NotW LVII - Tempus Fugit (game thread)

[Cass_]

Vote Auto for now.

 

[Snerk]

Sneaky sneaky Al Sips, for now.

Meta on Auto is both for and against him. Lurking early game is normal for him. But keeping schtum when he's facing a lynch as wolf is also something he'll sometimes do.

 

[KingMorgan]

Again, sorry for my absence D1, late returning from a trip.

Taki seems to be outside his normal range, earlier it was in a scummy way but the last chunk of posts have been increasingly townish to my eyes, I could lynch him but not too keen at the moment.

The case on Auto seems a little thin, am I right in remembering there are only 2 or 3 posts from him? However that vote onto Lorenswald yesterday was highly suggestive, I really did not think it was coming from a townie place.

Zacks posting is odd, I don't like it. Whats the chances of randing wolf twice on the trot? I'll deffo be studying all Zackos posts with a Thesaurus.

Snerk, Surprised it took till day 2 for your rolefishing. Post 486 above stinks of misdirection

I'd probably have to Vote: Autoclys

 

[Snerk]

Snerk, Surprised it took till day 2 for your rolefishing.

Me too. But no pm makes my fishing all the more harder.

Post 486 above stinks of misdirection

Why?

I'd probably have to Vote: Autoclys

Why?

 

[KingMorgan]

Me too. But no pm makes my fishing all the more harder.

So you needed to make a post about it?
It's misdirection because I think ATPG made a point about rule confusion being a townie trait. Your post would be a good post for wolf Snerk to make.

I did not like Autos late vote yesterday and i prefer the weak case on him to the one on Jarrema.

Who are you voting for and why?

 

[Snerk]

So you needed to make a post about it?
It's misdirection because I think ATPG made a point about rule confusion being a townie trait. Your post would be a good post for wolf Snerk to make.

I didn't know PMing was against the rules when I posted it. Rule confusion is a Snerk trait, regardless of alignment.

I did not like Autos late vote yesterday and i prefer the weak case on him to the one on Jarrema.

How would you summarise the case on Auto though?

Who are you voting for and why?

Right now I'm in with a vote on Al for being quite un-chatty so far.

 

[Cass_]

Sorry, got distracted with baby and stuff.

Dead:

Spoiler :

Spaceman
BSmith

Alive:
21. Askthepizzaguy
--------------------------------------------------------
11. Lohrenswald
20. dicetosser1
19. Cuthillius* Claim
1. Kennigit* Mechanics focus/role theft target
14. Choxorn* Bus driver target
--------------------------------------------------------
8. Golden1Knight
3. Zack
6. Sprig
17. Lassie
--------------------------------------------------------
13. Takhisis
--------------------------------------------------------
9. KingMorgan- True null
12. DuffKilligan
--------------------------------------------------------
18. Newyn- If Auto is scum, Newyn is still null
22. Cass
23. atheotes- weird
5. Snerk- If Auto is scum, Snerk is a villager
15. Al Sipsclar- If Jarrema is scum, Al is likely to be a villager
16. Mat93- If scum bus driver, likely Mat93 villager but not a lock
--------------------------------------------------------
4. Jarrema
10. Autolycus
Murska

Expected mafia powers:

Spoiler :

1) Nightkill (not a team kill if we have a watcher)
2) Role theft (could be villager, but highly doubt it)
3) Bus driver (highly likely to be scum, any "town" bus driver really needs to holster it or use it as a doctor power, don't hold your breath about this one being a villager)
4) If true seer exists, godfather likely (not proven)
5) Roleblock (possible but unlikely to be combined with Bus driver)

Breakdown of leans list:

1) Askthepizzaguy- actually going to be clear to others besides myself this game without needing to be scanned based on role. EZ mode.

2) Lohrenswald- went into this extensively yesterday. To save time and space I'm not repeating myself here. This can be wrong but I probably never vote him. You'd need a guilty peek of him and a hard claim seer before I vote there, barring a catastrophe.

3) Dicetosser- (a) tone [not especially reliable but] (b) where he stresses words when he stresses words (c) how/why he's town-reading people and how/why he's accusing others and following up on those suspicions is quite consistent with his town game (etc)

4) Cuthillius- (a) Nothing pingy (b) Unforced essentially watcher claim makes him always die this game, I believe. So his role makes him a villager unless alive in the extremely late game. And I believe it's possible I was attacked and didn't die based on the probable jailkeeper type role. [Now strongly leaning town jailkeeper, I did after all claim not seer, and I'm generally town-read so this is a good pick for that player.]

5. Kennigit- (a) Nothing pingy (b) his focus all of d1 was on mechanics and his role, like a preoccupied townie (c) claimed target of likely-scum role-theft ability

6. Choxorn- While I can't claim he didn't ping me on d1, it was based on very little. I believe the scums have a bus driver, I believe if choxorn has a scanner or other townie power and I suspected him d1 he uses his power on me immediately unfortunately. So this isn't very strong but I believe his claim that he was bus driven to Mat93.

Those are my strong or relatively strong townies.

7) Golden1Knight- This feels identical to his town game and although it would be easy to replicate, I feel like his tone and attitude is 100% pure townie for him. Having towned with him a large handful of times and worked closely with him a couple times. This is as strong a read as Golden1Knight reads get. It can be wrong but I doubt it. Still, it's based on thin reasons so I can't put him higher, despite my strong feelings.

8) Zack- This read began thin and still is thin but getting more solid. He can fake frustration/paranoia/fill-in-the-blank emotion all day long and is basically impossible to lock clear based on cold reading him because that read will usually be wrong. However I feel his emotions are genuine and that means he's a solid town lean, but no especially high confidence level.

9) Sprig- (a) nothing pingy (b) Auto flips scum, Sprig is clear (c) 259 feels like a real town thought. However this is conditional on a thing, and not especially confident on my end. But that's where I think he is, odds-wise.

10) Lassie- (a) nothing pingy (b) thoughts feel like a free flowing villager. However Lassie's scum game should have advanced to the point where it is replicable for him, so I can't be confident here. Odds-wise this feels correct.

Those are my relatively solid town leans which I am not willing to bet my life on, but still strongly support and would strongly advocate against lynching today or soon.

11) Takhisis- I can't put him in my village yet, and I see what Zack is saying. But I think it indicates the other way for Takhisis. The little bit of orange is me saying I would not be especially surprised if I'm wrong, and that Takh is scum. I just don't think it's the case. So I'm putting him in my village on a provisional basis.

That's my village. Murska has been booted out because I get icky feelings re-reading him. So if I was wrong inside my original 9 picks, I think Murska is the candidate to beat.

Village up, Null down

12) Kingmorgan- I don't think he's an inactive scum but there's no way to tell for sure using in-thread data. He also posted why he missed d1 so he will presumably become active. I'm not comfortable pushing there because of the reasons why he's null.

13) I don't know Duff and I can't glean his alignment from his posts so far. If he's scum he can be posting exactly like this but there's no pings. I don't think he's scum but I have no reason to clear him and I wanted to learn more, which is why I targeted him. Even if I gain no info from targeting him, he may gain info, which can help me read him sometimes, which is better than nothing. I won't push here and I'll see if his sub is someone I can get a read off of.

Null but unwilling to vote up, Others down.

14) Newyn is very difficult to read and I get mild pings off of his posts. Will go into detail in a separate post. Maybe won't push it today because it's not strong.

15) Cass is not herself at all, though this can be because of IRL reasons. That means her posts when she does make them have to be especially villagery for me to clear her somehow this game. For now, I think she's outside her village range. Maybe won't push it today to give her that chance of being added, because if she posts, I should be able to add her sooner or later, if she's a villager. I'm confident I can read her properly with time and posts.

16) Atheotes is a little weird this game. For him, his day one was unusually involved, despite his low presence, possibly indicating he randed scum, but that's not super reliable. It's nothing crazy scummy or anything but I'm sensing some unusual vibes. Want to see where that goes with additional observation.

17) Snerk is really hard for me to read this game, however his voting day one could be revealing if he tried to lynch a scum. I would be willing to lynch his suspect before I would lynch him, on the basis of possibly clearing him if it was correct. Gives me strange vibes in certain posts.

18) Al Sipsclar is in that same category. If Jarrema is scum, and I think one of Auto or Jarrema are scum, then Al is probably clear. But he's tricky to read and gives me strange vibes in certain posts.

19) Mat93 is a very conflicted read. His posts make me feel mostly negative, but his reaction to me questioning him yesterday about his vote felt ok, and if he was the target of a bus driving attempt, with a possible vig in the game, I think it's super risky to bus drive an unknown power onto your own partner. It might be a scan or a vig. So, if the bus driver is a scumbag, Mat93 should be a villager often.

Negative/null but not pushing there up, Others down

20) Jarrema
21) Autolycus
22) Murska

Can't clear these folks and they give me almost totally negative vibes, and I'm semi-confident one or both of Jarrema and Autolycus are scum based on EOD1. Murska dropped like a lead bowling ball since my last read, which in retrospect was reading villager intentions into otherwise null posts, and not many of them. I feel his participation since then is un-villagery.

Should go into these folks in a different post.

I'm probably always lynching inside of Autolycus, Jarrema, and Murska today.

FTR I agree with the lynch choices and agree most with Lohr and Dice, Newyn , Jarrema, Auto and Murska. Can also follow reasoning on Cuth.

Somewhat disagree on Kenni and Zack as likely Town at this point - I didn't like Kenni's potential role-fishing yesterday and want to see what happens post his stolen-power claim, Zack as previously mentioned mostly ?sus reactions to Tak and Dice.

I'm never lynching you this game unless you survive to the end but I personally don't agree with your view that claiming is the best option.
There are usually better ways to prove yourself than giving up your power especially if your power is anything like mine which would be completely useless in the hands of scum.

I'm not overly familiar/confident in roles/balance/claims etc but I can see the sense in the bold, to a certain point. I'm usually against lynching claimed PRs but I've never played a game where everyone has a role. Are scum likely to have safe claims here?

Sneaky sneaky Al Sips, for now.

Meta on Auto is both for and against him. Lurking early game is normal for him. But keeping schtum when he's facing a lynch as wolf is also something he'll sometimes do.

Why Al Sips over Auto then? I don't disagree with pressure on Sips, but ftr he was quiet last game, copped a lynch for it, and was Town.

Again, sorry for my absence D1, late returning from a trip.

Taki seems to be outside his normal range, earlier it was in a scummy way but the last chunk of posts have been increasingly townish to my eyes, I could lynch him but not too keen at the moment.

The case on Auto seems a little thin, am I right in remembering there are only 2 or 3 posts from him? However that vote onto Lorenswald yesterday was highly suggestive, I really did not think it was coming from a townie place.

Zacks posting is odd, I don't like it. Whats the chances of randing wolf twice on the trot? I'll deffo be studying all Zackos posts with a Thesaurus.

Snerk, Surprised it took till day 2 for your rolefishing. Post 486 above stinks of misdirection

I'd probably have to Vote: Autoclys

Do you have any Town leans?

 

[Cass_]

Gun to head this is where roughly where I'm at

TOWNY
Lohrenswald
Dicetosser1
Cuthillius
Askthepizzaguy
Takhisis

NULL/NEED MORE
Golden1Knight
Snerk
Sprig
Choxorn
Mat93
Lassie
KingMorgan

NULL-SCUM
DuffKilligan
Al Sipsclar
Kennigit
Murska

SCUMMY
Newyn
Atheotes
Zack
Autolycus
Jarrema

I seriously need to get to bed. FTR I won't be back until evening after work and related chores tomorrow.

 

[Lassie]

@Cass
I like that you noticed my different behavior than last game, as in: it gives me an idea that you're paying attention, like I saw you very much did on many things in last game. <- this is also based on your other posts and things you question people.

"[/B]Lassie - feels considerably different to last game, particularly volume/out-there-ish-ness. Not a fan of the lack of activity in the build-up to EoD/abstention from the vote."

Last game(both here and on MU) didn't bring me much result, being all over the place and posting a lot, and I also kinda enjoy just having a game with this level of activity, after having been completely absorbed by other games just a while ago.

I feel fairly good about current reads, for what there has been to base them on.

 

[Snerk]

Why Al Sips over Auto then? I don't disagree with pressure on Sips, but ftr he was quiet last game, copped a lynch for it, and was Town.

The Auto wagon doesn't need more votes right now if we are to put pressure on other players as well.

 

[Cuthillius]

To be clear, I targeted ATPG with a town-aligned jailkeepish power last night, and am aware of the fact that he was targeted by a kill thereby.

That is all.

 

[Lassie]

Scum trying to take out the strongest player, who even claimed to be able to clear himself, not expecting him to be protected on N1...

I guess that looks good for any player I would consider competent at this game

 

[Cuthillius]

The Auto wagon doesn't need more votes right now if we are to put pressure on other players as well.

But why Sips?

 

[Kennigit]

I don't even care tbh if you guys are right about auto via luck, he has two posts. Both attempted jokes. I guess he did snap-bandwagon, but meh.


cass please answer the bolded in post 275. or acknowledge if you did already, have only skimmed very very briefly

 

[Kennigit]

whoever did steal from me, please claim in the thread


because instead of some garbage ATPG has of like whisper that he is a member of the order or something (there's some name for that role, different from innocent child), we can actually have 2 confirmed townies if you are willing to be open and freely discuss

or, at the very least, make yourself traceable so that if day 3 and day 4 come around everyone isn't just asking "where's poochy that thief guy kennigit talked about before being nightkilled n2 or something"



as a member of the order, we must protect all time streams. past, present, future, ad those ones we never talk about (protip: don't drink and timedrive)

 

[Snerk]

But why Sips?

Well he's being awfully quiet. But I can be persuaded otherwise if you've got something better?

 

[Kennigit]

Expected mafia powers:
1) Nightkill (not a team kill if we have a watcher)
2) Role theft (could be villager, but highly doubt it)
3) Bus driver (highly likely to be scum, any "town" bus driver really needs to holster it or use it as a doctor power, don't hold your breath about this one being a villager)
4) If true seer exists, godfather likely (not proven)
5) Roleblock (possible but unlikely to be combined with Bus driver)

It might not be a full role theft, heck it may just be a "future" roleblock (steal my ability and could return it later; may actually be set duration like 2 game phases just I was only told my ability was stolen). The person that stole it may not even know what my ability is.


But considering every single person has an ability it makes sense to have a town role to steal from the mafia's abilities at the risk of hitting a town (e.g. me). Especially if there is a Vareth-role that has godfather qualities (see as innocent, or untrackable, who knows)


But I'm betting it is some little chronomancer who is collecting abilities to put in his little time capsule with his high school sweetheart Vareth to open up in a few weeks to look back and say "look honey bunny, remember when we stole Kennigit's ability night one? Good times...."

 

[Zack]

don't have much time, but quickly before I go

what is dicetosser's scum meta? pizza if you (and I think cass?) are so sure he's town because he plays like this as town (i.e. his town meta is to play like scum), how would he look different if he was a wolf?

because all I see is a wolf playstyle, for reasons I already mentioned

 

[Arakhor]

But I'm betting it is some little chronomancer who is collecting abilities to put in his little time capsule with his high school sweetheart Vareth to open up in a few weeks to look back and say "look honey bunny, remember when we stole Kennigit's ability night one? Good times...."

A gay romance set on Temporal Prime? Sign me up!

 

[Mat93]

I tried to target Pizza, but something made me target Mat93 instead.

I can confirm this is true, and I received no noticeable effect from choxorn. Should I of done?


I'm leaning town on Tak, leaning town on Zack, town on atpg, cuth is pinging me but with the information available is most likely town IMO. Lassie is pinging me too, but Newyn I find most scummy right now, looks very hiding in plain sight for me. And the Auto wagon doesn't need to grow anymore with over half the day to go.

vote: Newyn


I think I'm mostly caught up now.