One more small step towards the space elevator

[Save_Ferris]

Moderator Action: deleted advertising spammer post that bumped the thread

See? I wasn't the necro!

 

[Crezth]

Really? 8 year necro?

Wow. I am shocked and disappointed with myself.

 

[El_Machinae]

I wouldn't call it that yet.

I dunno. They're decently on-track. It's sufficiently funded, and the Chinese are decently capable of mega-projects. It's probably the most capable Moon program currently.

The Space Elevator might be "winner takes all", because of the huge advantage it gives the first success.

Tell me where to send my money and I shall break out the debit card .

My advice is to try to spend either $50 or 5 (dedicated) hours per year. Where would I send a cheque? Well, I'd buy the space-development books from authors who're working on these questions (to help fund their hobby, which is space research). The Planetary Society funds space research using donations. Finding your favorite space elevator teams lets you try to help get them sponsorship, etc.

 

[Winner]

I dunno. They're decently on-track. It's sufficiently funded, and the Chinese are decently capable of mega-projects. It's probably the most capable Moon program currently.

Meh, expense-wise, it's still in its infancy.

The Space Elevator might be "winner takes all", because of the huge advantage it gives the first success.

I fail to see how, you can build as many of them as you wish (well, up to a point).

I don't even think a space elevator will be possible to build before we have other means of (relatively) cheap transportation to orbit.



My advice is to try to spend either $50 or 5 (dedicated) hours per year. Where would I send a cheque? Well, I'd buy the space-development books from authors who're working on these questions (to help fund their hobby, which is space research). The Planetary Society funds space research using donations. Finding your favorite space elevator teams lets you try to help get them sponsorship, etc.[/QUOTE]

 

[betazed]

A rule of making predictions of when a desirable technology might be developed: take your most pessimistic guess and triple it

While that is true of some desirable technologies (fusion, general AI, levitating cars and warp drives are few that come to mind) in reality our predictions of future technological progress are usually ridiculously conservative. Think electronics and communications, genetics, astronomy or even fundamental physics. In each of these cases we are markedly ahead of where even our optimistic guesses were a decade ago. We now have truly ubiquitous computing, genome sequencing a million times faster, extrasolar planets by the hundreds and more every day, and who knows we will have zeroed in on Higgs by the end of the year.

As the old cliche goes "The future ain't what it used to be."

I suggest you do a experiment. Make some bold (but realistic) guesses about upcoming technological progress in five years time and write them down and throw it into a drawer. Put in a reminder in Google and then forget about it. Then five years later check up on it. You will be surprised.

p.s. I just recently got back into playing civ again. So I am back on cfc. Will try to post from time to time. It is good to be back.

 

[Winner]

While that is true of some desirable technologies (fusion, general AI, levitating cars and warp drives are few that come to mind) in reality our predictions of future technological progress are usually ridiculously conservative. Think electronics and communications, genetics, astronomy or even fundamental physics. In each of these cases we are markedly ahead of where even our optimistic guesses were a decade ago. We now have truly ubiquitous computing, genome sequencing a million times faster, extrasolar planets by the hundreds and more every day, and who knows we will have zeroed in on Higgs by the end of the year.

And our space programmes are going nowhere. No wait, they're actually going backwards right now.

Controlled fusion is another good example of how overly optimistic predictions can really embarrass their authors.

 

[betazed]

And our space programmes are going nowhere. No wait, they're actually going backwards right now.

Well... It depends a lot on how you define space program. By sheer numbers we have more probes out today from more countries than ever before. Just check the total number of science missions from NASA http://www.nasa.gov/missions/current/index.html. Add to that missions from other countries (China, India, Japan, Russia and EU) too. Our great observatory program is slightly lackluster currently but that will be remedied when James Webb comes online http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope.

I think you are thinking more in terms of human exploration. In that regard we have gone nowhere since the Apollo era. We have been stuck in LEO for 4 decades and that is unfortunate. But human missions is really only a small part of exploring space. However it is the part with which most people empathize with. Hence, it is a very important part which makes it doubly unfortunate that we have not gone beyond Apollo.

Controlled fusion is another good example of how overly optimistic predictions can really embarrass their authors.

Agreed (as I mentioned in my earlier post).

 

[Winner]

Well... It depends a lot on how you define space program.

Human spaceflight programmes.

By sheer numbers we have more probes out today from more countries than ever before. Just check the total number of science missions from NASA http://www.nasa.gov/missions/current/index.html. Add to that missions from other countries (China, India, Japan, Russia and EU) too. Our great observatory program is slightly lackluster currently but that will be remedied when James Webb comes online http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope.

I am well aware of that, and it's the only consolation we have. But if you really followed what is happening even in this department, you'd see constant desperate struggles for very little funding, a constant threat of cancellation of ambitious and thereby costly projects (even JWST!), a lack of support from the political leadership, and so on and so forth. It's disheartening.

We could have a 10 times as robust robotic programme. We could easily "mass produce" a certain type of "chassis" for the MER and send four of them every two years (loaded with different instruments) to explore as much of the surface as possible. We should be sending more probes to the outer planets, to the asteroids, to the Moon even.

For all the technology we have, we're doing precious little with it.

I think you are thinking more in terms of human exploration. In that regard we have gone nowhere since the Apollo era. We have been stuck in LEO for 4 decades and that is unfortunate. But human missions is really only a small part of exploring space. However it is the part with which most people empathize with. Hence, it is a very important part which makes it doubly unfortunate that we have not gone beyond Apollo.

Exactly. And we haven't gone anywhere not because we don't know how (or don't know how to learn), it's because the political system the West has constructed isn't really best suited to support this kind of endeavour.

 

[betazed]

@winner: I share your frustration with our political class. Perhaps that is the subject of another post.

 

[Murky]

That link isn't too great.

I did fine a nice youtube video of it.

Link to video.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

What would happen if a space elevator (the whole structure I mean) collapses?

 

[Winner]

What would happen if a space elevator (the whole structure I mean) collapses?

Read Red Mars for an answer

On Earth, nothing - the "cable" would probably burn in the atmosphere, so only the lower parts would actually hit the ground. The cabins attached to it would of course burn too, though some of the debris might survive the re-entry. The counterweight above the geostationary orbit would rise to a higher orbit.

 

[Crezth]

I suggest you do a experiment. Make some bold (but realistic) guesses about upcoming technological progress in five years time and write them down and throw it into a drawer. Put in a reminder in Google and then forget about it. Then five years later check up on it. You will be surprised.

You mean like you did with the carbon nanotubes? 'Cos they're still hard to manufacture and insanely expensive.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

If only they had not forgotten the secret of Damascus steel...

 

[danjuno]

Let's assign more engineer specialists to the assembly plant in Boston, that way we can get a great engineer to rush the Space Elevator.

 

[Patroklos]

That is Liftport's current goal. But only one country has a real Moon program right now.



Yep, "we" are no closer.

There's one country that's producing actual 200 GPa ribbons, though, in a macro scale.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/10/superstrong-10-20-centimeter-long.html

I guess that's what might happen when people dismantle and ignore science, and spend as much excess capital on luxuries as possible. If we cannot help our countries re-focus, we'll be watching a Chinese Space Elevator change the course of our future history. If we could get the average Civ IV player to help in small ways, we might change momentum.

Alarmist much? Materials science is still very much an American game.

 

[Crezth]

Alarmist much? Materials science is still very much an American game.

How do you figure?

 

[Kozmos]

USA#1 of course.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Entered thread expecting to see betazed.

Thread did not deliver. 0/10.

And I was getting ready to close it until I saw this:

While that is true of some desirable technologies (fusion, general AI, levitating cars and warp drives are few that come to mind) in reality our predictions of future technological progress are usually ridiculously conservative. Think electronics and communications, genetics, astronomy or even fundamental physics. In each of these cases we are markedly ahead of where even our optimistic guesses were a decade ago. We now have truly ubiquitous computing, genome sequencing a million times faster, extrasolar planets by the hundreds and more every day, and who knows we will have zeroed in on Higgs by the end of the year.

As the old cliche goes "The future ain't what it used to be."

I suggest you do a experiment. Make some bold (but realistic) guesses about upcoming technological progress in five years time and write them down and throw it into a drawer. Put in a reminder in Google and then forget about it. Then five years later check up on it. You will be surprised.

p.s. I just recently got back into playing civ again. So I am back on cfc. Will try to post from time to time. It is good to be back.

I hope to see more of you Betazed.

Moderator Action: Let's go for a discussion guys, and not just USA#!.

 

[Hygro]

Typical lazy Americans. Space stairs would be much cheaper.

Entered thread expecting to see betazed.

Thread did not deliver. 0/10.

This. I was super bummed reading through this
WHENALLOFTHESUDDEN

While that is true of some desirable technologies (fusion, general AI, levitating cars and warp drives are few that come to mind) in reality our predictions of future technological progress are usually ridiculously conservative. Think electronics and communications, genetics, astronomy or even fundamental physics. In each of these cases we are markedly ahead of where even our optimistic guesses were a decade ago. We now have truly ubiquitous computing, genome sequencing a million times faster, extrasolar planets by the hundreds and more every day, and who knows we will have zeroed in on Higgs by the end of the year.

As the old cliche goes "The future ain't what it used to be."

I suggest you do a experiment. Make some bold (but realistic) guesses about upcoming technological progress in five years time and write them down and throw it into a drawer. Put in a reminder in Google and then forget about it. Then five years later check up on it. You will be surprised.

p.s. I just recently got back into playing civ again. So I am back on cfc. Will try to post from time to time. It is good to be back.

OH SNAP!!!!!!!!!!! Play Civ4 with us online via CFC's OT chatgroup, http://fiftychat.tk/ ignore a couple of the less savory characters, you will be super welcome.