Erdoğan announced State of Emergency in whole country for three months. This gives almost unlimited power to governors (whom are appointed by interior ministry not elected) and government.
Just read that and was coming to post it. Very disturbing.
I meant to multi-quote you first comment to me as well. Somehow missed doing so. DFAT is all over the place in their predictions right now, especially since much of the staff is busy dealing with the fallout from Brexit and the South China Sea. The best they can come up with is a coin toss. Most of the more accurate prognosticators among my contacts - the people who, like me, predicted things like the Leave vote winning in the UK and Trump becoming the Republican nominee - think the coup is still on, and Erdogan is clamping down ever more tightly with this state of emergency in a desperate attempt to retain power. He's also offering to let the Kemalists loose on the Kurds and/or ISIL, and making contradictory promises to different cliques in the military.
At the moment it seems that he's retaining power for two reasons. The military hates the Gulenists more than they hate him, and the military is divided about what exactly to do if they replace him. Erdogan has done such a good job of destroying the opposition in Turkey that there really aren't any civilians capable of taking the reins, and the military doesn't want a dictatorship. That was one thing the Gulenists had over the Kemalists; a suitable figurehead. Yildirum and even Gul, the previous Prime Minister, are apparently being sounded out, but neither are willing to commit; probably scared of being included in Erdogan's round-up. Right now, I would put my money on Gul leading a coalition 'Government of National Unity' if a coup took place, but it's a very confusing situation.
This sounds like a someone turning a republic into a dictatorship.
Because it is. Erdogan's long-term goal has always been to install himself as a dictator - he is known to speak admiringly of Vladimir Putin to foreigners - and he has been nearing that goal for some time. That's a major reason the two separate coups have been planned; to keep him from becoming an Islamist dictator in the Khomeini vein, which seems to be his goal. If he was a militarist dictator like Saddam Hussein, I doubt the Kemalists would have a problem with him.
Makes me think about this famous exchange:
You're not the only one who has thought so. Those 14 ships are being dubbed "the Rebel Fleet" by DFAT. The Admiral in charge has been nick-named "Ackbar" by the same people.
Another version from Iranian media - Erdogan was warned about coup by Russian military intelligence, which was eavesdropping Turkish military communications.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950430001452
My sources say the Russians and Iranians both knew about the coup, but don't know if they tipped off Erdogan. The Chinese also seem to have known; they withdrew a LOT of their cash from the country in the hours before the coup. It's being kept quiet to avoid any conspiracy theories about Chinese involvement, but they seem to have begun withdrawing capital 8 hours before the attempt on Erdogan.
I don't know, there's something odd with that explanation (the one from australia). I just can't believe Gulen didn't knew. And if he had a hand in it, so did his hosts.
And it fits: the kemalists are nationalist: once informed about who was conducting the coup, they refused to be baited into joining it. That was the gamble by the planners of this coup, that failed.
r16's rants have more to it than being just rants...
Unfortunately I couldn't make heads nor tails of that rant. It hurt my eyes, and I just couldn't read it.
The Americans didn't know. DFAT is certain of that, and given Australia's heavy infiltration of the US intelligence services - and their requisite infiltration of ours - my contacts would know if they did. It came as a complete shock to them. They knew about the
Kemalist coup plans, but not the Gulenist plot. Gulen's communications are strictly monitored by the Americans; not necessarily for espionage, but mostly because they don't want Erdogan doing to Gulen what Stalin did to Trotsky. If he knew, they would know.
Gulen was apparently completely in the dark and was asking the Americans for updates. While Gulen certainly has his own underground in Turkey, the coup-plotters didn't share their plans with it, or with him. It's highly probable that the original intent was to tell Gulen before the coup took place, but the need to rush changed that plan. DFAT seems to think that one of the plotters had booked a plane trip to the US, via Germany, later this month, ostensibly to visit relatives there. It wouldn't take much to get a message to Gulen while there.
My contacts are getting unconfirmed reports that Gulen has been in contact with the plotters
since the coup failed, FWIW. He's apparently absolutely furious with them for botching it, as well as for launching it in the first place. Gulen seemingly wanted the Kemalists to launch their coup, then return to Turkey and become the President-in-waiting as the figurehead of a popular democratic movement. That is, incidentally, a much better plan than anything these conspirators came up with, and something Gulen would probably be really good at. He's not the coup-type, IMO.
