Referendum on Scottish Independence

[Tahuti]

53% Yes
47% No

 

[Borachio]

They do usually have exit polls. But apparently for this vote, no one has bothered to pay for one.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

I don't think they're allowed to publish exit polls until after polling has ended, in any case.

 

[Flying Pig]

Nobody's allowed to report them, so what would be the point?

 

[Borachio]

Hmm.

Today, Scotland is making a momentous decision, which could end the 307-year history of the union – and because there’s no exit poll, we’ll all be guessing when it comes to working out how the decision was made. We can’t, of course, use the actual ballots for this as they’re anonymous.

If the polls turn out to be wrong, and yes wins, we won’t know whether it’s because 16- to 17-year-olds, given the vote for the first time, turned out en masse, or whether it’s because of a last-minute change of heart among pensioners (who currently lean towards no).

This detail and data is what lets academics, journalists and politicians alike work out what really happened and how voters act. No other way of getting the information is nearly as reliable.

One way or another, Scottish voters will make history today. For the sake of saving a few tens of thousands of pounds, we’ll never really know why the vote turned out the way it did. We’ve been sadly short-changed.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

 

[Antilogic]

To alleviate some of the tension. I guess when you have poll closings in multiple time zones, you can discuss the exit polls from the early closings while the late closings are still coming in.

 

[MacAttack]

that is ridiculous, no exit poll?

 

[Peck of Arabia]

The Guardian can be hyperbolic at times; I'd hardly call a lack of polling data a "democratic deficit"


If anything what with 16 and 17 year olds voting I'd say there's a democratic overabundance, amirite? #What'swrongwith21

 

[Tahuti]

I'm still inclined to think Scotland will vote yes because I am convinced the No-side will be plagued by voter apathy either result.

 

[Flying Pig]

that is ridiculous, no exit poll?

As I said, no broadcaster is allowed to report on the referendum until close of play so that they don't influence it. With that in mind, there's little point.

 

[Peck of Arabia]

I'd be interested to know if there might not be a "Shy No voter" effect, much like the Shy Tory vote in 1992 What with the Yes campaign seemly more vocal a lot of people might have told the pollsters Yes, but in the secrecy of the polling booth voted No.

 

[Pangur Bán]

This referendum is bizarre. Widespread reports on twitter of people are crying at the polling booths.

 

[Pangur Bán]

I'd be interested to know if there might not be a "Shy No voter" effect, much like the Shy Tory vote in 1992 What with the Yes campaign seemly more vocal a lot of people might have told the pollsters Yes, but in the secrecy of the polling booth voted No.

The Shy No is what makes the press discount the alleged advanced Yes have from higher turn out. Both the Shy No and the Newly-Voting Yes keep open the possibility that one side will win by a larger margin than forecast. I think the pollsters have tried to weigh for this already, but they can't predict the extent of either since there is no precedent.

 

[luiz]

As I said, no broadcaster is allowed to report on the referendum until close of play so that they don't influence it. With that in mind, there's little point.

The same rule applies in Brazil but they still take exit polls to be able to give the results a few hours before the official count is released. In the British case considering they'll only be released tomorrow it makes even more sense (it only takes like 4 hours to release the official count in Brazil, so we always know the result on the same day of the vote).

 

[Harv]

that is ridiculous, no exit poll?

I am not from England or Scotland, so cannot speak for them specifically - but no - no exit poll. I think the philosophy is the results of the exit poll might influence the vote.

EDIT:

As I said, no broadcaster is allowed to report on the referendum until close of play so that they don't influence it. With that in mind, there's little point.

Oops - Looks like somebody has spoken already.

 

[Quackers]

I couldn't find it on this thread, here is "dat speech"


Link to video.

Is that the best speech of his career? It may just tip the "no" camp into victory.

 

[Borachio]

Exit polls have previously been published - after polling ceases but before the official count is released. There's no reason why an exit poll couldn't have been carried out for this referendum. Apparently, no one thought it worth the expense.

 

[ParkCungHee]

I'm still inclined to think Scotland will vote yes because I am convinced the No-side will be plagued by voter apathy either result.

I'm going to side with this. The polls are too close to call, but the Yes campaign has the momentum, and more importantly, it has the excitement, sentimentality and optimism behind it. And that can count for a thin wedge in the voting booth.

 

[bhsup]

I really don't see how no exit polling is in any way harmful to democracy. So nobody knows the results, or even estimates of results, for a few more hours. Big deal. That in no way invalidates the election results.

As far as whether it was an unexpected surge of young voters, surely you all have voter rolls to show who voted, yes? So check the voter rolls. You immediately know if more young people than expected voted.

 

[shadowplay]

The "no'' vote.

The "yes" vote.

 

[Quackers]

A few zingers from Brown's speech:

And that is the best principle that can govern the life of our country today. And our patriotic vision up against a nationalist vision that has only one aim in mind: to break every single constitutional and political link with our friends and neighbours in the United Kingdom and we will not have this.

And let us tell the undecided, the waverers, those not sure how to vote, let us tell them what we have achieved together.

We fought two world wars together. And there is not a cemetery in Europe that does not have Scots, English, Welsh, and Irish lying side-by-side.

And when young men were injured in these wars, they didn’t look to each other and ask whether you were Scots or English, they came to each other’s aid because we were part of a common cause.

And we not only won these wars together, we built the peace together, we built the health service together, we built the welfare state together, we will build the future together.

And what we have built together by sacrificing and sharing, let no narrow nationalism split asunder ever.