Question about the demography of the Crusader States

[Yui108]

More specifically, I need to know what sort of men fielding capability the kingdom of jerusalem/acre had around 1260. I estimate their population at around 750,000 1/4 of all Syrian population. Thus, assuming they could field maybe 1000 knights off that and 10,000 foot soldiers. What does everyone think? I am trying to see if they could have tipped the scales at Ain Jalut, and my present numbers indicate they definetely could.

 

[North King]

If you had asked me this when I was home for Spring Break, I could have told you exactly how many knights. The rough guess is: not all that many. Probably less than a thousand knights in all the crusader states, and given normal ratios of infantry to cavalry, that'd be around 5,000 foot soldiers. The Crusader states in general had a rather massive manpower problem, and it's unlikely that even with a Mongol victory at Ain Jalut that the (rather silly) alliance could indefinitely hold out against the Arabs/Mamlukes/whoever.

 

[EnlightenmentHK]

If you had asked me this when I was home for Spring Break, I could have told you exactly how many knights. The rough guess is: not all that many. Probably less than a thousand knights in all the crusader states, and given normal ratios of infantry to cavalry, that'd be around 5,000 foot soldiers. The Crusader states in general had a rather massive manpower problem, and it's unlikely that even with a Mongol victory at Ain Jalut that the (rather silly) alliance could indefinitely hold out against the Arabs/Mamlukes/whoever.

I wouldn't say the potential/unsuccessful alliance was silly. The Mongols and the West had a common enemy between them. If they could pressure that enemy from multiple fronts, they had a much greater chance of success. Sheer distance, resulting in communications and logistical problems, made any meaningful coordination unwieldy and unlikely, but working together to any small extent still served both their mutual interests.

Of course the early Mongol/Western communication amounted to the Khan's demanding submission (some of the letters were really quite amusing) and the Pope's urging conversion, but some well intentioned, though largely unsuccessful efforts towards alliance were made later. The growing expense of and antipathy towards crusade in the West and the unstable leadership structure (return to east asia everytime an Ilkhan dies? Gonna halt some offensives) and later fragmentation of the Khanates ensured not much came of it.

Still, the Mongols took out the Abbasids and Ayyubids. Georgia and Armenia were vassals. Some Crusader states submitted and those who didn't weren't a major threat. The Byzantines weren't in conquest mode. The Mamlukes were really the only major threat the Mongols faced in the region. And Hulaga Khan had the armies to overwhelm them. But as became a common refrain with latter Mongol conquests, the IlKhan died and so the other Khan's returned east with the bulk of their armies to press their own claims. The forces the Mamlukes faced at Ain Jalut were only a fraction of Mongol forces. But by the time they returned, the Mongol empire had pretty much fractured and Haluga faced pressure from the north from the Golden Horde (or what would become that) which pretty much ended any serious pushes against the Mamlukes.

 

[Yui108]

Well, I was thinking a major victory at Ain Jalut could have served to cement the alliance. Kitbuqa, the Mongol #2 was a Christian and Hulagu's wife was one too. I think the Mongols could have gotten around the whole submission thing or the Christians could have just dealt with it nominally. I'm working on a tl right now in which they won Ain Jalut, and the Crusader States remaines alive.

 

[EnlightenmentHK]

Well, I was thinking a major victory at Ain Jalut could have served to cement the alliance. Kitbuqa, the Mongol #2 was a Christian and Hulagu's wife was one too. I think the Mongols could have gotten around the whole submission thing or the Christians could have just dealt with it nominally. I'm working on a tl right now in which they won Ain Jalut, and the Crusader States remaines alive.

The Mongols could've all been die-hard Roman Catholics, it wouldn't have mattered much. They had alot of Nestorian Christians, they were generally friendly to and tolerant of Christians, but their world was pretty much divided between those who have submitted and those who still needed to be conquered. It might be fair to say that they didn't much understand the concept of 'ally'. While temporary military cooperation in order to achieve their interests wasn't out of the question, such an arrangement would last only as necessary. Once it was Europe's turn in their sights (if they ever got around to it), such past 'friendship' would likely be of no avail. Their goal until the fragmentation of the empire was largely consistent; Global conqest.

If the Mongols had won Ain Jault and defeated the Mamlukes, every Crusader state (except Jerusalem, where some alternative arrangement might be made to quiet the West) would be forced to become Mongol vassals. They might maintain local autonomy and their existing Latin leaders, but they would be tribute paying subjects of the greater Mongol empire. And noone in Western Europe was likely to commit the resources to change that reality.

As for Ain Jalut specifically, I think it's highly relevant only by applying centuries of hindsight. Yes it essentially marked the extent of the Mongol empire's Western push, but I think its a stretch to call it the cause of that halt. The Mongols were able to field armies surpassing 100,000 men at that time. Of course by this time most were subject people armies, but they still had a strong core of steppe troops and there was really no match out there in skill or numbers. They fielded only about 20,000 at Ain Jalut because Haluga had to return east with most of his army when the Big Khan died for elections.

Its entirely likely that once Haluga returned he could've overrun the Mamlukes with massive numbers and rendered Ain Jalut a minor speedbump in history. What stopped him was the fragmentation of the mongol empire and his subsequent war with the Golden Horde.

 

[Yui108]

The Mongols could've all been die-hard Roman Catholics, it wouldn't have mattered much. They had alot of Nestorian Christians, they were generally friendly to and tolerant of Christians, but their world was pretty much divided between those who have submitted and those who still needed to be conquered. It might be fair to say that they didn't much understand the concept of 'ally'. While temporary military cooperation in order to achieve their interests wasn't out of the question, such an arrangement would last only as necessary. Once it was Europe's turn in their sights (if they ever got around to it), such past 'friendship' would likely be of no avail. Their goal until the fragmentation of the empire was largely consistent; Global conqest.

If the Mongols had won Ain Jault and defeated the Mamlukes, every Crusader state (except Jerusalem, where some alternative arrangement might be made to quiet the West) would be forced to become Mongol vassals. They might maintain local autonomy and their existing Latin leaders, but they would be tribute paying subjects of the greater Mongol empire. And noone in Western Europe was likely to commit the resources to change that reality.

As for Ain Jalut specifically, I think it's highly relevant only by applying centuries of hindsight. Yes it essentially marked the extent of the Mongol empire's Western push, but I think its a stretch to call it the cause of that halt. The Mongols were able to field armies surpassing 100,000 men at that time. Of course by this time most were subject people armies, but they still had a strong core of steppe troops and there was really no match out there in skill or numbers. They fielded only about 20,000 at Ain Jalut because Haluga had to return east with most of his army when the Big Khan died for elections.

Its entirely likely that once Haluga returned he could've overrun the Mamlukes with massive numbers and rendered Ain Jalut a minor speedbump in history. What stopped him was the fragmentation of the mongol empire and his subsequent war with the Golden Horde.

I know the reason they only fielded 20,000 men. I'm just saying a temporary alliance between the Mongols and the Kingdom of Jerusalem could do wonders for the Crusaders States chances. Antioch was already a semi-vassal state too the mongols, and they had it pretty good. Jerusalem may have maintained utter independence, but Edessa, and Antioch may have come under Mongol influence. But it wouldn't have lasted indefinetely. I still think it might even hurt the mongol's longevity, because the war between the Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde would be even more cataclysmic.