First off, Neal already has writing, which is a pre-req for CoL no matter which path you take. If it's assumed that myst needs to be taken ASAP for city growth regardless of the tech path, then math>currency costs 1400
more than med>PH (1260 more if he skips myst and goes directly to math>currency). Alpha>currency adds another 150
to that. So there's a huge difference in cost (which means time).
The upside of the alpha>currency>CoL path is that each tech enables you to get the next one, and all are good trade bait. Alpha lets you build research, so as long as you can make money at 0% or above (and I believe that ORG makes this possible with the current empire size), you can tech to currency by building research. Currency gives you a further increase in
, which will get you to CoL. Alpha and currency are great trade bait, as long as you beat the AIs to them.
So how far away is alphabet at a sustainable tech rate (we've got 5 turns left at 100% if we skip myst, and alpha takes 10 turns at the current rate
)?
The upside of the myst>med>PH path is that it's way cheaper, it enables the Oracle (I agree with Rolo in thinking it's a pipe dream - Qin is IND and has marble at that juicy coastal site SE of Beijing, so I think you'll be lucky if it's not already built by the time you get to PH, which is more than 500
away). It also allows you to run a priest specialist to get a shrine (which will take a long time with 1 specialist and no GP-boosting wonder, and the pool heavily polluted with spy gpp). The downside is that unless you're very very lucky and can snag the oracle, none of these techs will add to your ability to tech to CoL in the way that both alpha and currency do. Teching CoL (980
) while running at 10-20% on the slider will take forever, and you'll be left hopelessly in the dust.
Good luck!
EDIT: I see that Phil725 made pretty much the same points while I was typing.