Pre-Thread: ImmacuNESV

Definitely interested. Also, Kozmos, I have to agree with Immaculate. Thorium has a huge buzz about it currently, but it is a technology in the concept phase, with (as far as I am aware) not a single pilot plant running today. Reading Immaculate's description, this world falls into depression in the next six months(!), preventing further R&D and investment.

Also, I don't believe your 'Transnational' argument either. There's no precedent, and there's no reason to believe that companies run by humans are any more prescient that humans themselves. Companies are controlled by stockholders, and stockholders are terrified of the unknown. If a global depression hit, I think companies would contract, not expand, particularly if governments enact the predictable step of protectionist tariffs.

Even without thorium in the picture regular breeders remain, which would make uranium wealthy countries still winners in the global calamity. India has plans for four prototype thorium plants I believe. (due to having a third of worlds thorium reserves) Not sure if there are two operational or soon will be.

Ah, but our economies are based on growth (full or empty world economics doesn't matter something that is indeed horrible) and with shrinking resources they have to turn to other ways to generate them and that includes R&D. Governments look for solutions and corporations are there to provide them. There are also privately held companies that could jump to grab these opportunities as they saw fit.

As well the growing disorder would give Private Military Companies more power as riots and chaos would grow and governments needed them more. It would be a downturn, but clear corporate survivors would emerge. The survivors would consolidate to further their chances of survival (economic Dawisnism? I'm just talking silly here because it's late and I have a heat headache) forming the first transnationals with their own small militaries. They would buy out the small countries first as they would be in most trouble. Eventually some of the smaller transnats would coalesce into a metanat, a corporation that could rival one of the G11. So I would see a future with a kind of a G11 countries and about as many metanats. But in a world where there is total 800 mil. people I suppose that is rather unfeasible.

Immac, it's not so much faith that I have in technology that makes me hard to accept the background but that the sudden energy crises is the flimsiest thing of the whole story when it should be the strongest. Where is the war and frantic fight for resources? Oil, uranium, renewables? The food crisis is unnecessary and would fit better if we operated on assumption of full world economics and that we overshot on the carrying capacity of Earth by 80% (10-12 billion people). Then people would start dieing massively in wars and starvation and ecological disasters. Throw in the fact that West invents longevity treatments, expensive ones and the whole rich-poor divide throws a few more levels of chaos. Oh god I am rambling and out of drugs.
 
Expressing intrest.
 
I wanted to put down a template for world affairs without wars (for the most part). Once i've put up that backdrop, i want to add the human dimensions (wars, etc). But i want player input for that... so that will be the next stage. I imagine great wars rocking the planet but havn't really got any specific ideas yet. thats why i want to mine the creativity and intelligence of the player community.
 
Once the polar cap melts take account for the oil findings there and the disputes that would follow.
 
World Economies

The depression gripping the western world in 2011 never abated. The European states continued to fall one-by-one, Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain had all failed, to one degree or another by 2012. The housing market in the US, Britain and Canada never recovered and every year there were fewer and fewer good jobs for a growing number off out-of-work people. Much of the western world’s populations were increasingly spending their incomes on a disproportionately larger and larger food and fuel bill and had less and less for the consumption that had driven their economies for decades.

The world never really recovered from the western world’s depression of the twenty-teens and by 2018, as the Chinese economic giant, often based on cheap exports, was faced with the two-pronged threat of greatly reduced foreign markets and rising energy and food costs, the depression spread to them and by the end of the year enveloped every nation on earth.

Increasingly economies are diverging and the prices of commodities are diverging with them. The economic price convergence that had begun with Islamic trade between Europe and Asia millennia ago and which was greatly accelerated first by the European naval-military complex and later the rise of steam and fossil-fuel based shipping was finally starting to unwind. No longer was it affordable to grow a nation’s food in a far-away nation or continually import manufactured products from far away; shipping costs were just too great. Globalization was being replaced with localization. In twenty-twenty five some shipping companies had begun exploring the use of sail-based shipping and this was found to be, in the new economy, fairly cost-effective, truly illustrating how far we had fallen. Today’s oceanic shipping continues to be, for the most part, sail-powered.
The fossil-fuel based manufacturing which dominated in the twenty-first century, by twenty-twenty was falling apart. Thorium atomic power and solar and wind-derived energy could provide some continuance of modern industry but their energy was so sought after that any product reliant upon energy for its production soon became much too expensive for anyone to afford. By twenty-third hand tools were replacing power tools, and what remained of heavy industry were moving as close as possible to where their raw materials and markets were located. Petroleum-based fibers were soon replaced by organically grown natural fibers, be they animal or plant and local labor-based manufacturing producing cloth, blankets, sails and ropes boomed. A general return to homesteading and self-sufficiency did create a market for wood lot, seed sales, draft animal breeding, bicycle manufacture and other businesses in that scale.
Larger extra-territorial corporations or governments are all closely tied to some source of energy production, be it atomic, solar or more rarely wind. These sources of energy are closely guarded and certainly worth developing militaries to protect. It is not a long leap of imagination to think that these militaries, in turn, would offer protection and organization to the surrounding homesteads, as well as whatever manufactured products they may produce in exchange for their food and often, labor. Smaller scale warlords performing the same function are common. The division of populations according to these localized industries and the formation of military power around localized energy production has, of course, led to the splintering of many of the world’s larger nations (as well as the smaller) with economic prosperity highly variable geopolitically.
Ultimately the world’s manufacturing and commerce, with a few notable exception upon which the few powerful elite build their influence, has returned to some semblance of what it was prior to the industrial revolution… or nearly so.

Technology

The technology of twenty-one-hundred, despite all that has happened, has advanced beyond what our ancestors of twenty-ten would recognize. There is a social and ideological difference in its implementation and dispersal however. It is rare to see technology openly shared among those capable of understanding it. The advantage a nation holds in military or manufacturing prowess is a closely guarded secret; too much desperation, too much ‘hard-times’ have made people suspicious of their neighbors’ envy.

One notable new development has been the introduction of direct cybernetic interface between an individual’s neuronal system and non-biological devices. For example, an individual might plug-in to a remote camera and see what it sees or a vehicle and pilot it with only a thought. The technology is, for the most part, only very rudimentary and incredibly expensive; only the smallest number of elite powers possesses such technology.

Computing, to varying degrees, has advanced considerably. Photonic (or optical) computing is much faster than electron-based computing and serves as a quantum leap in capacity and speed of computing. First-generation optical computing uses binary data storage, and while superior to pure electronic computing, do not offer the speed and data storage capacity of optical to optical computing. Again, few governments and corporations have access to this technology and those that do are reluctant to admit as much.

Cermets are the fusion of metals and ceramics. Advanced cermets typically have the best properties of both these materials and are used in bio-mechanical interfaces as well as industry, where they serve as effective cutting and brazing tools or protection from high thermal stresses. Additionally they have growing use in military applications where advanced forms of the material are said to be used in personal and vehicle armor providing both ballistic and especially thermal protection.

…to be continued…

Bio-steel


Nano-scale manufacturing


Politics, Rise of the Mega-Corporations, Wars and Conflict

i am open to a LOT of ideas here. I foresee canada and russia becoming superpower and subsequently collapsing and i've outlined a bit when some nations are going to return to pre-industrial levels... but otherwise things are wide open. I REALLY like the idea of nations being divided by ideologies and methods of survival more then race or language and can easily imagine that modern languages will probably evolve VERY quickly in the years between present and 2100. the same goes for culture.
 
Definitely sounds interesting!

Also, @OP:
High altitude areas retain less ice and as a consequence many delta regions have suffered due to reduced river flow and rising sea levels Indeed one-sixth of the world’s population, in 2100 was dependent upon meltwater from mountain glaciers and these over the course of the last century, have almost completely disappeared as they migrated to safer areas or succumbed to hunger or disease.

Shouldn't this be 2010 instead of 2100?

You can always ask me too, if you want that is :p

Same here...

This makes me sad for my future. :(

Me too. I wanted to play a Danish faction, then I looked at the map... gurglegurglegurgle.
 
The map doesn't show up for me. Do you have a link?

Also, I can't get on chat until late tonight, probably 8pm PST.
 
I have to say that the health system degradation would lead to plagues and such as well. So much of the health industy is based on plastics and high tech instraments (in the industrialized world anyway) that the lack of syntetic rubber (via oil), plastics, and the lack of electricity would destroy it.

This is not to say that the knowledge would neccesarily dissapear, but the ability to make most pharmaceuticals would, sterilization would be back to the age of dip it in alcohol, surgery would have to be conducted under primative conditions and for most of the world anesthetic would once more become give him a joint or drink some whiskey.

So aside from all of the issues mentioned before just another factor to think about.

*Most people do not realize rubber is mostly petroleum based and a lack of said rubber would be devastating. Plastics as well for that matter. Yes there is natural rubber and latex, but the plants that provide it would be nowhere up to providing it for the world on such short notice.

In 2005, close to 21 million tons of rubber were produced of which around 58% was synthetic.
 
Just found a very thorough paper discussing energy use per capita and the inherent instability of our system. Also mentioned is that Stephen "the Hawk" Hawking believes that civilization will meet a catastrophic failure by 2050.

This isn't just a game. This is a practice round to hone our survival skills.
 
That is because our economies are based on growth, higher efficiency just promotes more use. Makes new sources and alternatives more likely in the quest for profit, not less. Hawking says a lot of things unfortunately, if only he would go back to the area he is actually good at.
 
aliens?
 
Among other things. The media seems intent to latch onto his every voice synthesized word.
 
That is because our economies are based on growth, higher efficiency just promotes more use. Makes new sources and alternatives more likely in the quest for profit, not less. Hawking says a lot of things unfortunately, if only he would go back to the area he is actually good at.

Can't we just let the issue slip, you definitely have a more optimistic view of the future than most of the rest of us, but let us make our calculations and you can make yours.

That is a really interesting article by the way, a friend sent me the link. It illustrates our dependency on energy pretty well...!
 
Can't we just let the issue slip, you definitely have a more optimistic view of the future than most of the rest of us, but let us make our calculations and you can make yours.

That is a really interesting article by the way, a friend sent me the link. It illustrates our dependency on energy pretty well...!

Oh I'm not arguing it anymore, I've accepted it as is, I'm just trying to set ground for the rise of transnats, West depends heavily on private firms for research, there is only so much university labs can do.

Regarding technology projections there is good chance I'm wrong of course and we're all going to hell. I'd rather that not be true and continue believing in the infinite power of the singularity.

Also a 14 m rise of sea levels would necessitate melting of the entire western antarctic ice sheet and partially of the eastern sheet. The western could rise the sea level by 6 meters while the whole eastern could by 40 meters. Six meter rise would be bad enough, but a fourteen meter rise would probably solve a great deal of the population problem, especially if you construed that a thermal pulse activated underground volcanos and rose the initial 7 meters more or less instantly. Not a tsunami, but a tide that never retreated.
 
From what i read up to 70% of a 14m sea level rise with a world temperature change as i've outlined is due to the increasing volume of the same amount of water. warm water has a larger volume (PV=nRT). so consider that only 4-5m or so of the risen sea levels is due to the great melt. None-the-less, it IS significant.


Also, i really need ideas about how populations will respond to these events. Can you guys through out some at least semi-thought out ideas for how diverse populations will respond. As you do so, think about the faction or nation or warlord you want to play and how it fits into the history you are creating.

I'll ultimately write the history of humanity in the years from 2010 to 2100 but your help will definitely guide me...
 
I'm not sure if this helps but towards the end it speculates what a few nations would do after extreme climate change.
 
actually that article fits nicely with where I was heading already. I think only a few differences (but key) would be that Japan has little land to live on and use aside from its coasts and would become a population nightmare. China would probably fare a bit better than described though I think the communist regime would either be drastically stronger due to the need for security or fall apart completely. I doubt it would be anywhere between those two extremes.

Thanks for that.
 
Could people start posting descriptions of what they want to play, it might help with shaping the world.
 
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