Das, those articles would be very interesting to me even if Russia is somehow not made a major player.
I wholeheartedly agree that a Pan-Islamic state is impossible. If anything, the Islamic world is looking like it will continue to factionalize. The revolutionary spirit of the times, wherein religion and fanatical nationalism are combining to create the thought that you have to go after any oppressor to your right with deadly force even suicidal force, will continue to grow even if America left the region. By 2053, there could be an independent Baluchistan, 3 or 4 Iraqs, a Palistinian state and many more. The success of the small Emirates(what with the UAE surging to the front of the world's thirst for grandiose with their breathtaking engineering projects and Qatar having a chance for the Olympics) also will give currency to the subdivision of Islam. Dar-Al-Islam will continue to be an Umbrella term. Neither Christendom nor Dar-Al-Islam is going to unite anytime soon.
On the issue of the African Union though, I would have to disagree Das. The aspiration for an African Union or a United States of Africa is a very stong movement even now. Ban Ki-Moon even mentioned it in a
recent article for the Asia Society(whoever is the PRC, this might be interesting to you too. Africa has a population of 1 Billion youth who are more wordly and dynamic than their predecessors. This super-majority has grown up seeing the atrocities that a divided Africa has had. They're tired of AIDS and Poverty and Wars, and the only major positive force in their lifetime is the African Union. But they would also recognize the inherent flaws in the AU, which is based off of the will of the previous generation and all to often helps keep corrupt leaders in power. The United Africa movement would be a grassroots movement. I quote respected African philosopher, economist and forecaster Sanou Mbaye:
"United States of Africa would...stem from the grassroots, through existing institutions of civil society like professional associations, trade unions, and other non-governmental organizations.
It is worth remembering that the people who were instrumental in establishing the best and most enduring union of states in history, the United States of America, were political activists, not heads of states. In Latin America, the only breakthrough that dented post-independence domination by the descendants of European colonizers came from a black freedom fighter and unifier, Simon Bolivar, who united the region before being forced into exile in Jamaica. Now, Bolivar has an heir in Hugo Chávez, and the Latin American political landscape is changing at breakneck speed under his inspiration and leadership.
Inspired leadership is crucial to any process of nation building, and Africans should look to figures such as Bolivar, Martin Luther King, Jr., Georges Padmore, W.E.B. Dubois, Kwame Nkrumah, and Cheikh Anta Diop to mount a resistance movement against their mostly corrupt and incompetent leaders....[this way] they [can] fulfill the dream of a common African identity and the establishment of a United States of Africa. "
Now Wangari Maathai, the 2004 Nobel Peace Laureate and presiding officer of the African Union’s Economic, Social, and Cultural Council (ECOSOCC) outlines that with debt cancellation and even a base empowerment of ordinary Africans, all of this can easily come to fruitition. The scenarios for a United Africa are very plausible and indeed almost likely. The idea of a efficient, unified Europe Superpower is about as likely. I'm not saying that that is unrealistic, I'm just saying this isn't either. The African's huge strides toward a common military and a common currency need to be taken into account. Richard N. Haass, former Director of Policy Planning in the US State Department, and President of The Council on Foreign Relations sees it as a very likely occurrence as well, especially if AU reform is carried out.
Former French Prime Minister Michel Rocard points out that the "twenty-first century could well bring faster global improvement in political ethics than at any time in the past" and goes on to point out that "in but half a century...Africa has eliminated more than half of the despots that have blighted its era of independence" and he predicts that will only speed up.
On a side note, he also give credit to the case for Indonesia in the same article: "The electoral process in Indonesia is reaching a level of equity and accountability hitherto unknown in that country."
What would need to happen is a building up of infrastructure and other instituitions for a decade or two, and then the United States of Africa would be ready to be born. It would have birthpangs(as America did), but an old African Proverb goes "when the spiders unite, they can tie of the Lion". If the African states unite, they would definitely bring great things to this NES.
Even if true, that just means that elephants are lazy, unmotivated slobs, which frankly makes their intelligence and dexterity very much negligible as far as we're concerned.
Faster progress in some areas, slower in others. And thanks again for such detailed writeups - you're clearly being one of the important shaping factors in this Pre-NES. 
