IS

[Timsup2nothin]

Are you implying that IS will never incorporate Saudi Arabia? They were not contained in Syria. They may not be contained in Iraq. Is the UN going to wait until Amman or Jordan is part of IS?

Do you have any idea how heavily armed the Saudi Arabian government is? ISIS are about half a step up from rock throwing rabble, and they are getting bombed back down that half step as we speak. The Saudi Arabian government isn't worried about a rock throwing rabble in Iraq. They have their own rock throwing rabble, and they aren't even worried about them.

 

[kochman]

Not to mention the millions of shia between IS and S Arabia

 

[Borachio]

Yet history seems to be positively littered with highly motivated but technologically relatively poorly equiped people seeing off a well-equiped adversary.

I expect you could point to many cases of the reverse as well, though. I'm just trying to indicate that good equipment doesn't necessarily guarantee success.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yet history seems to be positively littered with highly motivated but technologically relatively poorly equiped people seeing off a well-equiped adversary.

I expect you could point to many cases of the reverse as well, though. I'm just trying to indicate that good equipment doesn't necessarily guarantee success.

You're right...when it comes to defense. Israel's huge advantage in technology certainly isn't making Gaza go away, and the US turned Iraq into a quagmire without accomplishing much. Afghanistan was in the stone age when the USSR invaded them, was still in the stone age when the US invaded them, and will apparently be casually waiting in the stone age for the next band of idiots to invade them.

But if the shoe is on the other foot...I don't care how many guys with sticks and rocks charge across the border of a country with a well equipped modern military, they will not get far.

 

[Borachio]

I agree. The only way ISIS is likely to make progress in Saudi Arabia (which would be a rich prize for them) is by subverting the local population, I think. How likely this might be is debatable. Out of a population of 26 million what proportion might be susceptible?

Then there's the on-going conflict in Yemen to consider.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. ISIS has yet to establish even a small stable Caliphate.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I agree. The only way ISIS is likely to make progress in Saudi Arabia (which would be a rich prize for them) is by subverting the local population, I think. How likely this might be is debatable. Out of a population of 26 million what proportion might be susceptible?

Then there's the on-going conflict in Yemen to consider.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. ISIS has yet to establish even a small stable Caliphate.

Probably most of that 26 million would be susceptible...but as stated the Saudi Arabian government is armed to the teeth specifically because they have to be able maintain control of their own rock throwing rabble. Adding more rock throwing rabble from outside, or giving their rock throwing rabble some outside name like ISSA, wouldn't make much difference.

 

[Borachio]

Yet the Iraqis were also well-equiped by the US, weren't they? Along come a few thousand foreigners and the Iraqi army evaporates, leaving tonnes of modern equipment behind. The same couldn't happen elsewhere?

When was the last time the Saudis were engaged in a serious conflict? (I ask this for information, not rhetorically.)

edit: to the best of my knowledge, 1991.

 

[Ajidica]

Yet the Iraqis were also well-equiped by the US, weren't they? Along come a few thousand foreigners and the Iraqi army evaporates, leaving tonnes of modern equipment behind. The same couldn't happen elsewhere?

When was the last time the Saudis were engaged in a serious conflict? (I ask this for information, not rhetorically.)

First Gulf War, but their performance then was pretty lackluster.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yet the Iraqis were also well-equiped by the US, weren't they? Along come a few thousand foreigners and the Iraqi army evaporates,leaving tonnes of modern equipment behind.. The same couldn't happen elsewhere?

You have to look at who was well equipped. If you create a falsely democratized state by forcing the people to 'vote' for a regime they don't actually want, then call some fraction of the general populace 'military' and arm them with no particular way to pay them, what have you got? Unpredictable armed citizenry.

If you take some portion of the population, selected for their loyalty, then treat them to a far more lavish life in return for their service in defending the despotism, you have a much different situation. If this ISIS had rolled across the Syrian border in 1990 the Republican guard would have crushed them like a bug.

If they make a move on Saudi Arabia and three quarters of the population backs them...there will be a lot of dead bugs...because the armed ones are all contained in that loyal quarter.

 

[classical_hero]

Yet the Iraqis were also well-equiped by the US, weren't they? Along come a few thousand foreigners and the Iraqi army evaporates, leaving tonnes of modern equipment behind. The same couldn't happen elsewhere?

When was the last time the Saudis were engaged in a serious conflict? (I ask this for information, not rhetorically.)

edit: to the best of my knowledge, 1991.

The Shiites saw no reason to fight over Sunni land, which i why they didn't bother to fight. But when IS has been against a capable fighting force they lose all the time. The have only had victories against forces weaker than them or against civilians. Hardly an army to bring fear into any nation that wants to fight them. Just shows how little resistance they have so far.

 

[Tigranes]

Not true. They were able to capture Mosul dam from very organized Kurdish army, and they are firmly entrenched around Kirkuk, defeating attack after another. If not for airstrikes I am not sure Kurds would recupture that dam. 1.5 millions been displaced becase of IS so far. What has to happen before UN intervention -- fall of Irbil?

 

[kramerfan86]

I think IS will really struggle to advance much further, they arent making a ton of progress into the Kurdish or Shiite homelands, in Syria they have greatly benefited from Assad's disinterest in engaging them yet, and their territory is mainly desert so their progress looks much more impressive than it really is.

 

[mangxema]

I would just like to point out that you took exception to me calling them 'particularly mad' and went on to say they would certainly opt for suicide bombers as a main point of strategy. Not necessarily saying that contradiction isn't reasonable enough when dealing with the particularly mad...

Timsup2nothin, I think we're on the same page. The thing that I find frustrating is that people tend to just shrug when a crazy person does something crazy, as if there's no rationale behind it. Most crazy people are actually mostly sane; they just have some weird beliefs that lead to weird conclusions. That process is mostly logical though, and we can guess with a reasonable amount of confidence what their strategy is going to be.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Timsup2nothin, I think we're on the same page. The thing that I find frustrating is that people tend to just shrug when a crazy person does something crazy, as if there's no rationale behind it. Most crazy people are actually mostly sane; they just have some weird beliefs that lead to weird conclusions. That process is mostly logical though, and we can guess with a reasonable amount of confidence what their strategy is going to be.

I tried to make it clear I was agreeing with you. When I said 'particularly mad' I probably should have said 'particularly violent'. They aren't necessarily any crazier than a lot of other groups, it's just that their weird beliefs tend to show up in actions that even routinely violent people have to shake their heads at.

 

[Tigranes]

DailyBeast(c) Foley Abduction Linked to British Jihadi Kidnapping Ring
Weeks before Foley’s abduction in 2012, alleged members of a jihadi kidnapping network tied to ISIS were arrested and held in London for kidnapping Western journalists, only to later be released by Britain’s legal system.

Would you look at that.. It also appears that US came very close in releasing captives with special operation earlier this summer and that group pressed for ransom even earlier.

Which leads me to the question -- wouldn't one negotiate with the devil himselve for the sake of 1 single life?

And also supports my point -- jihad in digital age so close to West's base in a rich place like Middle East is a terminal cancer that is bound to grow until it's too late to stop it damaging the "base" itself. And when people talk about rulling over desert -- ME is desert outside of Fertile Creschent.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Which leads me to the question -- wouldn't one negotiate with the devil himselve for the sake of 1 single life?

Depends. Do you have any reason to believe that what you give up for the one won't be used to take ten?

 

[Borachio]

Which leads me to the question -- wouldn't one negotiate with the devil himselve for the sake of 1 single life?

"Once you pay the Danegeld you'll never be rid of the Dane".

Though I do favour listening to one's enemies.

 

[classical_hero]

https://twitter.com/jfoleyjourno/with_replies
If you look at his twitter feed you can see he was supportive of the Sunni rebels who later became ISIS and later Islamic state. So as a reward for his support, they cut his head.

 

[Borachio]

I thought they claim the beheading was done in retaliation for airstrikes, not as a reward for support.

 

[Agent327]

https://twitter.com/jfoleyjourno/with_replies
If you look at his twitter feed you can see he was supportive of the Sunni rebels who later became ISIS and later Islamic state. So as a reward for his support, they cut his head.

Selective reading? Perhaps you can point out which tweets show Foley's 'support' for Sunni rebels? Because I don't see it.

Possibly, just possibly, the fact that he was a US journalist might have something more to do with his ultimate beheading.