Mafia/NOTW Statistics

[choxorn]

By the power of my ancient necromancy, I say, "RISE, OH DEAD STATISTICS THREAD AND HAUNT THE FORUMS FROM WHICH YOU HAVE BEEN BURIED!"

Zack Mafia IV:

Town: 27 (atheotes, azzaman333, BigTin, BSmith1068, choxorn, CivCube, classical_hero, DaveShack, Dreadnought, Dumanios, ELITEOFWARMAN8, GhostWriter16, Gone 3 the Celt, JoanK, Joecoolyo, johnhughthom, Kennigit, Mat93, mayor, mechaerik, Mergle, NedimNapoleon, robbiecon, SamSniped, The Black Knigh, Verarde, Visorslash)

Mafia: 7 (Buddhafish, MartinLuther, NinjaCow64, spaceman98, Takhisis, topsecret, Xenoneb)

Won: 27 (atheotes, azzaman333, BigTin, BSmith1068, choxorn, CivCube, classical_hero, DaveShack, Dreadnought, Dumanios, ELITEOFWARMAN8, GhostWriter16, Gone 3 the Celt, JoanK, Joecoolyo, johnhughthom, Kennigit, Mat93, mayor, mechaerik, Mergle, NedimNapoleon, robbiecon, SamSniped, The Black Knigh, Verarde, Visorslash)

Lost: 7 (Buddhafish, MartinLuther, NinjaCow64, spaceman98, Takhisis, topsecret, Xenoneb)

Survived: 3 (johnhughthom, mayor, Verarde)

 

[Takhisis]

<performs mystical gestures> Arise, arise, O thread once killed, may you live again!

 

[choxorn]

To-do list:

Smurf Mafia
Smilie Mafia
MNOTW 15: The Academy
D&D 1
D&D 2
Halo Mafia
D&D 3
Qarth
Darths and Droids
Holy Crusade

There's also Assassin's Ball, which died but it seemed like it was all but over, and I'm not sure how to count that.

 

[Buddhafish]

Well the mafia won, but classical never posted the final update.

 

[Visorslash]

Uh, we were mafia too. Me and 3 others...

 

[Buddhafish]

I was in that mafia group in Assasssins Ball. I think SamSniped was as well.

 

[Mat93]

I was in that mafia group in Assasssins Ball. I think SamSniped was as well.

Me/You/SamSniped/BSmith were the 4 scum.

Visor was innocent to the best of my knowledge...and I think I only attacked him once, not even first night as well, not up to standard.

 

[BSmith1068]

Yeah, that was our team. The game was over save the final write-up.

 

[Visorslash]

No, I'm not joking, I was mafia. I was on a team with three others.

I think we were all mafia?

 

[Mat93]

No, I'm not joking, I was mafia. I was on a team with three others.

I think we were all mafia?

Maybe...but then why would the game be over at that point? Unless it was impossible for the other teams to kill our team, but that would be difficult to work out to be sure of (more than possible though), and everyone was revealed as town.

Idk. I don't particularly fancy reverse building the setup (with limited info, might not even be possible).

 

[Visorslash]

Maybe...but then why would the game be over at that point? Unless it was impossible for the other teams to kill our team, but that would be difficult to work out to be sure of (more than possible though), and everyone was revealed as town.

Idk. I don't particularly fancy reverse building the setup (with limited info, might not even be possible).

It was probably a troll setup, everyone thought they were mafia, but revealed as innocent. I know he has hosted similar concepts and such before.

 

[choxorn]

If it's a troll setup, then I can't count it anyway, especially if everyone's mafia.

 

[topsecret]

When was the game? I have all my PM's archived, since forever.

 

[choxorn]

Smurf Mafia:

Town: 19 (johnhughthom, Autolycus, azzaman333, Zack, Earthling, BSmith1068, Turquoiside, Optical, Warman, topsecret, Jarrema, choxorn, CivCube, Mat93, Dreadnought, JoanK, DaveShack, Xenoneb, robbiecon)

Mafia: 3 (NinjaCow64, MartinLuther, Verarde)

Neutral: 1 (askthepizzaguy)

Won: 15 (johnhughthom, Autolycus, azzaman333, Zack, Earthling, BSmith1068, Turquoiside, Warman, topsecret, Jarrema, choxorn, CivCube, Dreadnought, JoanK, robbiecon)

Lost: 4 (NinjaCow64, MartinLuther, Verarde, askthepizzaguy)

Survived: 3 (Autolycus, johnhughthom, azzaman333)

Replaced: 3 (Optical, DaveShack, Xenoneb)

WoG'ed: 1 (Mat93)

 

[Zack]

It seems like there's been a concerning downward trend of player interest in games recently, whether real or perceived. I collected some data from all large mafia games run on CFC to test this theory (I excluded NOTW because there is an undeniable and obvious downward trend in sign-ups for NOTWs, and the patterns of activity for NOTW and mafia do not necessarily correlate).

Spoiler :

As you can see, there are clear troughs and crests. You might as well rename the graph as the US economy, dipping in and out of recessions. We recently had a really good streak going, with eight of the last nine games before Thing 2 having a number of players well above the trendline, and either right at or above the overall mean. The lack of interest for Thing 2 is a clear outlier, and if historic trends continue, we should be in a "recession" right about now anyways, one that started with Darths and Droids, which despite only having 30 players was nonetheless active and a definite success.

EDIT: I should also note that ~20 games is a small sample size, and if you remove The Thing 2 (which looks like it's dead, and technically isn't even a large game anyways), the trendline is pretty much a horizontal line, with the slight downward trend only existing because of the LOTR outlier at the beginning and the Atto Ngoogol and A Tale of One City games. Large games have consistently averaged around ~35/36 sign-ups (including reserves).

TL;DR: Player interest in signing up for large games should pick up shortly, and there is no reason to think otherwise.

 

[Zack]

If there are other such mafia trends you folks are curious about, I might whip up something similar for it.

 

[Dreadnought]

A mean of 35 and deviation of ~7 is to be expected, no?

 

[azzaman333]

It might be useful to compare the number of player to the time of year, see if there's a typical time of year where interest drops/rises.

 

[Kennigit]

theres no point to really list the 2 sigma points is there

mean and std dev good enough

 

[Zack]

theres no point to really list the 2 sigma points is there

mean and std dev good enough

I just copied the template from some of my other files, and it's a good indicator of outliers (since 95% of all samples should fall within two standard deviations).