Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Mega Tsunami]

Well, it appears Britain does, at least, have one friend in Europe. Let’s hope other countries get over the apparent slight of us leaving the EU and become more pragmatic about it, as Poland appears to be.

The Telegraph:

The EU must compromise to win a good Brexit deal for Britain and the rest of the union, warns Polish PM.
The EU must compromise to win a Brexit deal that works for both the UK and the rest of Europe, the Polish Prime Minister warns today ahead of a historic meeting with Theresa May.

In an exclusive article for The Telegraph, Beata Szydlo praises the British-Polish alliance in fighting the Nazis and says that ongoing defence and security co-operation between the two countries is essential, and must be at the heart of any new deal.
Ms Szydlo promises Poland will be a "constructive partner" to the UK as it seeks to win a deal but in a warning to other EU states she said there must be a "good compromise" to guarantee "economic and security cooperation".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...in-good-brexit-deal-britain-rest-union-warns/

 

[Arakhor]

An oversight, Silurian? Never! This was all thought out thoroughly ahead of time and the Government has exacting plans for every circumstance!

I noted that too, Mega Tsunami, but she still says compromise. Currently, the Government's stated aims are to have no freedom of movement, full border control and no loss of single-market/trading access. Even Ms Szydlo must still be rolling her eyes at that idea.

 

[Silurian]

Well some of the people who were campaigning for leave did say we could stay in the EEU.

Maybe they knew.
Maybe thats why Cameron went so quickly, so he could take the blame for the oversight.

 

[really]

If the referendum was only advisory the fact that it omitted the EEA shouldn't be a problem - it would be a decision of parliament.

Timing and triggering an exit would be hard.
Imagine leaving one but not the other.

 

[Silurian]

If the UK stayed in the EEA there would be large reduction in the negotiating points.

You have to give 12 months (if I recall correctly) to leave the EEA so if we could exit it at the same time as the EU.
But there is no mandate in the referendum to leave the EEA.
It does open up a whole can of worms. Since there is no mandate in the referendum then it is down to Parliament.
What if Parliament decides to have a referendum on leaving the EEA.

Added

Nuttall wins UKIP leadership.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

 

[Kyriakos]

Appropriate surname, or not?

Well, ukipall.

 

[Arakhor]

But there is no mandate in the referendum to leave the EEA.
It does open up a whole can of worms. Since there is no mandate in the referendum then it is down to Parliament.
What if Parliament decides to have a referendum on leaving the EEA.

As far as I know, leaving the EU doesn't automatically remove us from the European Court of Justice (ECJ) either and I certainly don't recall being asked about that in the referendum. It seems like there's a whole boatload of stuff about which "the will of the people" is dramatically unclear.

Appropriate surname, or not?

Whilst one could make a joke about nominative determinism here, it's not clever and not even particularly amusing, so I won't.

 

[Silurian]

Well the ECJ was not on the ballot as well and it would be good to be still able to take EU members to court if they break EU law and it causes damage to the UK. The human rights court is nothing to do with the EU so obviously has nothing to do with the referendum.

From Wiki

"The European Court of Justice (ECJ), officially just the Court of Justice (French: Cour de Justice), is the highest court in the European Union in matters of European Union law. As a part of the Court of Justice of the European Union it is tasked with interpreting EU law and ensuring its equal application across all EU member states.[1] The Court was established in 1952 and is based in Luxembourg. It is composed of one judge per member state – currently 28 – although it normally hears cases in panels of three, five or 15[2] judges. The court has been led by president Koen Lenaerts since 2015.[1]
"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Court_of_Justice

"The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR; French: Cour européenne des droits de l’homme) is a supra-national or international court established by the European Convention on Human Rights. It hears applications alleging that a contracting state has breached one or more of the human rights provisions concerning civil and political rights set out in the Convention and its protocols. An application can be lodged by an individual, a group of individuals or one or more of the other contracting states, and, besides judgments, the Court can also issue advisory opinions. The Convention was adopted within the context of the Council of Europe, and all of its 47 member states are contracting parties to the Convention. The Court is based in Strasbourg, France.
"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Court_of_Human_Rights

 

[Kyriakos]

^I have to suppose that during your campaigns the politicians very clearly spoke of stuf both in the EEA and ECJ being cancelled if Leave was the outcome. Afterall, your new PM even oversaw some plan to dismantle part of the ECJ regardless
And surely those who voted for leave didn't wish to keep having lowly european peoples living freely in the isles :/

 

[Silurian]

Different leave campaigners said different things. They contradicted each other. There was no manifesto.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Different leave campaigners said different things. They contradicted each other. There was no manifesto.

Quite so.

And the position on the EEA from the Remain campaigners was little clearer.

At times they seemed to say that leaving the EU automatically meant leaving the EEA and that if we left the EU we could not
have free trade, and, sometimes even just trade!, with the EU at all. While leaving the EU intrinsically meant leaving the European
Community and the European Economic Community which had been effectively subsumed within the European Union, I have
the suspicion that many campaigners on both sides simply did not understand the distinction between the EEC/EC and the EEA.

Frankly I see little benefit in remaining in the EEA, but the referendum did not mention leaving the EEA,
so Theresa May is, pending a particular clarification at law, under no obligation there.

Questions I would ask are what does the EEA state about:

(a) clash between EU law and UK law
(b) supremacy of ECJ
(c) mandating EU tariffs on imports from outside the EU and EEA
(d) prohibiting trade deals with third party members
(e) permitting capping of excessive net migration

My very fast scanning of EEA documents so far implies that (c) does not apply with, (d) is not prohibited by,
and (e) capping is not permitted by, the EEA. However my experience is that my fast scans are unreliable.

The wikipedia is not helpful in that it implies that the prime difference is that membership of the
EEA merely does not require adherence to the common agricultural or the common fisheries policy.
This is incomplete, for instance the EEA is not an embroyonic military alliance in the way the EU is.

When the UK joined the EEA it was in the context of the UK being a member of the EEC/EC.
Now the question we have is does leaving the EU which involves revocation of EEC/EC also
by removing the context on which the UK entered the EEA also terminate EEA membership?

I am quite unclear on that and await the view of their lordships.

 

[EnglishEdward]

..the fact that it omitted the EEA shouldn't be a problem - it would be a decision of parliament.

I agree.

The problem is that the conservatives want some capping of net migration and
that will likely involve amending the EEA and the other members may not agree.

It is a strange business; much of the EU is vehemently opposed to any infringement
of free movement because it fears the very worse e.g. entry bar and repatriation of its nationals
while the UK which is (including Leavers) generally very happy with quite a large amount of free
movement also fears the worse for the future e.g. further unsustainable inward migration surges.

And this is not helped by many of the Remainers painting the Leavers as rasists and xenophobes
which has the result of escalating tensions and in its own way preventing win win compromises.

 

[Silurian]

Many labour voters supported vote leave to reduce immigration as well.

Immigration is not as big a problem as it is painted, the problem is the increase in low waged precarious jobs.
Unemployment is low but the jobs being created for the British and immigrants are declining in quality.

On the BBC Radio 4 Today programme they had two "experts" talking about the EEA. One said breaks could take place under the EEA the other no.

 

[Takhisis]

There is no mention of leaving the EEA which is a separate entity and has its own exit process, with Article 127 to trigger leaving.

Given that the non-binding vote is now held to be a clear mandate to bypass Parliament, I'm sure someone will glue the words ‘EEA’ in what is called an allonge.

Many labour voters supported vote leave to reduce immigration as well.

Well, no, that wasn't on the ballot.

 

[Silurian]

I agree it was not on the ballot.

 

[Arakhor]

Only leaving the EU was on the ballot, which makes the increasingly shrill calls from the usual quarters to obey "the will of the people" all the more suspect.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Given that the non-binding vote is now held to be a clear mandate to bypass Parliament,

Well, it is regarded as a clear mandate in the tabloids.

For most of us the referendum vote was the authorisation for the Prime Minister to send
the Article 50 letter and formally start the process of leaving the European Union.

I'm sure someone will glue the words ‘EEA’ in what is called an allonge.

Some will try and likely fail.

A simple amendment to the EEA permitting signatory states to apply quotas to limit net
migration to perhaps 1/3 of a per cent (which for the UK would be 200,000) per year would do.

But the other states may not agree that so the 2020 UK election may be fought on leaving the EEA.

And then we can all enjoy seing an excited Nigel Farage on the TV?!

 

[Arakhor]

And then we can all enjoy seing an excited Nigel Farage on the TV?!

God, I hope not. I already want to do impolite things every time I see him in the press. I don't need him on TV too.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

God, I hope not. I already want to do impolite things every time I see him in the press. I don't need him on TV too.

I'm sure you don't mean that the way it read, but if so make sure you have tissues to hand.

 

[Arakhor]

Behold! The ambiguity of gracefully veiled intentions!