Money. Doing it Right this Time.

Despite my sarcasm, you do make a few good points and have a few true claims in your post. However, you would benefit by making the distinction between "money" and "credit," also between "deposits" and "reserves". There is certainly far more credit in the world than there is money, and I don't see the problem with that.

Deflation can indeed cause defaults as the real value of debt, and deflation is indeed usually not an appealing prospect. There we are in substantive agreement.
 
Ah, defence by sarcasm and deviation - how I miss these intellectual discussions.

Then add to it. This thread is an attempt to make a serious discussion on the subject of money as an introduction for those people who have little background on the issue. It is not the place for debunked conspiracy theories that have not shown their truth in 800 years now.
 
See, I can't get behind the premise that people are irrational. Boundedly rational, sure. Beset by information and transactions costs, surely. But actively irrational? Nah.


I wanted to hit this in more detail after thinking of it for a time. You're wrong, but how to convince you that you are wrong?

In the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis multiple investment banks and other financial companies that had previously had strong records of risk control actually excluded their risk analysis officers from meetings where complex new financial products and riskier strategies were being discussed. None of those companies today exist as independent organizations. Several had histories of 100 years or more of prudent risk management, and survived the Great Depression. Was that rational behavior? Several of the financial companies when faced with a lack of liquidity due to the deteriorating quality of their assets continued to insist that they faced no long term financial risk, and should be loaned money and left alone by creditors, and continued to do so until they were compelled into bankruptcy. These companies had changed their business models to be utterly dependent on short term financing, including the shortest term financing of the overnight repo markets. And yet assets were long term and illiquid. Is that rational behavior? One of the CEOs of the industry, I think it was the Lehman guy, but I don't recall for sure, had a net worth close to a billion dollars, but it was nearly all in his own company's stock options. The theory is that executives who have stock in their company will manage for the long term survival of their company. Yet this guy stayed the course until his own $billion was gone. Was that rational behavior? Congress, the executive branch, and the Fed under intense lobbying by the financial industry deregulated to the point where the government was essentially powerless to control anything, and then was left footing the bill for a cleanup. Was that rational? Homeowners took on ever higher debt loads despite stagnant incomes and never even saw the problem coming. Was that rational? Banks made ever riskier loans without a thought to the consequences. Was that rational? Financial companies evaded insurance regulations to create a way for people to insure financial assets that they did not own. And had no concept of the risk that they were letting themselves in for in the process. Is that rational?

Within bounded rationality you might make a case for the short term rationality of any one of these and many other actions. But the aggregate of it was a profoundly irrational system.

A profoundly irrational market result.
 
Then add to it. This thread is an attempt to make a serious discussion on the subject of money as an introduction for those people who have little background on the issue. It is not the place for debunked conspiracy theories that have not shown their truth in 800 years now.

Our current system was organised after world war 2, slightly adjusted following our recent economic troubles, but yes basically the same system as eight centuries ago. An 800 year old system of trade and barter is in need of ground up, internationally agreed reform for it to function sustainably in a world where we now have the capacity to extract in 1 year more than the whole last 800 years added together. Continous exponetional growth as encouraged by the system is unsustainable.

It doesn't even keep the world from starvation, so clearly something is amiss if the rich continue to get ever richer, we extract more and more, while there are people out there starving while I waste my time posting this message on my iphone to make you guys wake up and start looking at the bigger picture.


You guys discussing the details of the financial markets and human behaviour in the system are missing the bigger picture by focusing on micro-climates of the system. If we don't change the system humanity is pretty much doomed. Not because it's a bad system, if we were living in the 1600s, but now it is. And it's not just the economic system, although that is of course the primary thing that needs updating.

Unfortunately we live in the world where everyone wants to dominate everyone else. Our system is a way for the powerful to dominate the weak. The Americans copied the British, and now the Chinese and Indians and other emerging powers are following their trail.
 
Our current system was organised after world war 2, slightly adjusted following our recent economic troubles, but yes basically the same system as eight centuries ago. An 800 year old system of trade and barter is in need of ground up, internationally agreed reform for it to function sustainably in a world where we now have the capacity to extract in 1 year more than the whole last 800 years added together. Continous exponetional growth as encouraged by the system is unsustainable.

It doesn't even keep the world from starvation, so clearly something is amiss if the rich continue to get ever richer, we extract more and more, while there are people out there starving while I waste my time posting this message on my iphone to make you guys wake up and start looking at the bigger picture.


You guys discussing the details of the financial markets and human behaviour in the system are missing the bigger picture by focusing on micro-climates of the system. If we don't change the system humanity is pretty much doomed. Not because it's a bad system, if we were living in the 1600s, but now it is. And it's not just the economic system, although that is of course the primary thing that needs updating.

Unfortunately we live in the world where everyone wants to dominate everyone else. Our system is a way for the powerful to dominate the weak. The Americans copied the British, and now the Chinese and Indians and other emerging powers are following their trail.


You can make a lot of criticisms of the economic system as a whole. And many of them will be valid criticisms. However, that does not in any way make a case that money and banking are the, or one of, the root causes of the problem.
 
Here's another challenging question:

Since market monetarist are generally positively disposed towards the efficient market hypothesis, does it follow that they take the rise in gold price as an indication that inflation will take off at some point? How do they resolve the contradiction between this and the relatively tame indication of expected inflation from things such as the TIPS spreads?
 
You can make a lot of criticisms of the economic system as a whole. And many of them will be valid criticisms. However, that does not in any way make a case that money and banking are the, or one of, the root causes of the problem.

Money as it is utilised in the current international economic system is the root cause of the problem, without a shadow of a doubt.

Despite my sarcasm, you do make a few good points and have a few true claims in your post. However, you would benefit by making the distinction between "money" and "credit," also between "deposits" and "reserves". There is certainly far more credit in the world than there is money, and I don't see the problem with that.

Deflation can indeed cause defaults as the real value of debt, and deflation is indeed usually not an appealing prospect. There we are in substantive agreement.

The problem with that is private companies are profiting from a necessary economic function, unnecessarily. Look at it like this: why should we be paying interest at all, if all money is created without actually being backed by anything tangible (in essence)? Seeing as loans are in the most part created out of thin air (and in some cases entirely out of thin air), what's the point in having banks (in the sense that you and I know them) any more? None, I tell you.

Government can provide finance to business and people. And people can either save wealth securely in a 'bank', or invest it at risk in a venture, or spend it, as they see fit. Just like we do now. Only difference: money creation is taken away from private mostly privileged individuals and handed to the people, the collective. Yes, it's true the very rich won't benefit from getting lots of interest by simply keeping it in a bank. And so what? This will allow for a healthy economy where there is high velocity, high entrepreneurship and investment. (Although we could still guarantee a certain amount, or even larger amount, than we do now and allow banks to invest like they do now, of course, and therefore still provide interest to savers just like now) In any case inflation would be significantly lower than what is achievable in our current system and, as well, I would imagine more manipulatable than at present.

Plus we will have the benefit of interest repayments of nil. The UK currently pays over 30 billion a year in interest repayments to private individuals. Why are we paying banks (the largest buyers of sovereign bonds) for making money by typing into a computer, selling it to us at a profit and then buying our debt with that? This is madness to the highest degree!

And please don't say government can't be trusted to control money creation directly because you might as well argue we hand over the streets to the cosa nostra and I could argue you were an anarchist by the eternal right of logic. We have essentially chosen the far, far worse of two evils as our system!

Interest does more damage than just demanding more from all of us on a personal and federal level. Think about it, as money is destroyed when debt is paid back, the interest repayment to the bank has to come from an ever dwindling supply of cash in the system, and if you follow this logic to its inevitable conclusion you realize more debt is required somewhere in the system to service the old interest repayments or else the debtor goes defaults and bye-bye. As we get wealthier, someone is getting in debt. More people need to be in the red than in the black, forever, in the current system because when we spend money in our bank account, someone is getting into debt for us to do that.

That is why we need exponential growth, year after year. This is where our current unsustainability truly stems from. Hey, maybe I'm looking too deep into this, but to me the more I read about economics, the more this gets clearer. The system is a vast ponzi-scheme.

Oh and guys, please don't pick on one thing in my argument and dismiss the rest. I'll admit maybe I'm wrong at various points and I would appreciate your opinion, but it sends me crazy when you dismiss everything out of hand without taking the whole thing in.

Here's another challenging question:

Since market monetarist are generally positively disposed towards the efficient market hypothesis, does it follow that they take the rise in gold price as an indication that inflation will take off at some point? How do they resolve the contradiction between this and the relatively tame indication of expected inflation from things such as the TIPS spreads?


From what I've read gold is artificially lower in value than it should be through fractional reserve banking of gold reserves. Gold bonds are not backed 1 for 1 with gold bars more like 10 bonds for 1 bar of gold. I have read that the true quantity of gold kept in national central banks is a closely guarded secret. This is because most of the gold in the world is kept in one bank, apparentlys New York, where the world's ultra-rich (Rothschilds, et al) control the value of gold so that they have ultimate control over currencies (they are able to raise and lower the value of currencies by affecting the price of gold). Look it up there's quite a lot out there about this when I last checked.
 
I've been avoiding substantive posts due to looming comprehensive exams. The linked article is interesting; i have a few concerns with his modelling and will try to comment more when less busy. Briefly,
- dK/dt = profits? Why can't consumers invest?
- I agree with the role of disequilibrium, though of course I emphasize monetary disequilibrium
- I looked at his model briefly, so tell me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't look Lucas-structural which means it's useless for policy analysis (though possibly still useful for forecasting)
 
- I looked at his model briefly, so tell me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't look Lucas-structural which means it's useless for policy analysis (though possibly still useful for forecasting)

I'm assuming you're talking about this:

The Lucas critique suggests that if we want to predict the effect of a policy experiment, we should model the "deep parameters" (relating to preferences, technology and resource constraints) that govern individual behavior. We can then predict what individuals will do, taking into account the change in policy, and then aggregate the individual decisions to calculate the macroeconomic effects of the policy change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique

This is addressed in these paragraphs on the weaknesses of deriving macroeconomics from microeconomic foundations:

Microfoundations
Lucas’s observation that “Nobody was satisfied with IS-LM as the end of macroeconomic theorizing” pithily summarizes the key motivation behind the evolution of Neoclassical macroeconomics from the time of Keynes: “The idea was we were going to tie it together with microeconomics and that was the job of our generation” (Lucas 2004, p. 20). The major argument in favor of a micro-founded macroeconomics was that micro analysis could provide the “deep parameters” that were invariant to policy changes (Estrella and Fuhrer 1999; Estrella and Fuhrer 2003; Ljungqvist and Sargent 2004, pp. xxvi-xxvii ), in contrast to the parameters of large-scale econometric models which would be subject to drift as policy changed (Lucas 1976, p. 39). This led initially to Real Business Cycle models in which the entire economy was modeled by a “representative agent” (Kydland and Prescott 1982), and ultimately to New Keynesian macroeconomics (Gordon 1982; Woodford 2009).
Post Keynesians rejected the argument that macroeconomics could be derived from microeconomics (Kregel 1985). Though this position is contrary to Neoclassical practice, it is in fact supported by well-known but poorly understood Neoclassical research: the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorems (Shafer and Sonnenschein 1993). While these are portrayed in textbooks as arguing simply that “stringent conditions” are needed to ensure that a representative agent can be used to model aggregate behavior (Varian 1984, p. 268), their real import is that the “Law of Demand” does not apply at the level of a single market, even if all consumers in that market are rational utility maximizers:
Can an arbitrary continuous function … be an excess demand function for some commodity in a general equilibrium economy? … we prove that every polynomial … is an excess demand function for a specified commodity in some n commodity economy… every continuous real-valued function is approximately an excess demand function. (Sonnenschein 1972, pp. 549-550)
The fact that demand in a single market cannot be legitimately modeled as being derived from a representative agent (and thus subject to the Law of Demand) strongly implies that aggregate demand cannot be modeled that way either: microeconomic “deep parameters” are therefore lost in the interactions between agents. This is an instance of a common phenomenon arising from the interaction of multiple entities in a system, which physicists have dubbed “Emergent Properties”: the system itself cannot be understood from the properties of the entities themselves, since its behavior depends on nonlinear interactions between the entities. As Physics Nobel Laureate Philip Anderson put it:
The behavior of large and complex aggregates of elementary particles, it turns out, is not to be understood in terms of a simple extrapolation of the properties of a few particles. Instead, at each level of complexity entirely new properties appear, and the understanding of the new behaviors requires research which I think is as fundamental in its nature as any other… (Anderson 1972, p. 393)
Anderson continued that “Psychology is not applied biology, nor is biology applied chemistry” (Anderson 1972, p. 393), and Post Keynesians similarly assert that “Macroeconomics is not applied microeconomics”. Godley’s models work at the level of economic sectors—households, firms, the government and banks—while my models work at the level of social classes, in line with Andrew Kirman’s reaction to the SMD conditions that “we may well be forced to theories in terms of groups who have collectively coherent behavior…. The idea that we should start at the level of the isolated individual is one which we may well have to abandon.” (Kirman 1989, p. 138).

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...ncial-crisis-post-keynesian-macroeconomics-2/
 
He doesn't really address the substance of the Lucas Critique. As I see it, the Critique is in two parts:
1. Keynesian macro models of the 1950s-1960s were not policy-invariant: the coefficients on their parameters could not be considered constant in the face of policy change
2. Therefore, we need to construct models with parameters which are plausibly policy-invariant

Kydland, Prescott, et al took one approach to policy-invariant models: representative agent microfounded models. These suffer from aggregation issues but have the benefit of being Lucas-structural. Keen notes (correctly) the former but does not address whether his models fulfill the latter requirement. My point stands: his models aren't structural and hence have little bearing on policy analysis. (They still might be good at forecasting, but I draw a sharp distinction between forecasting models and policy analysis models.)

Edit: more precisely, he's addressing a related point. Microfoundations were the way the profession went in response to the LC. Microfounded models have some weaknesses: aggregation issues being prime among them. The quote rightly points them out. However, the above quote doesn't address my concerns.
 
I think your critique is valid and Keen should probably be viewed as a general skeptic of such policy invariant models.

Do you know of any policy invariant models that survive the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu critique?
 
Here's another challenging question:

Since market monetarist are generally positively disposed towards the efficient market hypothesis, does it follow that they take the rise in gold price as an indication that inflation will take off at some point? How do they resolve the contradiction between this and the relatively tame indication of expected inflation from things such as the TIPS spreads?

Here's my attempt at answering my own question: the answer is no. Gold is not rising because it is signaling a future rise in inflation. It is rising because it is offering itself as the natural competition to safe government bonds. As a result, it mimics the properties of such bonds: it turns into an interest yielding asset by rising linearly, and exponentially as the attractiveness of government bonds further deteriorates.

Does this make sense?
 
Here's my attempt at answering my own question: the answer is no. Gold is not rising because it is signaling a future rise in inflation. It is rising because it is offering itself as the natural competition to safe government bonds. As a result, it mimics the properties of such bonds: it turns into an interest yielding asset by rising linearly, and exponentially as the attractiveness of government bonds further deteriorates.

Does this make sense?


I didn't try answering the question because I'm not a market monetarist, and generally don't agree with their approach (to the extent that I know it) and so left it in case Integral was interested in answering it.

That said, gold prices go up mainly because a subset of people see gold as safe when the economy faces turmoil. As such you could call gold investing a flight to safety. But not for everyone. Generally speaking it is a flight to safety mainly among the subset of people who have a very poor understanding of investing. Now it may be much more sensible to invest in gold in places where there are few to no safe alternative safe investment opportunities. But the price of gold outside gold standard nations is volatile. And volatile price assets are not good safety assets.
 
My thinking is that gold is rising because it's viewed by some people as a safe asset, not because it signals inflation per se. I'll have more to say about gold in a few days, I think.

It's a good question.

What's the "secular" demand for gold doing these days? Normally in a recession it would fall, so the rise in gold prices are even larger than they appear; but I don't know how the developing world's appetite for gold has progressed since 2007.
 
Consumption

The consumption of gold produced in the world is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

India is the world's largest single consumer of gold, as Indians buy about 25% of the world's gold,[61] purchasing approximately 800 tonnes of gold every year, mostly for jewelry. India is also the largest importer of gold; in 2008, India imported around 400 tonnes of gold.[62] Indian households hold 18,000 tonnes of gold which represents 11% of the global stock and worth more than $950 billion.[63]

By the chart it looks like gold consumption is down notably across many countries. But up hugely in India (I saw a news article on some TV show about that, though I
don't recall which one, that India's demand for gold jewelry is way way up), China is buying gold for investment and hedging, Russia is buying for reasons I don't know. But it appears that overall demand is up, and it's primarily India that is the outlier driving the trend.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold#Consumption
 
Gold isn't volatile over the long term.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

Gold is worth a lot more than it is at the moment. This is because, as I've said, its value is suppressed through fractional reserve banking of gold reserves, as well as people not realising gold is perfect for maintaining your wealth over the long term - hence demand for currencies is is higher than gold as saving.
 
Of course, but if you wanted to be sure that you maintain your wealth for generations to come, without putting it at risk, then gold is by far the best way to do that. And not in gold bonds, because you might as well keep it in a bank in that case, I mean physical gold in your own safe (as I've said gold bonds aren't backed like for like with gold). Indians understand that, because it's basically maintained its intrinsic value for thousands of years and they know that.

In 30 years the dollar could be worthless, while gold will pretty much be worth what it is now.

And I see you guys ignore my previous post without saying I'm talking sh*t, so I should assume you don't have an answer to my idea of a better money system?
 
Your idea of a better money system has been addressed in other places. It is nonsensical. It improves nothing while making many matters worse. Inflation would be far worse. Bubbles would be worse. Instability would be worse.

The system we have, while flawed, as a whole works. All that is really necessary in this system is for the government to keep a lid on the private sector. They stopped doing that in the 00s, and you see the result. In your system the government has to micromanage everything. And they have immense incentive to get it wrong.
 
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