Korean peace in our time

[Timsup2nothin]

Going by past behaviours, I don't think we'll see a denuclearized NK unless US pulls back. And I don't see a scenario where the US pulls back willingly, given it has other interests in the region.

The point is that the US pulling back is a two party choice. RoK can kick them out with a one year notice.

 

[inthesomeday]

The DPRK shouldn’t denuclearize unless the US does.

 

[SS-18 ICBM]

the perception is already that all the US (Trump) can do is get out of the way and let it happen... or screw it up. I'm betting heavily on Trump getting stamped with the latter.

What about trying to take credit for it, in the vein of his saber rattling finally bringing NK to the table?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

What about trying to take credit for it, in the vein of his saber rattling finally bringing NK to the table?

That works with his idiot followers. The rest of us understand that the leadership of DPRK has wanted to get to the table for decades. They were turned down by Obama, Bush, and Clinton...maybe by the Bush before that. What Trump's saber rattling has accomplished is scaring the RoK to the table...where they will probably make a deal with DPRK and China to freeze the US out. Thanks Trump.

 

[Kyriakos]

Kim needs to lose weight. He is almost as fat as Trump.

Re Korea: Re-uniting it is clearly not in the interest of the US (military-industrialists). For starters, S Korea has become rich and democratic, but also hugely bizarre as a result of its status as a protectorate. Korean christians and their circumcision at 18 not being the only example of the strangeness of this hybrid, but perhaps a very stark one.
A united Korea would be in another sphrere of interest/control, maybe an east asian one (eg Japanese, or even Chinese or even Russian in the future) but not the US one.

 

[red_elk]

Leaving SK is not in US interests and they have all means to prevent SK from kicking them out.
This will be a major factor preventing reunification in short and mid-term future.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Leaving SK is not in US interests and they have all means to prevent SK from kicking them out.
This will be a major factor preventing reunification in short and mid-term future.

What means are those?

From US/RoK Mutual Defense Treaty, Article IV: The Republic of Korea grants, and the United States of America accepts, the right to dispose United States land, air and sea forces in and about the territory of the Republic of Korea as determined by mutual agreement.

Sounds like the RoK can just disagree with having US forces in country and call for their removal.

From US/RoK Mutual Defense Treaty, Article IV: This Treaty shall remain in force indefinitely. Either Party may terminate it one year after notice has been given to the other Party.

If the US doesn't think Article IV is sufficient, RoK can invoke this and one year later the US forces are effectively an invasion.

 

[Azem.Ocram]

I hope to see Korea reunited but it will hurt the South Korean economy for a few years (at least) until health and education of the North Koreans catches up. I don’t care particularly if the US is involved or not but I know The D’ump isn’t helping (besides pushing South Korea away from us and towards cooperating with their neighbors).

 

[red_elk]

Sounds like the RoK can just disagree with having US forces in country and call for their removal.

Technically they can, it's just not worth to lose important ally for them at this moment.
And the US can make the decision to kick them out to be costly, through diplomatic and economic pressure.

 

[Birdjaguar]

...except he see nukes as the key to peace and to staying in power.

idk, If Kim can strike a deal with SK to stay in power by having more normal relations/trade with the south and demilitarizing the border (read as: get the US out), then that would be a real step forward. It could lead to unification later. The question is would the US go along? It certainly would improve things in the area. With the US out of Korea, Kim might feel less paranoid.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Technically they can, it's just not worth to lose important ally for them at this moment.
And the US can make the decision to kick them out to be costly, through diplomatic and economic pressure.

The US's ability to apply diplomatic and economic pressure has been reduced dramatically, and China by most measures would make a better ally and trading partner.

 

[Lexicus]

I hope to see Korea reunited but it will hurt the South Korean economy for a few years (at least) until health and education of the North Koreans catches up.

A few years at least? It's going to take many generations, if it ever happens.

With the US out of Korea, Kim might feel less paranoid.

More importantly with the US out of Korea one of the most important planks of the regime's ideological self-justification is largely gone.

 

[Arwon]

What about trying to take credit for it, in the vein of his saber rattling finally bringing NK to the table?

If anything it seems as if the threat of him not supporting the South anymore (or just of being too unpredictable and unreliable to depend on) might have pushed them to make concessions, maybe as part of a realignment a little closer to China.

 

[Sommerswerd]

A few years at least? It's going to take many generations, if it ever happens. More importantly with the US out of Korea one of the most important planks of the regime's ideological self-justification is largely gone.

Trump may represent the best opportunity for reunification since the war started, in the sense that he is the most unreliable ally South Korea has ever had, the most useless negotiating partner the two Koreas have ever had, and the best incentive China has ever had to enlarge and enrich its closest trading partner.

In other words... Trump may be the greatest incentive for Korean reunification... of all time... OF ALL TIME...

Anyway... I think that a guarantee of "President for Life" to Kim, coupled with an agreement to Democratic elections thereafter would be enough to secure unification... the next problem becomes gerrymandering enough to get the Kims out of power in the elections following Kim's demise... but they can cross that blackpinkle when they come to it.

 

[SupremacyKing2]

I think Kim Jong Un is negotiating for peace now for 2 reasons:
1) North Korea's economy is worse than we know and is close to total humanitarian collapse if the status quo continues.
2) North Korea has a few working nuclear bombs now that it feels it can negotiate from a position of strength and equality. Without nukes, North Korea would basically have to grovel on the ground begging for South Korea to save it and they would get nothing. With nukes, South Korea and the US have to treat North Korea with respect so North Korea can negotiate as an equal and get something in exchange for peace. And the nuclear tests and threats were just delay tactics to scare the US from using the military option just long enough for them to finish their nuke program.

 

[red_elk]

The only thing nukes give North Korea, is ~99% guarantee that nobody will attack them in near future.
Except that, it doesn't add much to their negotiating power and certainly won't make USA treat them as equal in negotiations.

 

[SupremacyKing2]

The only thing nukes give North Korea, is ~99% guarantee that nobody will attack them in near future.
Except that, it doesn't add much to their negotiating power and certainly won't make USA treat them as equal in negotiations.

But that's the whole point. Without nukes, the US could have bombed the crap out of North Korea and then they would have been forced to negotiate for peace as a crushed and defeated nation. With nukes, they avoid that, and can negotiate from a position of strength. Nukes are about saying to South Korea and the US "you can't solve the problem by just bombing us into oblivion, so you have to negotiate for peace and give us something."

 

[Kozmos]

The point is that the US pulling back is a two party choice. RoK can kick them out with a one year notice.

I mean sure, but that means they would have their necks out in the open for a protracted period of time, depending on how the negotiations pan out. So South Korea would stand next to two countries that are expressly not allied to it and depending on for negotiations to go their way without any kind of leverage. Reunification certainly isn't desired as an overnight thing (would be disastrous on SK economy, East Germany but so much worse), but there is also the matter of there being two separate ruling elites at the moment. One will have to go away in the future and Kim is always walking a fine line in regard of maintaining his grip on power although it doesn't look like that on the outside. A lot more twists and turns can occur here.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I mean sure, but that means they would have their necks out in the open for a protracted period of time, depending on how the negotiations pan out. So South Korea would stand next to two countries that are expressly not allied to it and depending on for negotiations to go their way without any kind of leverage. Reunification certainly isn't desired as an overnight thing (would be disastrous on SK economy, East Germany but so much worse), but there is also the matter of there being two separate ruling elites at the moment. One will have to go away in the future and Kim is always walking a fine line in regard of maintaining his grip on power although it doesn't look like that on the outside. A lot more twists and turns can occur here.

Sooooooo...we are pretending that China has been sleeping this whole time and is not negotiating with the Republic of Korea?

Let's put you in charge of South Korea and give you a choice.

First, the unalterable: there is the DPRK right there. Reunification as a someday project is a consideration, but as an immediate goal peaceful coexistence and lowering tensions through trade and mutual support is the priority. A 'big peace enforcer' is pretty much required.

Now, here are the choices:

A) You can go with the US for the enforcer role, which requires DPRK to draw in an alternate enforcer for their side since they will never trust the US. The US is totally unpredictable, since every four years they are liable to change directions completely, up to and including just arbitrarily breaking treaty commitments that they have made as a nation to long standing allies such as you. Their terms to act in this role include allowing them to possess large military bases in your country that are treated as their sovereign territory.

B) You can go with China for the enforcer role. China is motivated by they do not want a war on their borders so they will impartially oppose aggression from either side. Their proximity means that they will not need any bases in your territory. Their government is stable.

Which would you prefer?

 

[Hrothbern]

I mean sure, but that means they would have their necks out in the open for a protracted period of time, depending on how the negotiations pan out. So South Korea would stand next to two countries that are expressly not allied to it and depending on for negotiations to go their way without any kind of leverage. Reunification certainly isn't desired as an overnight thing (would be disastrous on SK economy, East Germany but so much worse), but there is also the matter of there being two separate ruling elites at the moment. One will have to go away in the future and Kim is always walking a fine line in regard of maintaining his grip on power although it doesn't look like that on the outside. A lot more twists and turns can occur here.

The domestic strenght of the position of Kim will be crucial I think.
But he has managed so far to take over the reigns of the country, to get his rockets and nukes. He was loud and clear on the international stage with shouts and threats.
And that all in the relatively short time he was in power..... I think that will be seen as a major achievement on the domestic front.

If he can add a "peace in our time" including a substantial economical prosperity perspective for the people of NK, financed by SK and the international community, he will be in a strong enough position to last long.