Lord David Owen
Former British foreign secretary
I believe that Damascus, the capital of Syria, could fall within months. I do not want to be alarmist, but we should prepare for the worst. According to a reliable source in the area I have known for many years, the Islamic State is already in its suburbs at Hajar al-Aswad, about 2.5 miles from the center, and is well-placed but waiting. It is in the outskirts of Homs, too, Syria's third-largest city.
ISIS is focusing for the moment on controlling four key elements in the Syrian economy: cotton, wheat, gas and oil. Its priorities are economic strength, consolidating the caliphate and sophisticated publicity.
But sooner rather than later Damascus will fall and ISIS will then move into the chaos. It is imperative -- for Russia and Iran as well as America and Europe -- that Damascus is saved. The question is how.
What is desperately needed is a regional mandate under chapter VIII of the UN charter to maintain international peace and stabilize the conflict in and around Damascus: a mandate to administer and defend this multi-faith capital city and provide for a transition over a couple of years to restore a stable state and prepare for democratic, internationally supervised elections.
Such a mandate for Damascus cannot be physically or politically run by the UN or NATO, nor by Russia, which supports Assad. It can only come from one country in the region -- Jordan -- with a credible military and administrative capacity that could be supported and backed by regional countries. A mandate with the full international authority of the UN Security Council has a reasonable chance of being successful.