So after playing numerous Progress Peaceful Wide type games, I've noticed that happiness tends to fall into pretty predictable patterns for me. Here are some notes (for Immortal play):
Always good to show examples, so here is a perfect example I what I was highlighting as far as the early game:
So in this scenario I currently have 4 cities and 4 luxs (2 acquired, 2 bought from the AI....very expensively!!!). Notice that I am just 2 happiness below the global, very common to see on Immortal, I would bet good money that on Emperor I would be golden, so you can see how that tiny difference really does matter at this stage in the game.
Babylon has denounced and gone hostile, so clearly I need to raise an army to protect myself. But where to build the units? Every city I have except the capital has a -35% production penalty. Archers (not cbows) will take 5, 8, and....12 turns to build
So I'm going to switch my capital and two of my cities to unit production, and pray that I can secure that lapis with some growth cap to stem the tide.
Now I do want to note that my mistake here was letting Braga grow to 6. I should know better, 5 is sometimes ok (especially for Porto, normally my 2nd city can usually do it especially with nice terrain), but I really should have capped Braga sooner. Again, growth = death.
So how did this play out?
Babylon declared as we expected of course, hehe I think it was 1 turn later. I am pulling every unit I can towards the fight, including 2 spears that were sent to the east to kill a barb camp (this will be important).
So first, I get really really really lucky. My scout finds the barrier reef, giving me 2 happiness. This is literally night and day for me, increasing my production by 25% in my capital, and 35% in my satellites.
Then....I get unlucky. Without troops controlling that barb camp, a horseman hits my shore just north of the capital. He pops the TR, spawning a skirmisher. So now my forces are split as barbs in the middle hold off my troops to the north. Babylon also pillages a tea, spoiler my production monopoly, so another 10% prod lost.
Ultimately though I get walls in Porto (ignore that herbalist I was about to switch it to another unit), its too late, and Porto will fall. Its not the end of the world, but since I'm looking for a nice win to boost my ego after so many losses recently, I think I'll try again.
To clarify, this is not a perfect game by me. I made mistakes, and those mistakes got me killed. But I did want to show how sensitive happiness is in this stage in the game, and how 1-2 more or less happiness can really change how the game looks.