It is quite possible we will lose the gulf stream and get a whole lot colder.
Oh, the weather outside is...
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EgonSpengler
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Here y'go:
60,000 People Died from Blistering European Heat Waves, New Analysis Finds
Tens of thousands of people died during intense heat waves in Europe last summer, indicating that heat prevention plans aren’t protecting vulnerable populations
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England had 4,500 heat-related deaths during record-breaking 2022, official data show
There were an estimated 4,507 heat-related deaths in England in 2022, according to an official study on climate-related mortality published on Friday which showed some signs of an increase in deaths linked to hot weather.
www.reuters.com
But, as @Samson already pointed out, global warming could/will melt some of the Polar glaciers*, pour trillions of liters of fresh water into the North Atlantic, and submerge the Gulf Stream that provides Northwest Europe with its mild weather. Strictly in terms of Latitude, the UK lies well North of many Canadian cities, such as Toronto and Montreal. I believe the Northernmost 1/3rd of the UK lies North of Moscow. I'm not sure what the chances are, in the short, medium or long terms, but I think there's a non-zero chance that the UK could lose its moderate weather patterns and become more like New England and Ontario, with blistering Summers and frigid Winters. I think I posted elsewhere, but just in terms of average temperatures, Toronto is Barcelona in the Summer and Helsinki in the Winter.
* A quick Google search says that if the Polar ice cap melted completely, it would raise sea level by 65 meters. That's Waterworld, basically, where high-altitude cities are all that remain of human civilization. I'm assuming there are scientific projections out there about how much of the Polar ice would have to melt to, say, raise sea level by ½ a meter, and what the results of that would be. (And of course water expands as it warms, so global warming would raise sea level a little bit even if some magic prevented the Arctic and Antarctic ice from melting at all.)
EgonSpengler
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It's been mild here, so far this season. 37F/3C here right now, but it was 55F/12C yesterday. I haven't even turned on my heat at home yet. I benefit somewhat from being the middle apartment - the other night it was below freezing outside, but my place was 60F/15C. (It's also been sunny. Right now, I have the heat off and the Southeast-facing window shades up, and my office is 70F/21C.)
EnglishEdward
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There are also cold related deaths in England.
Whether there are more cold related deaths than heat related deaths is an interesting question.
Whether there are more cold related deaths than heat related deaths is an interesting question.
EgonSpengler
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It looks like Winter is currently worse, even if the heat-related death numbers from 2022 become more common.
Winter mortality in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics
Winter mortality compares the number of deaths that occurred in the winter period (December to March) with the average of the non-winter periods (the preceding August to November and following April to July). We present data by sex, age, cause of death, region and place of death.
www.ons.gov.uk
That could change, of course. iirc, I read that only 10% of homes in all of Europe have air conditioning, and I imagine those that do are concentrated in the Mediterranean countries. The number of homes in England and Wales that have A/C could well be zero, for all I know. It's also possible that extreme weather at both ends could increase, so heat-related and cold-related deaths could go up.
Cold here seemingly like much of Europe has been.
Kids are disappointed there is no snow.
Tried to explain that when the cold comes from the east the air is very dry and has already dumped it's snow somewhere else on the east coast or over the UK.
Sometimes when the cold air from the east meets the damp air from the Atlantic we do get snow but it often doesn't last as the damp air is warmer.
Wind from the north/north west can bring snow occasionally.
Kids are disappointed there is no snow.
Tried to explain that when the cold comes from the east the air is very dry and has already dumped it's snow somewhere else on the east coast or over the UK.
Sometimes when the cold air from the east meets the damp air from the Atlantic we do get snow but it often doesn't last as the damp air is warmer.
Wind from the north/north west can bring snow occasionally.
Zardnaar
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Cold Grey and wet this week.
bene_legionary
Believes in love
Today was a beautiful sunny day in Christchurch, although it got a bit chilly in the evening.
Yesterday we had the yearly school tradition of singing hymns on the school quadrangle. The morning looked lovely, with sunshine and clear blue sky – then by 1'o clock the clouds rolled over. When we all assembled on the quad it started mistily raining and steadily increasing in strength. By the time we left, we were a bit damper than when we walked on...
Yesterday we had the yearly school tradition of singing hymns on the school quadrangle. The morning looked lovely, with sunshine and clear blue sky – then by 1'o clock the clouds rolled over. When we all assembled on the quad it started mistily raining and steadily increasing in strength. By the time we left, we were a bit damper than when we walked on...
Zardnaar
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Warm down here. Crap most of the week.
GenMarshall
High Elven ISB Capt & Ghost Agent
Zardnaar
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Grendeldef
Trancerelic & coffeeholic
Winter may have come early this year as November was much colder than on average and for the 1st time since 2010 the whole country was covered in snow 30.11. While it feels a bit odd checking calendar & watching out of the windows the 24/7 lighting the snow provides is awesome. As is the scenery in general compared to the wet & miserable blackness more commonly experienced this time of year. And the long term forecast expects this to stay at least over the XMas so everything is cool, literally.
EgonSpengler
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I just read this morning that November was a couple of degrees below normal this year, which surprised me. I thought it have been pretty mild. It's going to be around 55F/12C today, for example. It was 43F/6C when I left the house this morning. I didn't even wear a coat. This morning's news was also that November was unusually dry, which I knew, but in a way that's also a surprise, because this is an El Niño year and so far 2023 has been rain-soaked. The Summer of 2023 was our 2nd rainiest in history, according to one local news site. But not November. I've no idea what that foretells for our Winter, though.
Grendeldef
Trancerelic & coffeeholic
Speaking of numbers it currently is -4C and has been like that for a week now though next week will be slightly colder at -8 to -12C which is fine. A bit more snow would be welcomed as it'd make making of cc skiing tracks much easier in places without snow cannons but still wouldn't hurt cycling or driving. I could take weather this for the next 4 months with a smiling face.
The lowest temp in November was -34.6C but locally only -15C or so.
I coundn't find this info in English but as it's mainly numbers & city names it shouldn't matter too much. The list of cities where the measurements have been made is a bit confusing as it has both the name of the city and the name/place of weather station so ignore the latter part. The site itself has pages in English as well.
November statistics
The lowest temp in November was -34.6C but locally only -15C or so.
I coundn't find this info in English but as it's mainly numbers & city names it shouldn't matter too much. The list of cities where the measurements have been made is a bit confusing as it has both the name of the city and the name/place of weather station so ignore the latter part. The site itself has pages in English as well.
November statistics
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Christmas in Wraeclast might be fun given how much things are changing there.
