Red Dwarf Mafia: The Smeggening [Game Thread - Concluded]

[Winston Hughes]

I must sleep now, but if the Inquisitor would like to erase me from existence before I get around to analysing the higher posters, my wife would certainly appreciate it (and don't even think about posting that smiley, El Tacko...)

 

[spaceman98]

So, in summary, anyone with <10 posts is definitely scum.

Well that WOULD explain the large number of kills

 

[Double A]

The Inquisitor was a time travelling immortal, who seemed to be working his way through time and space. He was judge, jury and executioner who put people on trial to prove your life was worthwhile and that you had made something of it. If you were found guilty then your life was given to someone that never had a chance at life and you were erased from history.

I thought people were talking about a role archetype named inquisitor for some reason.

I must sleep now, but if the Inquisitor would like to erase me from existence before I get around to analysing the higher posters, my wife would certainly appreciate it (and don't even think about posting that smiley, El Tacko...)

Zack is married?

 

[remake20]

For what it's worth, I was targeted last night by someone who stole my only ability charge. Either that or it was taken because I was attacked, which might explain the fact that there were only two kills last night.

As for a vote today, I have to go with Al Sipsclar because of what I layed out yesterday. That and I'm not getting any strong scum reads from active players.

 

[landlubber]

Getting a town vibe from Winston, good work with that analysis. I'd have a look at some of the "where's Winston" crowd, especially Luizeu (whose prodding of Winston seemed OMGUS-y) and Cuthillius (who accused 4 people in one post without really substantiating any of those arguments). It seems probable that one or more of that crowd called on Winston to sound townie without actually having to use any real townie logic beyond that.

Luizeu for now.

 

[dragonprobably]

Elvis has left the building.

Poor Martin keeps getting killed off so early.

At this point I'm used to it.

 

[Autolycus]

Thanks for all your analysis, Winston, but if you give KingMorgan a pass for behaving like he normally does, you should probably give me the same. It's rare I'm highly active in the first few days. Out of the low posters,Murska stands out to me at this point for the overly measured tone that Winston called out, but I think Cuthillius feels more suspicious to me. The continued pressure vote on Jarrema feels lazy to me, and not in line with the more analysis intensive approach he's claimed.

 

[Cuthillius]

Getting a town vibe from Winston, good work with that analysis. I'd have a look at some of the "where's Winston" crowd, especially Luizeu (whose prodding of Winston seemed OMGUS-y) and Cuthillius (who accused 4 people in one post without really substantiating any of those arguments).

Where?

As to analysis, there hasn't really been anything that made me wonder about somebody, and I still think the strongest case is on Jarrema. Is it so lazy to switch off the most suspicious player because it's a bright new day? That being said, I'll go through somebody's posts because you asked. Any suggestions, or would you like me to go off of someone I think deserves it? Winston already did a great job with all the small posters, thanks for that. But there are still some players that haven't gotten much attention.

 

[KingMorgan]

Stop bogarting my free pass Auto.

Luizeu - Got to be a good suspect, OMGUS on Winston, adds a "missing" BL to another's suspect list, analysis of dead guy votes (classic scum play to ally/divert suspicion) found the post very fishy, finding majiffy funny rather than distracting seems anti-town.

Al Sipsclar, Sprig, Xym are all very quiet.

DoubleA has posted alot but all meaningless, Winston did a copy pasta and a sentence of analysis how can Landlubber call him town for that? Autolycus is a filthy lurker and should be lynched. BSmith is suspiciously AWOL with BLogic.

The rest are probably townish.

 

[Murska]

I guess I do like staying alive, though I'd much enjoy it if the wolves tried targeting me with some shenanigans of their own. The results might be enlightening.

As for what Kennigit said, he claimed to be a bulletproof. I probably wouldn't have trusted him even if I was around in time to reply. Bulletproof tends to be the most common wolf claim in my experience.

He says that his role mentioned it being roleblockable, which points to there possibly being a roleblocker on the wolf team.

Sprig. I've seen suspicion thrown his way for a few days now without sufficient pressure to follow up.

 

[Zack]

Yeah, get in here Backwards Logic!

 

[landlubber]

Where?

Post 424. Seemed especially meandering to me.

 

[Cuthillius]

Post 424. Seemed especially meandering to me.

That's three people I'm accusing, and one I'm requesting information from. Wchi he has duly given, and it was great.

As for the others? Mafia is not a black and white game. There's very rarely just one person who's suspicious. Generally there are a few. I'm giving my opinion on different cases. However, right now I'm under suspicion for being unsure. The people who have been convinced that someone or another is scum or not have not been really questioned, but just because I keep my options open and only say I think someone is definitely scum if I do really think so, I'm being attacked.

 

[KingMorgan]

Tally.

3 Jarrema - IFlea, Space, Cuth
2 IFlea - Luizeu, Takhsis
2 Luizeu - Landlubber, KM
Al Sips - Remake
Cuth - Auto
Sprig - Murska
BLog - Zack

 

[choxorn]

Cuthilius. His last couple of posts seem kind of flinch-y to landlubber's questions and throwing shade around at a lot of people but refusing to commit to thinking anyone is scum is a classic scum distraction tactic.

 

[spaceman98]

Why are people still voting Internet Flea? A joke PM is a bad reason to vote someone.

This post stands out to me:

I guess I do like staying alive, though I'd much enjoy it if the wolves tried targeting me with some shenanigans of their own. The results might be enlightening.

As for what Kennigit said, he claimed to be a bulletproof. I probably wouldn't have trusted him even if I was around in time to reply. Bulletproof tends to be the most common wolf claim in my experience.

He says that his role mentioned it being roleblockable, which points to there possibly being a roleblocker on the wolf team.

Sprig. I've seen suspicion thrown his way for a few days now without sufficient pressure to follow up.

How can someone be bulletproof (a passive ability) and roleblockable, if roleblocking cancles a person's active abillity?

 

[Zack]

I mean that's just semantics. It's totally feasible for the mafia to be able disable his bulletproof ability in some way.

 

[Pouter Pigeon]

King Morgan, you missed my vote for Sprig. And if he hasn't shown up by the time the day ends I'll switch to Cuthillis, since I still think he's scum and would rather lynch him than an inactive that I'm unsure about. Scum read > No read.

While I'm here, I'll say that Winston's lists could just as easily be a wolf collecting lots of data to over inflate his posts and make them look more content heavy than they actually are as they could be town actually trying to be helpful. Especially since going after inactives seems low risk to me, if that makes sense.

 

[Winston Hughes]

Pouter Pigeon

Spoiler :

Eh, any game is likely to have multiple levels of play. This is my first game here but I get the vibe that it's on the more casual ed. There are plenty of places where you can go if you want to play for the challenge or whatever, but in casual play like this being intentionally rude and insulting as a "strategy" to get reactions out of people generally doesn't fly, which in turn hurts town, since it directs the discussion away from wolf-hunting and towards trying to stop a player from using "arguments" that contain classy sentences like "you're in my stupid book," a fact which I think has already clearly been demonstrated during the day so far. It's easy enough to promote better gameplay without being aggressive about it, and more likely to get results since you're less likely to alienate people and they'll be more likely to actually ficus on your logic.

I don't think you're scum, so I'm not going to vote for you, but I do think you're going to hurt the town unless your behaviour changes, so I don't mind if other people do.

I think I'll Unvote and change to BSmith because I'm not a fan of posts that are votes and nothing else. There might lot be a lot to read on day one, either way, but at least an extra sentence or two gives you something to form an impression from.

Although the thoughts on Majiffy tally with my own, I don't see anything alignment indicative about them. The vote on BSmith is reasonable in itself, but the explanation seems a bit overdone under the circumstances.

I'm wary of this post. I'm especially not quite following the second part; now that there has been enough activity to start getting reads on it, how would it not be prudent to do so? I don't think that what hasn't yet been posted should prevent us from working with what we already have.

That and the fact that you want us to disregard the stuff dealing with the whole majiffy debacle make this post look pretty anti-information, which in turn is anti-town, and it's better than anything I have to go on so far, so I'll unvote;vote Kennigit

This in response to a Kennigit post which I thought seemed fairly townie in tone. Leaning red here.

I stand by my vote from yesterday; I think Kennigit's play so far has been anti-information, and active but not super helpful, plus he's appealed to statistics (i.e. "You are statistically as likely as anyone else to be scum") which is usually a red flag for me.

I've also got a vague suspicion on Cuthillis, but I can't put my finger on it; This post:

is the one that felt weird to me but I can't figure out why.

Snerk reads as town to me.

BSmith could very well be a wolf...I wish I knew a little bit more about his playstyle. Are the regulars here getting anything from him or am I just being paranoid?

I think that's all I've got for know....I want to look at the player list and see who's been slipping under my radar.

I had this one marked green on the first reading, but now I'm less sure. The case on Kennigit is coherent, but it's also rather easy. And whilst the thinking on Cuthillius and BSmith was similar to my own at that stage, there's no analysis deserving of town credit.

Not sure what to think about the votes against me...

[Kennigit posts]

For example, I went back and reread to try to see what you were talking about with the caution thing and I think I must be misunderstanding your point here, because if you look at the posts, Jarrema and I used almost the exact same language:

[Jarrema and Pouter Pigeon posts]

The only difference is that Jarrema did not believe voting for someone based on unkind behaviour was valid and I did (on the grounds that Majiffy's behaviour was disruptive and making it harder to get good reads)

Really all there is to it is that if I don't think a wagon is likely to catch a wolf I'm not going to join it. Majiffy's wagon couldn't even be sold as a pressure wagon, since he was already posting plenty and even genuinely (at least I think so) trying to help town under all of the rudeness. IMO, voting for someone I can't read is always better than voting for someone I read as town, regardless of whether or not they're actually being helpful. If other people wanted to vote Majiffy just to get him out of the game though, I wasn't going to fight them on it, since he was making things unpleasant.

As for this:

[remake post]

Classes are just starting so I can't always follow the game and immediately respond to things. I'll post what I can when I can post it, but that's all I'm going to promise. As for the section I bolded, what's wrong with posting my own thoughts even if they don't happen to correspond with the rest of the thread? That doesn't mean my suspicions aren't relevant to the game. Chalk this down as another post discouraging town discourse.

I still can't figure out why I'm reading Cuthillis as wolfy, but it hasn't gone away, and I think I'm going to add Choxorn to my suspect list, but I need to read more of his posts to be certain.

For now my vote is going to stay on Kennigit, because in my last game we caught the alpha by pressuring someone who seemed vaguely suspicious until they obliged us and made a long involved post to prove they were being helpful, but was actually somewhat misleading, and I think we might be seeing a similar case with Kennigit.

[Responding to Kennigit]
I was more trying to get him to back up his vague general assertions with concrete examples and scumreads. And in any case, why shouldn't I listen to someone if I think he's town? And what does that have to do with being overly cautious (your given reason for voting for me)? And more importantly, why is voting off the Majiffy wagon a problem in the first place, unless you are saying that Majiffy/Landlubber is a wolf? In that case, why do you think that is the case?

[Kennigit post]

Ok, point taken, bringing up a previous game is not super relevant/appropriate. I meant it less as a direct comparison and more as an example of "these are tells that I have seen work to catch wolves before, so I feel comfortable relying on them again in this case." Do you think that there is a reason that the tells I mentioned wouldn't work in this game?

Do the wolves ever kill someone because they're on to something though? Like I guess I've seen that but I've also seen wolves kill someone because that person's suspects were town and they wanted village to think that the target was on to something. On the whole it's just really WIFOM-y territory. If you want to vote for IF or Cuthillis that's fine but I think it should be for a better reason than the wolf kill. No reason to give them that kind of influence over the lynch. If you want to vote for me that's less fine.

Impressions from a cursory re-reading from yesterday, I still get bad vibes from Cuth, I think there's probably at least one wolf on the Kennigit bandwagon on account of its size but I'm not sure where or who, and I want to hear more from Sprig (there are others slipping under the radar but Sprig is the first to come to mind and I'd have to look at the player list and read a little closer to see who else I want to look at)

Also I agree with Zack re: Winston Hughes.

I disagree on Choxorn looking suspect, and I'd like to hear some reasoning for that, but overall these posts are plausibly townie, the line of thought seeming consistent without being too rigid. There's nothing that couldn't be faked by a moderately capable scumbag, though.

choxorn

Spoiler :

Vote: Legato Endless, I get a slightly more scummy read from him than from the other leading vote-getters, but it's really hard to get much of anything out of the Majiffy Madness.

If you want to be helpful, then why do you keep making vague comments about how you think your role might imply something about the game without going into any kind of detail? You act like you have useful information, but you're not telling us what it is, why it's leading you to guess things about the scum factions or about items. You're talking a lot, but you're not saying anything. Like Pouter said, you're being anti-information.

If you really mean what you say, then give us actual information to work with. If it's just something you don't want to say in public, at least tell us that and maybe PM someone.

Do you care to elaborate, Newyn? What do you think is going on between Kennigit and landlubber?

As to the unvote, at the time there was a 4-way tie between landlubber, Kennigit, Snerk, and Legato Endless, and I don't think there's any problems with him taking his vote off Kennigit and thinking about it for a bit, especially if he didn't really seem aware of how replacing Majiffy mid-day would affect Majiffy's votes. He legitimately seemed like he didn't know who he wanted to vote for yet, which given yesterday's events is understandable. He later voted for Jarrema, who had no votes yet, even though he was in the lead and Legato (who is known to be town) and Snerk were one behind him. I think that if landlubber were scum, even if he did want to save Kennigit, he'd try harder to save himself and try to put Legato or Snerk in the lead or vote one of the other candidates with 2 votes on them. Scum tend to try harder than he did yesterday to avoid dying.

[Responding to Jarrema] Really? That weak case you made on landlubber is the best case you could make on him, or anyone?

Might also be feeling pressure from Martin and other people saying they suspect him but aren't voting for him. I wonder a bit about this part, though:

[Cuthillius quote]

This paragraph meanders all over the place, he can't seem to decide whether he thinks Martin is town or scum, whether he's making a bad play or trying to make himself look better, and I'm not sure what he means by "outright scum accusations are not a good play from town."

It looks to me like Internet Flea and Takhisis are two townies going after each other and IF was just screwing around when he sent that PM to Takhisis. That's not really helping the town, but it doesn't seem scummy, either.

Kennigit's behavior today has been pretty scummy, though, with all of his vagueness and fluff and other weirdness I've mentioned in my other posts today.

Maybe a vigilante kill of some sort? MartinLuther would be a strange scum kill choice because he hadn't really been seriously going after anyone other than Kennigit and maybe Cuthilius and had done little else but try to figure out the Inquisitor, and several people thought his tiebreaking vote for Legato was scummy, but for pretty much the same reasons I could see a vig deciding to kill him.

What I find really interesting is that there were three kills N1 and only two last night.

I called him town yesterday, and he still looks good today. Pushing Kennigit three votes clear is a slight red mark, and, at a stretch, could suggest a connection with one of the other candidates. But it hardly moves the scales at all imo: if chox is a villain, he's doing a great job of fooling my scumdar.

Double A

Spoiler :

I only really noticed Spring's scummy posting trend in Auto's game, and god was it such a huge tell.
vote: Sprig

Zack immediately pointed out that Sprig was town in that game, but this kind of confusion is null at worst for AA.

wow that sure is positively enlightening
Kenning or whatever

I was trying to pump him for info in my own horribly ineffective way. I guess it worked.
unvote

I have to agree with Pouter on cuthillius. His first real vote especially gives me bad vibes.

It's just way too wifomy for my tastes. Pointing out the mafia could jump on a wagon to hide, right after he jumped on himself?
vote: cuthillius

With these posts, I'm starting to get a hint of possible scumminess, but nothing strong enough to move him into the red pile just yet.

I don't really know what to think about someone not wanting to publicly share info. Saying that kinda paints a big target on your head, but coming out with it could potentially make the target bigger. I pressed Pizza hard once or twice on that and it kinda screwed the town over so I've been pretty cautious about it. I guess Ken should get a chance?

This, on the other hand, earns big town points. It mirrors my own line of thought, and it's the kind of thing I wouldn't expect a scum AA to think of saying. That said, with nothing of substance coming forward since I put him on my town list, I am feeling a little less confident about him than before.

BSmith

Spoiler :

KingMorgan

Honestly I don’t have a lot of thoughts about the game yet. This is the beginning of D2 and aside from the D1 shenanigans there is still very little to go on. I have yet to know the impact of my action last night (didn’t get a PM, so I assume I don’t get confirmation) and I haven’t really had the time to send a PM to the person I performed the action on to get a reaction.

And before you (or anyone) asks, no I will not go into more detail on my ability.

Yeah. I am assuming that was an example. I already know who I want to send my 1 PM to. I just haven't had the time to do so.

It is kind of wonderful that we have so many new players and perspectives. I think it is terrific, really. I would expect more information to be forthcoming as we get further into this, but it would be thrilling if Kennigit was scum and we lynched him today.

Well, I already used my PM for the day, so that won’t really work. Of course I can still receive PMs from people, so if you want to send me a PM and tell me a little bit about yourself I wouldn’t complain.

One for the red pile, and it seems worse the more I look at it. A couple of games I've been in with BSmith recently, I correctly read him town by his thought processes on the first day or two. This is quite different. The thing about the PMs seems so forced, like he's trying to buy time to work out a fake claim. I'll add that he sent me a PM today, after my previous batch of analyses, asking a vague question about my role with no explanation of why he wanted to know. If there wasn't the PM limit in this game, I'd wonder if he was focused on networking behind the scenes. As it is, I'm thinking it's more like he's trying to avoid looking totally inactive, whilst contributing little to the public discussion. And that is something which definitely fits with his scum meta.

Newyn

Spoiler :

Unvote; Vote Landlubber because I don't see anything wrong with a vote on Kennigit.

Vote Kennigit because I still believe there's something going on between him and Landlubber.

Majiffy knew noone would take him seriously given his behaviour.

What I do see though is you moving off Kennigit late yesterday when you were both tied for the lead.

My vote is based purely on what happened at the end of yesterday. I was purely pointing out how the Majiffy stuff can be interpreted in different ways since Landlubber want to use it as proof that they're not connected.

Except he was in a unique situation where he didn't need to. His voting for Jarrema is the perfect safe vote. He moved off Kennigit to get him out of immediate danger and by not voting for the other tied people, he gives them little reason to push against him for survival purposes backed up by the fact that as Majiffy's replacement, people are naturally inclined to not lynch him.

[Responding to Kennigit talking about info swaps]

How is that town exactly? If the information you have shouldn't be shared publicly, say so. To me this just appears to be you trying to get information from other people while making promises of giving information yourself that you may not even honour.

Yet he's willing to "offer hard explicit swaps of info." What sort of information can't be shared publicly that can be traded for other information if someone wants to do it in private? This is just plain fishing as far as I'm concerned.

@Kennigit: It's because of the one PM per day restriction that I think you're fishing. It'd be easy for you to just give false information or even not respond if someone else contacts you first since you could just use the limit as an excuse.
Even facing the lynch you'd still rather take your "information" to the grave rather than share it publicly so I'm calling BS on your claims of been some sort of valuable town role.

All I'm seeing is a last ditch effort to try to weasel some information out of town before you die.

Them choosing not to respond can give away just as much. If you're not willing to give whatever you know freely, I doubt it's something that we can't live without.

No, if you're scum, the fact that someone is willing to swap information implies that they have information to share.
If you're town, I don't see what you possibly gain from offering to trade information rather than making a real attempt to save yourself by been more transparent with whatever information you have.

I've done enough tunnelling myself in the past to know it's not necessarily scummy, but the thought occurs that the relentless focus on Kennigit would be quite convenient from a scum point of view.

Snerk died at the midway point of the day. It's perfectly standard game procedure and whoever killed him could have done it at any time so I'm not sure what sort of crazy case you're trying to make spaceman.

Or you could just be overthinking it. I'm going to take it as a day kill and nothing more since a SK or scum does not need a reason to kill anyone anyone that isn't on their side is a viable target, they don't need a scan.

I'll take this opportunity however to share some free information with town though since this costs me nothing:
I'm the closest you're going to get to a vanilla townie without actually been one:
I'm a mason but there were only 2 of us. My fellow Skutter Arakhor died night 1.

Yes, because I'm totally going to claim mason if I wasn't in a blind game.
Unless the incentive against role reveals is scum gets to kill me for free, what can they do to me? Void my non existant powers?

This is the non-Kennigit stuff he's posted. The only point of interest is the claim, which is plausible, but also rather convenient. I wouldn't put him amongst my top suspects, but nor would I put him amongst my most likely townies.

Internet Flea

Spoiler :

Jarrema wanted us to lynch Snerk over Majiffy yesterday. My guess is he's a wolf who was trying to ride chaos.

Jarrema voted for Snerk when he was already voting for Snerk. He wasn't just calling for us to not lynch Majiffy, he was creating false momentum for the counterwagon.

Kennigit: What's your opinion on Jarrema?

[Quoting Zack]

This one's close enough to my argument that I'm going to jump in here.

Whatever his role, Majiffy was anti-town. The last game I hosted with a problematic player, the wolves were making plans around keeping him alive and disruptive as long as possible. So I think that Jarrema is likely a wolf even if landlubber isn't.

As to the re-vote, even if it was an honest mistake (which it probably was, with thirty people in the game you've got to expect someone will see it), it points to Jarrema prioritizing pushing Snerk's bandwagon over checking his old vote, which implies an investment in the bandwagon that town shouldn't have.

I didn't like this line of argument first time and marked a couple of those posts in red. Jarrema's response has been suspicious, though, so I guess it's possible it did hit the mark. There followed the PM thing with Takhisis, which I would read as more likely town than scum, simply because it seems needlessly risky.

Jarrema again. Him or pouterpigeon today.

[Cuthillius asking about the PM]

That's up to Takhisis. I'm not stomping on my own joke.

...even if it did get lost in translation because apparently that rhyme only applies to North America.

Best idea.

These last two are his contribution today. I don't like how he jumped in right away with the same case as before, and then left it at that. It's fair enough to give Jarrema a poke, but focusing on the same people all the time is only going to help the scum. Overall, my impression of him is similar to my impression of Newyn, but a little bit scummier.

 

[Zack]

You know, Visorslash is always saying how he can read Jarrema so well, and what with the wagon and suspicion on him, I'd like to hear Visor's thoughts on that. What's your read?