phase of 18-24 months, and the Normalization Phase which is long term.In the coming days, my team of experts will publish the plans for the first 100 days after the collapse of the Islamic Republic based on this work.We are bringing together some of the world’s greatest investors, builders, entrepreneurs, and experts who care about Iran and see its immense potential. They stand ready to put in the expertise, the talent, and the capital to rebuild our nation and turn it into one of the world’s most attractive markets.Imagine this new Iran. A free and democratic Iran: living at peace with our neighbors, an engine of growth and opportunity in the region, a beacon of culture, innovation, and pride in the world.It is within our reach.We are proud, ancient, resilient people.The task before us Iranians today is no less than the ones faced by the great leaders. The great unifiers, the great builders of our history like Cyrus the Great.As we embark on the final steps on this path to national revival, to liberation, to peace, we continue to be inspired by him.To my compatriots: This is our moment. I am with you. Let us build this new Iran together.Thank you.

 

[r16]

yeah , right seems to be some balanced answer .

 

[Lexicus]

Reza Pahlavi is calling for Khameini to step down. I don't know what kind of following he has inside Iran, though.

Known derisively as the Shah of Maryland

 

[Ordnael]

Point 3 is fundamental. Enough of Islamic death cults!

 

[r16]

enough of American raised and protected death cults .

 

[SemiLazyGamer]

Iran just launched missiles at the US base in Qatar.

 

[r16]

uh-huh . Guess shouldn't have imagined the Fordow job was a secret deal or whatever , between America and Iran . New Turkey will be very excited ; let us say ı see nothing Turkish in Qatar . Fighting without me is very cool , right ?

 

[EvaDK]

Iran just launched missiles at the US base in Qatar.

... which they warned Qatar about in advance.

The question now is; does Trump possess the mental capacity to understand when escalation is actually used as a means to deescalate? I have doubts.

 

[pob]

Reza Pahlavi is calling for Khameini to step down. I don't know what kind of following he has inside Iran, though.

Pahlavi is literally a CIA asset. He has minimal support in Iran right now, but that could change.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

... which they warned Qatar about in advance.

The question now is; does Trump possess the mental capacity to understand when escalation is actually used as a means to deescalate? I have doubts.

I think he does. He whole thing looks like a show. US attack on Iran while pretty destructive is the minimum to keep Israel happy, US could have done quite more damage very easily, And Iran's answer is a total joke for internal Iranian consumptiom executed with the maximum care to not cause any damage or casualty which had been catastrophic for Iran obviously but detrimental for Trump too.